Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 020153
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
953 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOR THIS EVENING...HAVE TONED DOWN THE EXPANSE OF THE POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY HIT AND MISS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BE GREATEST ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 77 IN VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA. FOR NORTH CAROLINA...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO MAKE PROGRESSION EASTWARD ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE I-64 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 800 PM
AND 1000 PM. HAVE MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE...BUT HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS
AND WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED UPON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS OF 310 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AIRMASS ALOFT IS DRY THIS AFTERNOON PER WV LOOP...BUT EXPECT
MOISTURE IN TN/KY TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SW VA AND NW NC AREA BY EARLY
EVENING. UNTIL THEN JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST UNDER
HAZY/SMOKY SUNSHINE WITH SOME CU.

THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT ON HOLDING THIS MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER KY IN PLACE ENTERING THE MTNS THIS
EVENING...THOUGH BULK OF HEAVIER CONVECTION TRACKS MORE TOWARD THE
SMOKYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS INTO THIS EVENING IN THE
SOUTHWEST WITH LOW CHANCE INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN CWA.
AS WE HEAD OVERNIGHT THE UPPER IMPULSE SHIFTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF
NC WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE NWD SHIFT IN SHOWERS. BY THIS TIME
SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH THUNDER AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE
THREAT IS LESS SO LOWERED POPS.

FOR THURSDAY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT FROM IL/WRN KY INTO SW
VA/NW NC. ALL MODELS SHOWING A MORE CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
CATEGORICAL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO SVR THREAT IS LOW. WITH CLOUDS AND
HIGHER POPS WENT CLOSE TO MAV/MET WITH LOWER TO MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER TO MID 80S EAST.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...THE AREA HAS BEEN GETTING ISOLATED
HEAVY AMOUNTS. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO THE HEAVY RAIN/ISOLATED
FLOODING THREAT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A SURFACE LOW EAST ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL ALSO TRACK ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER KENTUCKY AND OHIO THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
PREFRONTAL SHORTWAVES...AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND LINGERING
INSTABILITIES...CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO
THE WEST FRIDAY AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRACK SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING...DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WITH A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR THICK CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH MID TO UPPER 70S WEST AND 80F-85F
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
GENERATE WAVES ALONG THE FRONT...TRACKING MOST OF THEM ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE VA-NC BORDER. WITH THE BOUNDARY BEING SOUTH OF THE
AREA...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED. ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THE REGION GETS BACK INTO A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY STALLING OVER THE
CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THEN MODERATE
WARMER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. MOST LOCATIONS
ARE REPORTING VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES
ARE SLIGHTLY REDUCED DUE TO HAZY CONDITIONS.

OVERNIGHT...RAPID UPDATE MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS...
POTENTIALLY WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARRIVING IN THE VICINITY
OF KBLF FROM THE WEST AROUND 02/06Z. SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
VIRGINIAS. WITH CLOUD COVER WIDESPREAD...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH END MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN BR/HZ. THE EXCEPTION IS KBLF...WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WESTERLY FLOW CAUSES
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NEARBY TERRAIN.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES PASS OVERHEAD. AT THIS POINT...TIMING OF THE IMPULSES
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE ADDED AT LEAST VCTS FOR TAFS THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL AGAIN SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE DURING THE
PERIOD...THERE REMAINS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME...SO STORMS ARE NEVER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/WP



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