-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 152300
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
700 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO WORK IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

FRONT JUST EAST OF LYH/DAN/SIF...WITH SPOTTER REPORTING TEMPS
DROPPING FROM 68F AT 2PM TO 53F AT 245 PM NEAR REIDSVILLE.

STILL DEALING THOUGH WITH SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT TO LIFT THIS ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY
EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH IS SENDING COLDER AIR
RUSHING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME WITH SNOW AND SOME GRAUPEL
OR ICE PELLETS REPORTED. STILL GIVEN WARM GROUND NOT EXPECTING A LOT
OF SNOW...COULD GET SOME BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH UP TO 1-2
INCHES AROUND THE HIGHER RIDGES OF ERN WV INTO FAR SW VA.

THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS EVENING AND CURRENT WIND HEADLINES
STILL LOOK REASONABLE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUDS
INVERSION LOWERING THIS EVENING SHOULD BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO 45 TO 50
MPH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EITHER SIDE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL FAR ENOUGH DESPITE THE SFC WINDS STAYING UP
TO ALLOW FOR OUR FREEZE WARNING TO VERIFY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WORKS FROM KY/OHIO OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. WIND WILL SWING TO TO THE
NORTHEAST THEN EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING TONIGHT WITH
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
WHAT WE HAVE HAD AS 8H TEMPS DROP TO -5 TO -12C TONIGHT THEN MODIFY
TO NEAR 0C BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S...WITH 40S AROUND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND...LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS COMBINED WITH WED PM DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...WILL
LEAD TO A VERY COLD THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RECORD LOWS
THREATENED. DRY WEDGE WITH EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL PERSIST UNTIL
SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH/WEAK
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TOWNS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BECAUSE OF THE
UPSLOPE FLOW BOTH DAYS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT LLVLS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT
SPRINKLES THROUGH SE WEST VA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER
SATURDAY MORNING THAN WED/THURS MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH FILLING IN BEHIND FRIDAY`S WEAK BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY
COVERS NEW ENGLAND AND THE ENTIRE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN...THIS HIGH MAY EVENTUALLY PARK OVER NEW ENGLAND
SETTING UP ANOTHER DRY WEDGE PER THE ECMWF. THUS...SUNDAY MAY BE
COLDER THAN SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH JUST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH ELIMINATES THE EASTERLY COMPONENT/DRY
WEDGE...GIVING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND A WARMER SUNDAY.
WILL GO BETWEEN THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. THE
PATTERN REMAINS DRY AND BENIGN...UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS. WENT
WITH CHC POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT
AT THIS TIMERANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 635 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER
AIR SWINGS IN FROM THE SW EXCEPT ACROSS THE SE WVA LOCATIONS
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MVFR TO OCNL IFR IN LOW CLOUDS. POST
FRONTAL RAINFALL REMAINS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST BUT STILL APPEARS
MOST PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET IF NOT SOONER. OTRW EXPECTING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CLOUD BASES THIS EVENING WITH ALL SITES SCATTERING OUT OR GOING
TOTALLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
MAY LINGER ALONG THE BLF-BCB ROUTE EARLY WHERE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT. NW WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
QUITE STRONG INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND BECOMING LIGHT TOWARD DAWN. APPEARS COULD STILL SEE GUSTS TO
35-40 KTS IN A SMALL WINDOW THIS EVENING ESPCLY AROUND ROA-BCB AS
SKIES CLEAR AND STRONGER MIXING DEVELOPS WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR ALOFT CROSSING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS
INTO FRIDAY KEEPING WIDESPREAD VFR IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK UNDER LIGHT EAST TO NE FLOW.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS
SLOW AND WEAK ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE DAY FOR NOW. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. OTRW VFR FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING
THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 640 PM EDT TUESDAY...

HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE RISES ALONG MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO MIDWEEK.
MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED ALONG THE DAN RIVER BASIN WITH
LEVELS FORECASTED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT SOUTH BOSTON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE DAN AROUND DANVILLE
AND PACES AS WELL AS RANDOLPH ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER WILL
SEE BANKFULL CONDITIONS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
AT SOUTH BOSTON INTO LATE THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 358 PM EDT TUESDAY...

APRIL 16TH RECORD LOWS

ROANOKE 24F 1943...FORECASTED LOW 26F.
LYNCHBURG 27F 1943...FORECASTED LOW 27F.
DANVILLE 27F 1950...FORECASTED LOW 30F.
BLUEFIELD 23F 1962...FORECASTED LOW 21F.
BLACKSBURG 24F 2008...FORECASTED LOW 23F.
LEWISBURG 25F 2008...FORECASTED LOW 21F.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ022>024-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ014>017-022.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ003>006-
     019-020.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WP
HYDROLOGY...KM/WP
CLIMATE...JC/KM