Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 142013 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 413 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SE TX WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 320 PM MONDAY... SHOWERS STARTING TO ENTER THE WRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST LOCAL HIGH-RES FAVOR SLOWER TIMING TO THE EAST THRU DUSK...BUT BY MIDNIGHT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS SERIES OF UPPER VORTS MOVING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFT FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO VA. APPEARS THUNDER THREAT WILL STAY ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN INSTABILITY IS WEAK. GOOD JET DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT EASING THE FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z-15Z TUESDAY AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON. DESPITE FRONT MOVING THROUGH APPEARS ENOUGH LIFT AROUND THE BACKSIDE WITH SOUTHERLY JET TO KEEP THREAT OF RAIN WELL INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RUSH OF COLDER AIR WORKS IN ABOUT 2-4 HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT CHANGING ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GIVEN WARMER GROUND THE SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE RIDGETOPS ABOVE 3000 FT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED FLOODING GIVEN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING...ALTHOUGH SPEED OF FRONT MAY HINDER IT SOME. STILL QPF LOOKING ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER SEEMS LIKELY IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. EVEN THE RIVER ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE NOT TAKING ANY RIVER STAGES ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN THOUGH...GIVEN AMOUNTS SEEM SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK. THE OTHER ISSUE SHOULD BE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS 6 HR PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 12 MB ARE EXPECTED. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS UP IN WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS. WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE RUN OF THE MODELS AS CLOUD COVER WILL TEMPER SOME OF THE GUSTS ABOVE INVERSION. HWO WILL MENTION WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL. AS FOR TEMPS WILL BE SEEING SLOW FALLING AT BEST OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW...WITH SHOWERS HELPING TO COOL IT SOME. TOMORROW WILL BE MILD IN THE FAR EAST BUT TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO THE FREEZING MARK INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY DUSK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY... H85 TEMPS PLUNGE BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...NEARING -12C PER THE GFS. MOISTURE DRIES OUT RATHER QUICKLY ALOFT...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN HOUR OR TWO OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER WHERE A QUICK HALF INCH OR LESS MAY FALL ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY FALL FOR A BRIEF TIME DOWN TO BLUEFIELD...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY....WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE...AND H85 JET NEAR 50KTS SHOULD PRODUCE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NW NC/EXTREME SW VA AT THE VERY LEAST. POSSIBLY A SMALL WINDOW TUESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH WIND CRITERIA GUSTS NW NC. 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS QUICKLY...AND MOS GUIDANCE IS SOLIDLY AT OR BELOW 32F FOR LOWS WED MORNING EVEN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE. BECAUSE OF THIS ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND SOMETIMES LOWS COME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THIS SETUP. THUS THE CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE MAY BE MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...SOUTHSIDE/NC PIEDMONT. MUCH BETTER CHANCE NORTH OF THIS REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS IS PRETTY MUCH LOCKED IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY SUNNY DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS EXPECTED. WITH LESS WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS WED PM...CONDS MAY BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE...WITH ANOTHER WATCH NECESSARY WED NIGHT/THURS MORNING.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY... WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDWEST EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST...AND WEDGING HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY DEPARTS THIS WEEKEND. WITH A RATHER DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...QUESTIONABLE IF THIS MIDWEST TROUGH PRODUCES ANY PRECIP ONCE IT ARRIVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. OP GFS IS FAR MORE WET THAN THE ECMWF. THUS...POPS WERE KEPT RATHER LOW. A ZONAL UPPER FLOW TAKES SHAPE BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UNEVENTFUL AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY... VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SINK TO MVFR THEN IFR THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS. VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD DROP TO HIGH END IFR/LOW END MVFR. A TSRA IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE/THREAT OVERALL TO HAVE IN TAFS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WEST AND FINALLY EXIT EAST OF THE MTNS BY 15Z TUESDAY...AND OUT EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE MODERATE SHOWERS AND AT TIMES HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. ON AVERAGE VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE IN IFR/MVFR. ONCE FRONT PASSES THE BLF AREA SHOULD SEE LOWER CIGS UPSLOPE EFFECT...AND INTO LWB AS WELL WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTING CIGS BELOW 5H FEET. EXPECT RAINS AND SOME THUNDER TO LINGER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO TUESDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN FAST IN THE MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY EVENING WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SMALL WINDOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAY SEE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY KEEPING MVFR CIGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. VFR THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NW. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS SLOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE DAY FOR NOW. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059. NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-020. WV...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...KM LONG TERM...KM AVIATION...WP

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