Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 231806
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
206 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 953 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE REGION BUT SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE CASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALSO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BLUE RIDGE TO FORM SOME HIGH
BASED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED
WARMING ALOFT SUPPORT THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPS FORECAST OF GENERALLY
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WEST OF THE RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 70S EAST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

THIS MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DUE TO
THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE
BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY
RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGING SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE
ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY
PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90.

THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE
LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME HIGH BASED CU
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE. THE CU MAY DEVELOP INTO A VFR BKN CIG FROM TIME TO TIME AT
KBCB/KROA/KLWB BUT WILL ONLY CARRY SCT CLOUDS IN THE TAF AND AVOID
USING A TEMPO GROUP SINCE THERE IS NO CHANGE IN FLIGHT CAT. IT
LOOKS LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT AND
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT DEVELOPMENT WAS ISOLATED TO
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY LAST NIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT. WILL USE A TEMPO FOR MVFR VIS AT KLWB WHERE
FOG DEVELOPMENT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AND CARRY NO OBVIS
ELSEWHERE. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER GOOD DAY TO FLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE
REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY
CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS/PC
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS/PC



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