Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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328 FXUS61 KRNK 220611 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 211 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Tight pressure gradient situated between low pressure just southeast of Long Island, and high pressure over the midwest will keep gusty winds around through Saturday. This high will move southeast Saturday and Sunday. A weak cold front will cross through the Mid Atlantic region on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1125 PM EDT Wednesday... Majority of the area getting winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph. Exceptions are a few gusts over 30 mph in the higher elevations, mainly above 3000 ft. As such will leave wind advisory mainly due to the fact that a couple more shortwaves will pass across late tonight and could enhance the winds once they exit. There will be a continuation of scattered showers across the mountains of WV into portions of Southwest Virginia and Northwest North Carolina. As the wave over northern KY passes late, the showers will weaken and end, but as colder air continues to advect in some snowflakes will occur in western Greenbrier and the NC mountains above 4000 ft. Already had a report earlier this evening of snowflakes on Beech Mtn NC. No other major changes to the late evening update. Previous valid discussion... Western upslope areas will be gradually clearing out Saturday morning, which will limit heating. Again, MAV numbers looked reasonable. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... The low amplitude upper pattern is not very progressive as the closed low over New England slides up into eastern Canada and keeps a broad trof over the northeast as a ridge develops over the Rockies. Aside from some lingering clouds west of the Blue Ridge Saturday night, this pattern will keep fair weather with breezy conditions in the tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the southeast and low pressure under the closed low through Sunday. A surge of short wave energy will spill over the ridge and push a weak low from the Great Lakes region late Sunday to off the mid Atlantic coast by Monday morning. This will initiate another round of strong gusty winds Sunday night and send a plume of low level moisture into the region from the northwest. This will result in a good amount of clouds west of the Blue Ridge and maybe some upslope rain showers for the western slopes late Sunday night into Monday. With surface high pressure over the southeast giving us west to southwest winds, warmer temperatures will start making their way into the region and highs on Sunday will be seasonably in the 60s, a bit cooler on Monday west of the Blue Ridge as cooler air starts filtering in. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... High pressure will move in from the upper midwest and bring fair weather with slightly below normal temperatures to the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. The high will then take up a wedge position east of the Appalachians as a vigorous short wave amplifies and drops out of the upper midwest. This looks to bring a chance of precipitation back to our forecast for Thursday with some additional upslope precipitation west of the Blue Ridge lingering into Friday. Temperatures will generally be near seasonal norms through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 750 PM EDT Friday... MVFR cigs will persist in the mountains through Saturday morning before improving. East of the mountains, cloud bases mainly VFR. Radar continues to indicate some very light precipitation along the western slopes of the WV/VA highlands. Appears to be drizzle at the surface with some reports of IFR vsbys. This activity is expected to diminish after daybreak. Pressure gradient will continue to result in gusty northwest winds through Saturday with surface gusts of 20-30 kts. Wind are expected to subside Saturday night. Some lingering moisture will persist across the WV mountains into Saturday night, cloud bases 3-5kft. East of the Blue Ridge skies will become clear. Extended aviation discussion... Sunday through Monday...Widespread VFR. No flight restrictions. High pressure building in over the Tennessee Valley then southeast United States will result in lighter wind speeds. Tuesday and Wednesday...Potential for river valley fog in the mountain valleys with local vsby restrictions between 08-14Z each morning, otherwise widespread VFR.
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VA...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for VAZ009-012>020-022>024. NC...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ001-002-018. WV...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/WP SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...PM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.