Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 121051
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
651 AM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today and Wednesday high pressure over the southeast United States
will keep the weather dry over our region. Thursday and Friday a ow
pressure system will track from the Rockies to the Ohio Valley,
bring showers and thunderstorms to the eastern United States on
Friday and Friday night. More precipitation is possible on
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key message:

 - Dry weather and lighter wind today

Surface high pressure was centered over the Gulf coast region this
morning. This high will gradually move east today and tonight.
Surface and low level winds will be mainly from the northwest then
west.  Expecting good mixing which will lead to surface dew points
mainly in the 20s. Along with the dry air, almost full sunshine
today will support warmer temperatures than on Monday. Will have
highs closer to warmest guidance. Mid and high clouds arrive
tonight. Will stay close to NBM guidance for the lows, with the
exception of typically colder river valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Temperatures trending warmer, to above normal values.
2. Dry weather for mid week, next chance for rain arrives Friday.

Temperatures will continue on a warming trend through Thursday, as
500mb heights increase over the area during this forecast period.
Surface high pressure will remain situated over much of the
southeastern US and Mid Atlantic, but slowly shifts eastward and
offshore by midweek. This high will keep the weather dry and quiet
for the area for Wednesday and Thursday, but an upper wave crossing
the region could bring an increase in mid and high clouds through
Wednesday, and possibly scattered light showers to the western
mountains Wednesday night. As the high continues to shift farther
east Thursday, southwesterly flow will bring warmer and moister air
into the area. Probabilities for high temperatures exceeding 75
degrees on Thursday are over 80% and around 65% on Friday in
the Virginia Southside and Roanoke Valley.

A surface frontal system will develop in the central US during this
forecast period, tracking eastward and reaching the central
Appalachians by Friday. Rain showers from the associated cold front
may reach the western counties in the forecast area as early as
Friday morning, though the greater chances look to be Friday evening
and night. Higher rainfall amounts will likely be west of the Blue
Ridge, as downsloping from the westerly winds will limit the
coverage of rain showers in the Piedmont. Probabilities of 24 hour
rainfall amounts exceeding a half an inch are 30 to 40% over
southeast West Virginia, into far southwest Virginia and northwest
North Carolina. Cannot rule out a few thunderstorms developing with
this front, with increasing dewpoints and instability. However,
timing of the frontal passage, late Friday night into Saturday
morning, and progressiveness of the front will help to limit
thunderstorm chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Rain chances decrease after Saturday morning, return for Sunday.
2. Temperatures trend cooler for the period, but still above normal
through the weekend.

The cold front from Friday will be to the southeast of the area by
Saturday morning, thus rain showers will be diminishing across the
area for the start of this forecast period. Some showers may linger
in the far western mountains of southeast West Virginia, but even
those will taper off by later Saturday as drier air pushes in behind
the front. This cold front will stall across the southeastern US,
while another area of low pressure develops and tracks northeastward
along it. Also during this forecast period, an upper trough will
move across southern Canada and deepen as it approaches the Great
Lakes region. The trailing cold front from the surface low
associated with this upper trough will approach the central
Appalachians by Sunday, and will bring another round of rain showers
to the area. However, the greater moisture will be more over the
southeastern US, along the other frontal boundary, so confidence is
low in coverage of showers on Sunday into Monday.

Colder air follows the passage of the northern stream system, so
could see some snow showers mixing into the lingering showers over
the western slopes Sunday night into Monday. This will also bring
temperatures back towards seasonal normals by the start of the next
week, which will feel much colder compared to the unseasonable
warmth of the end of this week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR weather through the TAF forecast period.

Have added LLWS to the local TAF for this morning due to A 30
to 40 knot jet just above the shallow surface based inversion.


The low level jet weakens enough by 16Z/noon to eliminate the
potential for any additional shear today.

As mixing begins this morning, some higher gusts are expected,
mainly in the 15 to 20 knot range. The surface wind will
decouple again tonight.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure with dry VFR conditions expected through
Thursday.

A front will approach Friday and bring MVFR or lower conditions
along with showers and thunderstorms. MVFR clouds showers in
the mountains may linger into Saturday morning. Otherwise
Saturday will be VFR east of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...AMS/VFJ


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