476
FXUS61 KRNK 260852
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
452 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to dominate the area for the next
several days resulting in hot and humid conditions, but will
gradually weaken. As it does so, afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will increase in coverage into the weekend. A
cold front may cross the area early next week bringing
temperatures down closer to normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Heat advisory Noon-7PM for the Roanoke Valley eastward.

2) Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with
marginal risk for severe and excessive rainfall.


High pressure which continues to result in above normal
temperatures is gradually weakening...the subsidence inversion
aloft is showing signs of letting thermals break through during
the afternoon. Yesterday was rather active over southside VA
and into the piedmont of NC. The combination of weakening
subsidence and convergence from a degrading upper low which
moved inland from the Atlantic allowing for strong to severe
storms during the evening. Similar conditions today will again
lead to storm development this afternoon and evening. The
degrading upper low is positioned over AL/GA caught underneath
the weakening anticyclone centered over the OH/TN Valleys. A
deep easterly flux of moisture is streaming west bound off the
Atlantic, this very moist environment ripe for thunderstorms
once we reach convective temperatures during the afternoon. CAMS
suggest storm development will initiate along the spine of the
Blue Ridge then propagate westward with the mean wind, albeit
very slowly per forecast mean wind under 10 mph.

Both CAPE and DCAPE will be at a premium today...strong daytime
heating leading to SBCAPES above 2500 j/kg and DCAPES of 1000
J/KG. Though vertical shear will be weak, steep low-level lapse
rates and precipitation loading could support isolated wind
damage with downbursts from mid afternoon into the evening.
A marginal risk for severe storms with potential for excessive
rainfall are being highlighted by SPC and WPC.

Similar to yesterday expecting heat index values to push 105
degrees from the Roanoke Valley eastward. This area under a heat
advisory from Noon through 7PM.

Tonight, loss of daytime heating will bring temperatures back
down along with demise of the deep convection. Looking at a warm
night with patchy fog where it rains today and within the
relatively cooler mountain valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1. Hot and humid through the weekend, with daily chances of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

The upper ridge that been holding over the eastern US will start to
flatten and weaken through the weekend, though flow around the
surface high will continue to advect moisture and warm air into the
region. Thus, hot and humid conditions will persist through the
weekend, though a few degrees cooler than earlier days this week.
The additional moisture and plentiful daytime heating will keep
chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast each afternoon
and evening through the period. For Friday, the greatest chances
look to be along and west of the Blue Ridge, as the terrain helps to
trigger some convection. A stalled front will drape over northern
VA, which will also serve as a focus for thunderstorm development.
As this feature lifts northward through the weekend, showers and
storms will become more scattered for Saturday and Sunday. Damaging
wind gusts will be the primary hazard for any storms that do
develop, though some small hail is possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Hot temperatures and daily chances of showers and thunderstorms
continue.

2. More widespread thunderstorms possible Tuesday with the passage
of a cold front, which may also bring some relief from the heat.

The upper pattern becomes much more zonal by the beginning of the
work week, with a trough developing over the Midwest by Monday,
which will track towards the eastern US by Tuesday, bringing a cold
front towards and eventually across the area. Most likely timing for
this front at this time looks to be Tuesday into Wednesday, and so
there is a higher chance for more widespread coverage of
thunderstorms on Tuesday. Behind this front, a bit of relief from
the above normal heat is expected, as the airmass behind the front
looks to be drier and slightly cooler, bringing temperatures in the
upper 70s in the west to upper 80s in the east, and dewpoints in the
low 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Mainly VFR conditions expected for much of the TAF period for
all terminals.

Exception being some LIFR fog at LWB and possibly MVFR at
LYH/DAN/BCB during the early morning, and any local sub-VFR
associated with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Winds will stay mainly under 5kts and variable in direction
under the high pressure through Thursday night. Thunderstorms
may produce gusts of 25-40kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure should maintain VFR conditions into early next
week outside of any storms and late night/early morning fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ022-023-033>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ004>006-020.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PM