Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 200016
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
816 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...

1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
CENTER WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY. UNTIL THE
EASTERLY WIND WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BANKED AGAINST THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE.  PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSE TO ADJMAVBC WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTH.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SATURDAY. WIND FLOW SHOULD TURN JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOW
CLOUDINESS TO DEPART RESULTING IN MORE CLEARING SATURDAY AND MORE
SUN. MORE SUN MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY REFLECT ADJMAV MOS WITH VALUES FROM LOWER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SLIVER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HEADS NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF STREAM. BY SUNDAY
MORNING...A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHICH WOULD ERODE THE COOL WEDGE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS
WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH IN EASTERN
CANADA...SO QPF DOES NOT APPEAR IMPRESSIVE FOR SUNDAY EVENING.
CAPE APPROACHES 500-1000 J/KG ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO THE MID
80S...SO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH AN EXPECTED WEST WIND THAT WILL AID IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GENERATE ANYTHING OVER THE PIEDMONT.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OVER THE CWA. WITH
DECENT NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER DURING THE
DAY...AS A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH HEADS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
JUST IN TIME FOR THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX. IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL
LIKE THE FIRST DAY OF FALL BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH MOS GUIDANCE
DEPICTING LOW TEMPERATURES VARYING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA
AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST REGION ON
TUESDAY...STARTING THE DAY CENTERED OVER THE MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
ALSO RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

WE CAN EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE
EVENING...WHERE THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL AS IT RUNS INTO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFFSHORE...DRAWING AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF MARINE AIR INTO
OUR REGION. AS SUCH...EXPECT INCREASED STRATUS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE. MARINE AIR WILL ALSO
SUPPORT SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...

LIGHT EASTERLY WIND WILL KEEP CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
CONDITIONS VCNTY OF THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES. CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED
TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE SATURDAY AS THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WEAKENS.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...DISSIPATING SUNDAY
MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA. PASSAGE
OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK PROMOTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM


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