Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KRNK 251953
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016
High pressure will be the dominant weather feature through the
upcoming weekend...becoming centered directly overhead by
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...
A few showers and storms across the foothills of VA/NC shown by the
high-res models to shift eastward through late afternoon. As such
will keep very low chance pops mainly from just east of the Blue
Ridge through early evening, then should see dry wx. As we head
overnight skies should be mostly clear. With dewpoints in the upper
60s to lower 70s and a light wind, should see some fog mainly in
river valleys, and where it rained this afternoon. Low temps will be
in the mid to upper 60s west to lower 70s east.
Friday will be drier as upper center of high moves across Virginia.
Slight chance of storms will be mainly over the southern Blue Ridge.
A hotter day but heat indices in the Piedmont should stay just below
the century mark. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s east of the
Blue Ridge including Roanoke and Lexington, VA, with the mountains
reaching the mid to upper 80s.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...
Strong subtropical ridge of high pressure (5H heights advertised
near 597 dm) will be centered over the region this weekend. This
feature will ensure that summertime heat will prevail with daytime
temperatures of 4 to 7 degrees above normal and overnight lows
averaging a full 10 degrees above normal. There will be an
isolated threat for diurnally driven showers/storms, but this
activity is expected to be mainly confined to the mountains west
of the Blue Ridge.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 450 AM EDT Thursday...
The upper-level ridge will begin to weaken as we progress into the
mid part of next week but will also be the key to steering a
tropical system that is forecast by most models to track into
south Florida early in the week. Although the track is now
relatively similar among the models, there are vast differences in
the intensity. While the GFS shows a weak tropical low drifting
slowly north to northeast across FL into southeast GA and
eventually the Carolinas through the week, the ECMWF develops a
tropical storm/hurricane, which it similarly moves northeast,
albeit much quicker than the weaker GFS system. Meanwhile, as the
upper high weakens and shifts south of our area, another weak
front is progged to drift into the region by midweek. Much of the
time, our region will likely remained sandwiched in between the
frontal precipitation to our north/west and the tropical system to
our south. However during the later part of the week, the tropical
system could begin to impact at least the southeastern parts of
our CWA and with the pattern in place, there is always at least
some concern of a predecessor rain event. At any rate, considerably
uncertainty remains and such considerations still remain just
beyond this forecast period. Therefore, will continue the trend
established in the short term period of slight chance to low
chance diurnally driven pops and well above normal temperatures
moderating only slightly closer to normal by the end of the period
as cloud cover and moisture increase, the upper high weakens, and
850mb temps drop back a few degrees.
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...
Aviation concerns this afternoon will be dealing with isolated to
widely scattered convection with TCU and CB. Coverage not enough
to warrant mention in the terminals. Overall VFR scattered to
broken CU with some high end MVFR at BLF.
VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF valid period
as high pressure both surface and aloft moves slowly east across
the region. Late tonight with plenty of low level humidity patchy
dense fog and localized IFR- LIFR vsbys/cigs may occur especially
LWB and perhaps BCB. After fog burns off Friday morning in the
12-14z time frame expect VFR with scattered cumulus.
Extended aviation discussion...
Storms will again be isolated and mainly confined to the mountains
on Friday afternoon as upper ridging strengthens.
A weak front will drift into the area Sunday. Isolated to
scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms still possible this
weekend. Coverage will be limited in area and duration.
Monday high pressure bubbles in but still a very humid airmass to
keep isolated mountain storms around in the afternoon, but mainly
VFR. Another front situated north of us Tuesday could enhance
convective threat, mainly over the mountains and north of ROA/LYH.