Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 281757 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1257 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY REACHING THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS....FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COLDER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1250 PM EST FRIDAY... ALL THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES HAVE ENDED BUT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST IN THE WEST UNDER DECREASING NW FLOW. TEMPS ON FORECAST TRACK FOR HIGHS UPPER 20S NW TO LOW 40S SE. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... AS OF 215 AM EST FRIDAY... SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING REACHING COASTAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW BACK TO THE REGION WITH STEADY 85H WARMING UNDER A WEAK WAVE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. HOWEVER APPEARS LITTLE MIXING OF WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WILL BE REALIZED EXCEPT UP ON THE RIDGES SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE. INFILTRATION OF PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS UNDER THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...LIKELY TO OCCUR AS MOISTURE ALOFT SPILLS EAST/SE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT SO OVERALL CLEAR SW...TO MAINLY PC ELSW WITH MORE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTH. THIS MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS UP SOME BUT STILL APPEARS LOWS MOSTLY 20S EXCEPT PERHAPS STEADY OR RISING INTO THE 30S RIDGETOPS LATE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 210 AM EST FRIDAY... FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONE AREA WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WEST OF COVINGTON. THIS REGION WILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY SKIRT THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHEAST TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST WILL BE THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONCURRENT TO THE FRONT. THE SECOND REASON WILL BE A BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO A SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL PROMPT UPSLOPE STRATOFORM PATCHES OR AREAS OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY... APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1250 PM EST FRIDAY... MOUNTAIN TAF SITES NEAR MVFR CIGS AS NW FLOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ALL SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AND VSBYS ARE VFR. SHOULD SEE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT A COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTH LIKELY TO SPILL SOME MID CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 8K FT INTO THE REGION BY LATER AFTERNOON...WITH MORE BKN CIGS POSSIBLE ESPCLY ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. OTRW EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BACK MORE SW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO AREAS FROM KBCB WESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON- TUE WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY... VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS NEAR TERM...JH/PC SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...JH/PC EQUIPMENT...AMS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.