Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 151113
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
613 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
With the exception of a weak cold front bringing a chance of
showers Wednesday night, fair weather will prevail across the
Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through the end of
the workweek. A strong cold front will then bring more showers
and windy conditions to the region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EST Wednesday...

Clouds of the low variety continue to lay across the Blue Ridge and
adjacent areas this morning, roughly from Fincastle/Buchanan VA
south into NC. Hi-res models such as Hi-RES ARW have a decent handle
on this but even the more aggressive NAMDNG is downplaying this sky
cover.

Still will start to see erosion later this morning as wedge weakens,
but could see NC mountains into NRV hang onto the shallow moisture
into midday.

The surface high fades by evening as upstream front moves toward the
central Appalachians, with main forcing further north over the Great
Lakes. This front should bring a band of showers to the mountains
this evening, then fade east of the Blue Ridge as front stretches
out and loses its deep moisture to the northeast.

Thursday, some lingering upslope morning showers in WV then sunny
with high pressure over the midwest moves toward our area with drier
air. Enough pressure gradient between this high and the low over New
England will make for a breezier day, with some gusts over 30 mph
possible in the higher ridges of the Blue Ridge.

Temperatures today stay on the cool side, and if clouds over the
southern Blue Ridge are slower to erode, temps may not get out of
the lower to mid 40s, though staying closer to MAV/MET blend with
upper 40s to mid 50s areawide.

Tonight, mainly clear with increasing clouds west late will render
lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Thursday will be warmer in the east with mainly dry wx expected and
flow becoming more downslope while the mountains stay cool. Highs
will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s west, to lower to mid 60s
east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Wednesday

High should be overhead Friday allowing for another mainly sunny and
cool day including uniform highs mostly in the low/mid 50s,
after morning lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Rather flat upper flow across the region to end the week will
quickly transition to strong upper troffiness Saturday into
Saturday night.

Otherwise warm front lifts north Friday night giving way to
increasing warm advection overnight including gusty southwest winds
on the ridges per 30-40+ knot 850 mb jet. Moisture lacking with this
feature with best lift still to the west ahead of the cold front so
keeping things dry Friday night. Surface cold front likely to cross
the region later Saturday with perhaps the surface wind shift along
the leading edge of the associated shower band.  Precip may
switch to western snow showers Sat night pending how fast the
cold advection behind the front catches up but iffy elsewhere
outside of the higher western elevations given slower timing.

Main concern will be with post frontal northwest winds as strong
cold advection follows the front on 40-45 kt 850 mb cross barrier
flow. However model pressure rises show an initial surge in winds as
the front passes, then a more prolonged round of gusty winds
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Wednesday...

Front should be east of us Sunday with breezy/windy conditions
continuing.

Upslope snow showers likely to linger into Sunday evening
before low level moisture fades with high pressure building in
from the southwest making for quiet weather into early next
week.

Will turn abruptly colder behind the front with highs in the
30s/40s west and only around 50 east under gusty winds Sunday.
This before readings slowly rebound Monday into Tuesday to more
seasonal levels as the upper trough lifts out.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 610 AM EST Wednesday...

Ceilings will stay MVFR to at times IFR along the Blue Ridge
east into the foothills and west toward SE WV til 14-15z, and
will see erosion of the wedge during this time, but think low
clouds will be last to erode at BCB as far as taf sites go.

After midday will see VFR conditions area wide.

Front shifts east tonight with increasing clouds and potential
MVFR with showers by 12z at LWB/BLF, but for now will keep it
VCSH.

Extended Discussion...

Possible post-frontal sub-VFR ceilings into Thursday in the
western Appalachians, otherwise VFR conditions. VFR then
anticipated through Thursday evening. A cold front is expected
to cross through the Mid Atlantic region Friday and Saturday
with precipitation and strong winds both ahead of and behind the
front. Gusty winds may continue into Sunday but there is large
spread in the guidance at that time frame.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...JH/WP
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...AMS/WP



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