Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 101934 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 334 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND +8 TO +12 SO TEMPERATURES IN THE RIDGES WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 50 IN THE PIEDMONT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE SPEED AND ARRIVAL TIME OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES AS FAR SOUTH AS SRN VA FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN LIFT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF IT AS WEAK VORT MOVES FROM ERN TN THROUGH NRN NC. MODELS ARE OVERALL IN AGREEMENT TO KEEPING BEST THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NRN CWA. ATTM...WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SE WV TO PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO LITTLE TO NO THREAT SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NW NC. FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH SW FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD STAY WARM SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. 8H TEMPS SUNDAY ACTUALLY CLIMB TO +10 TO +14C COOLEST OVER THE PIEDMONT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 ACROSS WESTERN VALLEYS GIVEN STRONG WAA...AND ALSO IN THE PIEDMONT...WHILE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE STAY IN THE 70S. COULD POTENTIALLY APPROACH/ATTAIN RECORD HIGHS IN BLF/LWB/BCB SUNDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 114 PM EDT THURSDAY... SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY TUESDAY. SYSTEM HAS TWO DISTINCT STREAMS TO WORK WITH...AND QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM OCCURS. 00Z ECMWF KEEP THE STREAMS UNPHASED BUT SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM TO BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCE NE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. A STRONGER SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST/GA/FL TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER SYSTEM CLOSING OFF HERE AS WELL WHICH COULD HANG THE FRONT UP SOME. KEPT POPS IN THE EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WX TAKING PLACE WED-THU. APPEARS COLDER AIR WILL BE LAGGING ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS OR PHASES TO GET SOME WET SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THERE WILL BE A STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW TURNING NE. WEDGE SETS UP BUT CLOUD COVER LOOKS MINIMAL SO ONLY A MODEST EFFECT ON TEMPS. AT THIS TIME...KEEPING IT DRY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT POTENTIAL FOR RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE PIEDMONT EXISTS AS FLOW TURNS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. TEMPS OVERALL THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON VCNTY OF THE MTNS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES...CEILINGS AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. .EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. ATTM IT APPEARS CLOUD BASES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE VFR. THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEXT THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...AMS/KK

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