Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 180554 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 154 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY TROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 835 PM EDT FRIDAY... SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING INTO EASTERN KY WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT AND FOLLOWING NW FLOW SHOULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER AIR ALOFT OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS REMAINS QUITE DRY AS INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS QUICKLY FADED SO THINKING OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THIS INIT FEATURE MAY BE LESS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LACK OF UPSTREAM SHRA OFF REGIONAL RADARS SUPPORTS GOING WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NW OVERNIGHT AND ONLY CLOUDS ELSW OVER THE WEST. DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE KEEPING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART. GIVEN LAGGING 85H COOL ADVECTION PLUS BETTER MIXING OVERNIGHT...BUMPED UP LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FOR SATURDAY...WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST...GUSTY AT TIMES. WILL ENTERTAIN CHC POPS MAINLY FOR THE WV MTNS...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE HIGHLANDS OF VA AND FAR WRN VA SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE...TEMPERATURES AT 85H TAKE ABOUT A 5-7 DEG C DROP. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED...AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS SHOULD BALANCE THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY TESTING 70 IN THE PIEDMONT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY... SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH DECENT UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACCOMPANYING THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL IS PROGGED TO BE 850 MB AIR AS COLD AS -2 TO -4 C. THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AS LOW AS THE MID 30S IN PARTS OF THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THIS REGION. AT MOST...ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY MID-DAY SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN AND DRIER AIR ALOFT ENTERS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALL WHILE 850 MB WINDS START INCREASING AGAIN FROM SOUTHWEST. IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND IN THE EAST WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FORM SOME PATCHY FROST...WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING COVERAGE A LITTLE GREATER THAN PATCHY. THE WARMEST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND POINTS EASTWARD. MONDAY NIGHT...OUR NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENTER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS...AND MILDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A DANVILLE TO BUCKINGHAM VA LINE MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. LOW TO MID 40S FOR LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE EAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY... MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING OUT NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...DEEPENING IT...AND CUTTING IT OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THANKS TO A PROLONGED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FETCH. ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ON TUESDAY WHEN THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION...AND THEN BEST CHANCES SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION...CLOSEST TO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A SOME MODERATION ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY... SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...TURNING WINDS TO THE WEST. UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. KBLF AND KLWB WILL START THE TAF PERIOD GOING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN SCATTERED CLOUDS AND A CEILING...BUT THE TREND IS FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER. ENOUGH MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET FOR GUSTY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 14Z/10AM AND 22Z/6PM. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS AT KLWB AND KBLF WILL LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORT WAVE CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY THEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND DECENT LIFT FROM 21Z/5PM TO 06Z/2AM AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PROGRESS AS FAR EAST AS KROA AND KBCB. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WESTERN SLOPES. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND WILL DIMINISH AND CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW CROSSES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH MORE SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RETURN OF MVFR CIGS A GOOD PROBABILITY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...JH/PM SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AMS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.