Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 261746 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1246 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL PASS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN END TO MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1155 AM EST THURSDAY... THE AREA CURRENTLY UNDER CLOUDS SKIES THAT HAVE STARTED TO BECOME MORE THIN...AND THUS A BIT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE IS COMING THROUGH. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE PIEDMONT. HAVE NOT MADE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HIGHS...BUT DID ADJUST UPWARD MOST AREAS BY AROUND TWO DEGREES BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TRENDS AND 15Z LAV MOS GUIDANCE. WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND HELP INITIATE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHERE MELTING OF SNOW IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO BE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED TO NIGHT TO ADDRESS A REFREEZE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE. THAT DECISION WILL COME CLOSER TO THE RELEASE OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. AS OF 850 AM EST THURSDAY.. THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW LAST NIGHT HAS EXITED THE REGION AND IS NOW SKIRTING THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. NO ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...AND THE WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED. THIS AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. AS OF 635 AM EST THURSDAY... QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE WEST GIVEN CURRENT DECREASING TREND IN SNOWFALL. WILL REPLACE WITH AN ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FOR RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW AND SLICK ROADS. ALSO LOWERED ADDED AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OUT EAST AND LESS ELSEWHERE. THINK CAN LIKELY DOWNGRADE THE EASTERN WARNING BY MID MORNING AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY... SURFACE LOW OFF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WILL ZIP QUICKLY NE EXITING OFF THE OUTER BANKS AFTER 12Z BRINGING MOST ACCUMULATING DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE DRY SLOT SEEN ON SATELLITE PICS FINALLY WINS OUT. HOWEVER WITH SNOW ONGOING WILL KEEP THE CURRENT HEADLINES AND ONLY ADJUST AMOUNTS A WHILE LONGER AS THINK CAN PERHAPS DROP MOST AROUND 9 AM TO ALLOW WARNINGS/ADVISORIES TO RUN THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. ONCE THE WAVE EXITS AND DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES OFFSHORE...WEAK NW FLOW TO ENSUE BY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM VORT LOBE/CLIPPER THAT WILL PUSH EAST UNDER THE UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH. AFTER A BREAK IN RESIDUAL POPS OUT EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER AXIS OF UPSLOPE AIDED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY SPOTTY NATURE POPS UNTIL PERHAPS THE WAVE AXIS CROSSES THIS EVENING WHEN WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELYS...WITH LOW POPS EVEN OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE. LATEST LOCAL RNK-WRF EVEN TAKES SOME OF THESE PATCHY SNOW SHOWERS OUT EAST BUT GIVEN ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WILL HOLD MOST POPS WESTERN THIRD LATER TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE IN. OTRW A RATHER CLOUDY...DAMP AND CHILLY PERIOD INTO TONIGHT WITH ANY SUN PRODUCING A BUMP IN HIGHS TODAY GIVEN DEEP COLD AIR STILL WEST AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION. STILL APPEARS HIGHS MOSTLY 30S TODAY UNDER LIMITED SUNSHINE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS OVERNIGHT UNDER CLOUDS...SUPPORTING LOWS MOSTLY TEENS FAR WEST AND 20S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY... COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THEN WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING US QUITE COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS BEEN HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION AS THE WEDGE BUILDS IN...THEN LINGERS SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE WEDGE THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THIS BUT BELIEVE IT IS WORTH SLGT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GIVE US ICE IN THE CLOUD SO EXPECT JUST SOME FLURRIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST AND OUR WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION APPEARS TO HOLD OFF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT ONE MORE MODEL RUN TO SEE HOW THE COLD AIR WEDGE WILL BEHAVE AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT BRING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. IF THE WEDGE HOLDS FAST THIS WILL INTRODUCE PTYPE ISSUES SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY... LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THERE MAY BE SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOLD BELOW FREEZING. AT THIS POINT...ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MODEST AS WINDS SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO RISE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ESTABLISHED TO START THE DAY MONDAY... AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN IN WELL OVER A WEEK...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA... SHIFTING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPE. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...WEDGING AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS...AND PUSHES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE COMBINED WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE AS PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WOULD MAKE FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY... SNOW HAS BEEN ENDED ACROSS THE AREA FOR ABOUT THREE OR FOUR HOURS NOW. HOWEVER...IN ITS WAKE REMAINS PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. VSBYS THOUGH WERE PRIMARILY VFR. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST BUT STILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT...850 MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF KLWB-KBLF LINE...AND PERHAPS SOME AS FAR SOUTH AT KTNB AND KGEV. CIGS ACROSS THE AREA WILL TREND TO IFR LEVELS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR LIGHT FOG. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS CLOUD BRIEFLY YIELD SOME MVFR VSBYS AS WELL. ON FRIDAY...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT TREND LESS IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL START MIXING TO THE SURFACE SO THAT A PREVAILING 10 KT WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH 5 TO 10 KT COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE DOWNSLOPING AFFECT WILL YIELD A TREND TOWARD DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE TO FLURRIES. VFR COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE THAT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE ONE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY PARTS OF THE AREA. ON THE HEELS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT ALL OR PARTS OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO AND THROUGH TUESDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...DS/JH SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS/NF AVIATION...DS

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