Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 241352 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 952 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ENSURE DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY TRENDING WARMER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 952 AM EDT SUNDAY... VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. PWAT VALUES RUNNING 60 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND BUILDING ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER PRECIPITATION FREE DAY ACROSS OUR AREA. ASIDE FROM A FEW CU DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION. ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY AS MORNING VALUES WERE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...AND WITH A GOOD INCREASE IN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. AS THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO NW NC TOWARD DAWN MONDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT A FEW CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW LOWS TO FALL MAINLY INTO 50S TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ON MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WHILE YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON TUESDAY... GRADUALLY EXPOSING THE MID ATLANTIC TO BETTER CHANCES OF DAYTIME HEATING-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS GULF MOISTURE MAKES ITS RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH PWATS RISING INTO THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE. ON TUESDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...MAKING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HAVE SHIFTED AWAY FROM OUR AREA...ALLOWING DISTURBANCES TO EVEN CLOSER AND FURTHER INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA TO INCLUDE THE PIEDMONT. CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EITHER DAY...BUT OTHERWISE DO NOT SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN TO OUR AREA...WE CAN DEFINITELY EXPECT SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS CAN BE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY... A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. ALOFT...LONG RANGE MODELS TAKE A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A NOSE OF 16+C 850MB TEMPS NOSES INTO OUR AREA. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 745 AM EDT SUNDAY... EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ASIDE FOR FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MOISTURE (HIGHER DEWPOINTS) INTO THE MOUNTAINS FOR MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRENDING WARMER. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THE AFTERNOON SHOWER THREAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. INCREASING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PH/PM SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF/PH AVIATION...PM

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