Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 171911 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 311 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY TROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY... UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH RESIDES OVER ONTARIO CANADA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETTING PROPELLED THROUGH THE FLOW. WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. SECOND EQUALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK PASSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT MAY BEGIN TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ALONG ITS LENGTH LATER TONIGHT AS RIBBON OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE M-U50S GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO ERN OH/KY. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT...CLOUDS OVERSPREADING OUR MTN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ENTERTAIN CHC POPS MAINLY FOR THE WV MTNS LATE TONIGHT...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE HIGHLANDS OF VA AND FAR WRN VA SATURDAY. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FOR SATURDAY...WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST...GUSTY AT TIMES. BEHIND THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE...TEMPERATURES AT 85H TAKE ABOUT A 5-7 DEG C DROP. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED...AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS SHOULD BALANCE THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY TESTING 70 IN THE PIEDMONT. SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD SUNSET. LOOK FOR A MORE DEFINED AREA OF PRECIP TO FOLLOW THIS FEATURE AND A MORE PRONOUNCE DROP IN TEMPERATURE WITH ITS PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT...85H TEMPS TAKING ANOTHER 5-7 DEG C HIT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY... SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH DECENT UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACCOMPANYING THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL IS PROGGED TO BE 850 MB AIR AS COLD AS -2 TO -4 C. THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AS LOW AS THE MID 30S IN PARTS OF THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THIS REGION. AT MOST...ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY MID-DAY SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN AND DRIER AIR ALOFT ENTERS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALL WHILE 850 MB WINDS START INCREASING AGAIN FROM SOUTHWEST. IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND IN THE EAST WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FORM SOME PATCHY FROST...WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING COVERAGE A LITTLE GREATER THAN PATCHY. THE WARMEST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND POINTS EASTWARD. MONDAY NIGHT...OUR NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENTER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS...AND MILDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A DANVILLE TO BUCKINGHAM VA LINE MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. LOW TO MID 40S FOR LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE EAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY... MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING OUT NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...DEEPENING IT...AND CUTTING IT OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THANKS TO A PROLONGED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FETCH. ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ON TUESDAY WHEN THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION...AND THEN BEST CHANCES SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION...CLOSEST TO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A SOME MODERATION ON FRIDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN ANTICIPATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE MTNS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE ONLY HAZARD TO AVIATION THIS EVENING MAY BE THE TURBULENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT. WINDS SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST SATURDAY WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...PROVIDING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS TO AVIATION FROM THE PIEDMONT AND POINTS EAST. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WINDS DIMINISHING ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES. AFTER A VFR DAY MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW CROSSES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH MORE SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RETURN OF MVFR CIGS A GOOD PROBABILITY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...PM

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