-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 070328
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1028 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PROGRESSES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE FOR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREA NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO WEST VIRGINIA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1015 PM EST...

AT 03Z...SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DEEPEN AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FEATURE LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE PICS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AS WE
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH
12Z...BEFORE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST.

00Z GSO SOUNDING SHOWS TEMPS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LAYER...AND ISOTHERMAL...MEANING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
SNOW AND/OR SLEET IN OUR NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MPING
AND SPOTTER REPORTS CONFIRM PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS SLEET IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SO WHILE SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE FORECASTING SOME HIGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...FEEL
SLEET WILL EAT INTO THE SNOWFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER...WITH THE TRENDS
IN THE MODELS FOR COLDER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES...SNOW/SLEET OR
SLEET WILL LINGER LONGER INTO THE MORNING. AS A RESULT...ADJUSTED
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS HIGHER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.

WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...FREEZING RAIN THREAT
HAS LESSENED...EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE RAP/18Z GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL USHER IN WARM NOSE OF WARM AIR. FOR NOW
THERE WILL BE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY/WARNING AREA...BUT
FAR SOUTHWEST VA...GRAYSON AND CARROLL COUNTIES WILL NEED TO
MONITORED CAREFULLY IF FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPS THIS FAR WEST.

WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY
FRIDAY. NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE LAST TO WARM
UP...AND THUS MAINTAIN THE WINTRY MIX LONGER AS COMPARED TO OTHER
PARTS OF THE AREA.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST THURSDAY...

LOOKING TO FRIDAY EVENING...ANY RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BE CONFINED GENERALLY EAST OF A DANVILLE TO LYNCHBURG LINE...AND
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TO EXIT THE FORECAST REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT
20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE SPEEDS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WILL BE LOWER. THE CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH MORE
SPRING LIKE...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

WILL SEE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING EARLY MORNING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS THAT WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TRAIL OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF GREENBRIER COUNTY.
WHILE COOLER...SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE EARLY HALF OF MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM IS WARM...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST HELPING TO SHOVE H85 TEMPS NEAR +10C OVER OUR REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE NEAR THE ARKLATEX TO
FORM A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS ARE AS COLD AS -18C AFTER THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST SOLUTION WITH THE ECMWF SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AT H85.
REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SE WEST VA. ATTM...NEXT
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS VERY COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EST THURSDAY...

LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
LEAST AT KDAN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO FZRA/IP. SOME IFR CIG/VIS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE A BCB OR EVEN ROA AS PRECIP SHIELD MOVES NORTH.
A DEVELOPING MILLER A TYPE LOW WILL START TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
DRIVEN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LIKE A WALL SO IT WILL BE A QUICK
TRANSITION TO MVFR...THEN TO IFR/LIFR. KLWB/KBLF WILL BE ON THE
FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM SO EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE LIGHT. EXPECTING
ALL SITES TO SEE A TRULY MIXED BAG OF PCPN...WITH PL AND FRZA
BEING THE MOST COMMON. FZRA APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR
KDAN.

WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN AFTER 12Z AND PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WILL BE
SLOW TO MATERIALIZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... SYSTEM EXITS OUT TO SEA
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH PRECIP ENDING. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO VFR
AFTER 06Z SAT.VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007-
     009>014-018-022-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ015>017-
     033-034-045-059.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ032-043-044-
     058.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ024-035-
     046-047.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...KM/MBS/WP