Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 221854 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 254 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cover the region into the weekend. A cold front will approach the Mid Atlantic region the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 930 AM EDT Friday... Any lingering fog/low clouds will dissipate shorty, leaving us with a good deal of mid/high clouds streaming over the region from the northeast. Expect short wave energy pushing south through the region to combine with orographic effects and diurnal instability to generate some scattered afternoon showers/thunder from the Grayson Highlands south through the NC mountains. Otherwise, a dry forecast. Highs today will be quite similar to readings yesterday with middle 80s east of the Blue Ridge and upper 70s/lower 80s to the west. Previous discussion... 500MB ridge will be centered over Michigan today with the surface high over Pennsylvania. Weak upper trof extends from eastern North Carolina to the Florida panhandle. Models also indicating some subtle low level convergence over North Carolina this afternoon. Will have highest probability of precipitation over the northwest North Carolina mountains, where the instability and CAPES are most supportive of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Drier air coming in tonight from the northeast. This should limit areal extent of fog. MET/MAV guidance has been running cool for maximum temperatures the past few days. Will be making only slight adjustments to follow bias corrected guidance and persistence for both highs and lows. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 250 PM EDT Friday... A Rather quiet weather pattern through this period, with high pressure firmly in place near the mason dixon line, and continuing to build South along the central appalachians. Hurricane Maria is expected to drift North off of the southeast US coast, but likely remain far enough out to sea to limit impacts in our area through Monday. This setup would allow mostly sunny and dry conditions to remain in place. High Temperatures should remain steadily 5 to 10 degrees above normal during the period, topping out in the mid to upper 80s east of the Blue Ridge, with upper 70s and low 80s prevalent across the higher elevations. Low temperatures would fall into the 50s and 60s, with patchy fog possible each morning, especially in the mountain valleys.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 250 PM EDT Friday... High pressure will begin to progress north and east into the New England states by Tuesday, as Maria begins to slow and wobble off of the Mid Atlantic Seaboard. This will allow surface winds to shift to out of the East/Northeast, allowing low level atlantic moisture to build across the area Wednesday and Thursday. With subsidence still in place, don`t expect much in the way of shower activity, but cloud cover as a whole should increase, especially for those East of the Blue Ridge. A Persistence forecast trend in temperatures will continue through this time period. A cold front approaches from the north and west on Thursday, bringing the possibility of isolated to scattered showers across the area. Timing of the front, at least in the eyes of the GFS, doesn`t look favorable for significant shower coverage or intensity, but it should be enough to push the remnants of Maria far enough off shore to break us free from the easterly flow. Drier and more seasonable conditions should follow the front, and continue into the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 250 PM EDT Friday... No change in the general synoptic pattern as a large ridge of high pressure dominates the eastern US while tropical systems over the Atlantic remain too far offshore to impact our weather. Any convective precipitation will be sliding further to the south and is not expected to impact any TAF sites but will include VCSH at KBCB at issuance for the isolated showers moving through the NRV. The result will be VFR flight conditions through the period with some nocturnal fog/stratus development primarily expected to affect locations west of the Blue Ridge. There are some indications that lower dew points will start working in from the north and may limit fog development at KLWB, but will defer to climatology and indicate a tempo for IFR toward daybreak. Extended Aviation Discussion... Overall persistence forecast to prevail this weekend into early next week as strong high pressure aloft builds in from the northwest keeping tropical moisture offshore. This should also maintain good flying conditions along with mostly dry weather, outside of any late night/early morning fog from Saturday through Tuesday.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...MBS/AMS

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