Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 251953 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 353 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be the dominant weather feature through the upcoming weekend...becoming centered directly overhead by Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday... A few showers and storms across the foothills of VA/NC shown by the high-res models to shift eastward through late afternoon. As such will keep very low chance pops mainly from just east of the Blue Ridge through early evening, then should see dry wx. As we head overnight skies should be mostly clear. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s and a light wind, should see some fog mainly in river valleys, and where it rained this afternoon. Low temps will be in the mid to upper 60s west to lower 70s east. Friday will be drier as upper center of high moves across Virginia. Slight chance of storms will be mainly over the southern Blue Ridge. A hotter day but heat indices in the Piedmont should stay just below the century mark. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s east of the Blue Ridge including Roanoke and Lexington, VA, with the mountains reaching the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 PM EDT Thursday... Strong subtropical ridge of high pressure (5H heights advertised near 597 dm) will be centered over the region this weekend. This feature will ensure that summertime heat will prevail with daytime temperatures of 4 to 7 degrees above normal and overnight lows averaging a full 10 degrees above normal. There will be an isolated threat for diurnally driven showers/storms, but this activity is expected to be mainly confined to the mountains west of the Blue Ridge. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 450 AM EDT Thursday... The upper-level ridge will begin to weaken as we progress into the mid part of next week but will also be the key to steering a tropical system that is forecast by most models to track into south Florida early in the week. Although the track is now relatively similar among the models, there are vast differences in the intensity. While the GFS shows a weak tropical low drifting slowly north to northeast across FL into southeast GA and eventually the Carolinas through the week, the ECMWF develops a tropical storm/hurricane, which it similarly moves northeast, albeit much quicker than the weaker GFS system. Meanwhile, as the upper high weakens and shifts south of our area, another weak front is progged to drift into the region by midweek. Much of the time, our region will likely remained sandwiched in between the frontal precipitation to our north/west and the tropical system to our south. However during the later part of the week, the tropical system could begin to impact at least the southeastern parts of our CWA and with the pattern in place, there is always at least some concern of a predecessor rain event. At any rate, considerably uncertainty remains and such considerations still remain just beyond this forecast period. Therefore, will continue the trend established in the short term period of slight chance to low chance diurnally driven pops and well above normal temperatures moderating only slightly closer to normal by the end of the period as cloud cover and moisture increase, the upper high weakens, and 850mb temps drop back a few degrees. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Thursday... Aviation concerns this afternoon will be dealing with isolated to widely scattered convection with TCU and CB. Coverage not enough to warrant mention in the terminals. Overall VFR scattered to broken CU with some high end MVFR at BLF. VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF valid period as high pressure both surface and aloft moves slowly east across the region. Late tonight with plenty of low level humidity patchy dense fog and localized IFR- LIFR vsbys/cigs may occur especially LWB and perhaps BCB. After fog burns off Friday morning in the 12-14z time frame expect VFR with scattered cumulus. Extended aviation discussion... Storms will again be isolated and mainly confined to the mountains on Friday afternoon as upper ridging strengthens. A weak front will drift into the area Sunday. Isolated to scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms still possible this weekend. Coverage will be limited in area and duration. Monday high pressure bubbles in but still a very humid airmass to keep isolated mountain storms around in the afternoon, but mainly VFR. Another front situated north of us Tuesday could enhance convective threat, mainly over the mountains and north of ROA/LYH. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...RAB AVIATION...KK/RAB/WP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.