Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 210546 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 146 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm and humid conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms early this morning. A strong cold front will approach from the west late tonight before crossing the area Sunday. Somewhat cooler and drier air follows the front for much of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1100 PM EDT Saturday... A upper trough over the Midwest will move northeast across the Great Lakes tonight into Sunday. The combination of low level moisture, lingering instability and approaching front will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms through the overnight, and preceding the front on Sunday. The actual front will move across the forecast area Sunday afternoon with bonafide clearing and drying commencing Sunday night. For Sunday, question still exists as to whether we will have any severe weather before the front exits the CWA. Attm SPC has highlighted a marginal risk to our northeast with wind being the primary threat. However, can not rule out a strong thunderstorm or two towards Southside, especially if clouds thin prior to the arrival of the front, allowing for an uptick of the CAPE. High temperatures on Sunday will range from around 70 degrees to the upper 80s in the Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... A much desired change of air mass expected through much of this period as the cold front of Sunday moves off the eastern seaboard and the southern end of the front is pushed into the southeast states...rather than becoming hung up near the VA/NC border as has been the case most of this summer. This pattern will finally shut off the daily convection and also bring a period of much welcomed cooler/drier conditions. A large area of dry high pressure will spread across the region from the Midwest and take from Mon until Wed afternoon to move east of the region allowing for any return flow of moisture. While the air mass is drier with dewpoints dropping into the 50s, even upper 40s mountains for the first half of next week, 850mb temps will only fall to around +15C, which will still allow for many areas to get well into the 80s with the August sun. The main difference to note during the first half of the week is the cooler/less humid nights than we have seen for quite some time. Even more important will be the lack of convection for several days. With PWATS falling below 1.0 inch and dewpoints in the 50s and high pressure aloft building over the region, cannot foresee much of any chance of convection during this time frame, so have left pops below 15%, in fact at 0% for much of the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Saturday... High pressure aloft will be building over the region during this period allowing the heat and humidity to return in earnest. Still feel Wednesday should be dry with the GFS most agressive in trying to bring moisture/convection back into the mountains during the afternoon. Have advertised a token 15% pops for the northwest NC mountains in line with GSP, but cannot see much more than that at this point. By Thursday, the surface high continues to drift off shore allowing better return of Gulf moisture into the region. A broad trough in the central U.S. will help drive a weak cold front toward the region late Thursday with a better chance of convection as a result west of the Blue Ridge. The front will continue to move southeast Friday toward the NC Piedmont, then wash out as high pressure aloft once again intensifies across the region. Dynamics are weak both days, but scattered convection can be expected, especially across the mountains, mainly west of the Blue Ridge Thursday, then more to the east of the Blue Ridge across the Piedmont on Friday. Temperatures and humidity levels will be on the increase again during this period as PWATS surge back toward the 2.0 inch mark and 850mb temps creep back toward +20C. The pattern established during the extended period opens the door to potential tropical activity that may be looming the future. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1230 AM EDT Sunday... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue today until a bonafide frontal passage later today. Potential for sub- VFR will also persist until the front clears the forecast area. Once the front clears the area expect gusty northwest winds and a drying trend. Widespread VFR will return for Sunday Night and Monday. Extended aviation discussion... Confidence is high for much drier weather across the region for Monday through Wednesday as High pressure builds overhead, promoting VFR. By Thursday, the center of the high will be far enough east for western portions of the area to see a return of isolated to scattered MVFR showers and a few thunderstorms.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK NEAR TERM...KK/PM SHORT TERM...RAB LONG TERM...RAB AVIATION...PC/PM

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