Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 140548 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 148 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL TRACK EAST TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY MONDAY EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING NORTHEAST TO ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 845 PM EDT SUNDAY... SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER SW TRAJECTORY WITHIN A SUBTLE INVERSION ABOVE 85H. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THIS INVERSION LAYER WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING FROM SW TO NE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER MIDNIGHT PER LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN. APPEARS AREAS OF A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL END UP FROM ROUGHLY ROA TO TNB BY DAYBREAK WHERE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY -DZ/FOG DEVELOP JUST PRIOR TO DAWN PER LOCATION OF THE BEST SOUTHERLY JET/UPSLOPE. HOWEVER SINCE STARTING OUT SO DRY AND HAVING SOME SOLUTIONS SHOWING MUCH LESS MOISTURE...WONT EXPAND PRECIP MENTION ANY FARTHER NE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHILE BOOSTING CLOUDS SOUTH THRU NW LATE. OTRW PC TO MOSTLY CLEAR TO INIT BEFORE CURRENT PATCHY STRATO-CU OVER N CAROLINA EXPANDS NORTH WITHIN THE INVERSION BY MIDNIGHT...AND THEN QUICKLY INCREASES LATE AS THINGS MOISTEN. STRONG SOUTHERLY JET WELL AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS WELL BY DAYBREAK SO BUMPED UP WINDS ESPCLY AROUND BLF AND POINTS SW. THIS MIXING SHOULD ALSO KEEP SOME OF THE RIDGES ABOVE 60 FOR LOWS...WITH 50S ELSW AS CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE VALLEYS FROM REACHING THE 40S TONIGHT. MONDAY MORNING THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL STILL BE WELL WEST OF US ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH JET ENERGY AND SFC CONVERGENCE PUSHES INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY WITH UPPER VORT MOVING ACROSS TO KEEP SHOWER CHANCES ABOVE 50 PERCENT...WITH LESS THREAT EAST OF LYH/DAN UNTIL AFTER 4 PM...WHEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. MODELS VARY ON TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES...BUT IN THE BIGGER PICTURE ALL PAINT AN INCREASINGLY WET MONDAY WITH HIGHS COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NC OVER TOWARD THE SRN BLUE RIDGE OF VA...TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NEW RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL SEE 70S BOTH OVER THE SE WV AREA AND ALONG/EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 205 PM EDT SUNDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING AND WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING...SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION ARE THREE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. FIRST...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...AS WELL AS THE GRADIENT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEVERAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A 55+KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...EXPECT THAT THE STRONGER SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DRAWING THESE WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE SWODY3 PLACED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE UP TO 10 MB...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS SPEED ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. SECOND...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST ARE...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND HIGHER RIDGES. A LONGER DURATION OF HEAVIER RAIN WOULD NOT BE A FLOODING PROBLEM WITH SPRING PLANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...MAY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES...SOMETHING THAT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. USED A NON-DIURNAL CURVE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF QUICKLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 8 DEGREES PER HOUR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER PASSAGE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGER MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY SUNSET. ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE WITH WARM GROUND. SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WEDGING AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST OR A LIGHT FREEZE IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE FOR POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECENS MEAN WITH HANDLING THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ITS MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY... CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL FORM ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE FOOTHILLS BEFORE 12Z. THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY THAT CEILINGS WILL EVEN DROP TO IFR AT KBCB BEFORE 12Z. MODELS BRING THE SHORT WAVE ENTERING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z/11AM AND 21Z/5PM. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIMITED THREAT OF ANY THUNDER. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR AND NOT LOWER AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z/8AM TUESDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ADDING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINFALL IN UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE 06Z TAFS. LOOKS WET TUESDAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ACT TO KEEP MVFR CIGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NW. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS SLOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE DAY FOR NOW.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW BROUGHT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BOTH BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG WEST VA. SEE THE WBCRERRNK PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...AMS/JH CLIMATE...JH

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