Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 252303 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 703 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEW YORK TO KANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THEN WILL TRAIL FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 700 PM EDT MONDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT TO ALLOW A MOISTER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH...BUT A WAVE ALONG THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE STALLING IT OVER THE PIEDMONT BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS SITUATION SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S...AND HIGHS FOR TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROF IN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH...KEPT POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS SFC FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE 12Z NAM AND 09Z SREF MODELS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING THE WEDGE COMPARED TO THE GFS. SREF 2M TEMP PLUMES SHOW LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. LEANED TOWARD THE MAJORITY OF MODELS AND KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THE EAST...WHICH MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH...AND KEPT CHANCES FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION MAY BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC WAVE...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW. STILL NO FLOODING CONCERNS ANTICIPATED WITH RAINFALL RATES NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. SHOWERS...ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE THE WEDGE...WILL AGAIN BE FOUND WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS MODELS GENERATE GOOD LIFT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALONG WITH PWATS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE NAM MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH ITS MUCH FASTER SOLUTION. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAIN WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING IF/WHEN THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE ERODES. UNDERCUT FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN VA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY... WEAK UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. AT THE SFC...12Z ECMWF KEEPS WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE TEMPS WERE BROUGHT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES DURING THIS TIME...THESE FORECAST VALUES STILL MAY BE TOO WARM. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT TYPICAL FOR THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT INDIVIDUAL GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD WHERE THE POPS ARE HIGHEST. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE TO NEAR NORMAL LATER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 120 PM EDT MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MODELS WERE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING LOWERING CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY WHILE KEEPING A SOUTHWEST WIND. DESPITE LOWERING CEILINGS...LEVELS WILL REMAIN VFR. WITH A BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT COULD STALL OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST TO PUSH THE WEAKER FRONT OFFSHORE. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...PW/RCS SHORT TERM...PH LONG TERM...PH AVIATION...RCS

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