Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 052351 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 651 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS EAST TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF US BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 645 PM EST THURSDAY... QUICK UPDATE TO LET THE HEADLINES EXPIRE OVER THE WEST WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THE ONGOING PRECIP EXITS THE SOUTH/EAST WILL REMOVE HEADLINES THERE AS WELL. EXPECT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL AS AN SPS ELSEWHERE FOR THE REFREEZING OF WATER/SLUSH OVERNIGHT. MAY ALSO HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS A FEW COUNTIES OVER THE NW PENDING LATER OBS. FEW OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY... HIGH-RES MODELS AND 12Z NAM DID FAIRLY WELL IN AXIS OF PRECIP THOUGH DIFFERENCES OCCURRED WITH THERMAL PROFILE IN THIS COMPLEX EVENT. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. AS WE HEAD TO THE EVENING THIS WILL HEAD EAST OUT OF OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH OF A BEDFORD TO APPOMATTOX/FARMVILLE LINE...WHERE ADDITIONAL 1- 4" COULD OCCUR...HIGHER TOWARD BUCKINGHAM. THE HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR BANDING SETTING UP IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY SOUTH TO FRANKLIN COUNTY VA...AND WILL FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION...BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHERE AND IF IT SETS UP. MAY GET ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OUT IT. WILL LET THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES RUN THEIR COURSE...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE NIGHT...WILL WAIT UNTIL THESE HEADLINES GET CLOSE TO EXPIRING THEN WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE ISSUING A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN OUR NC COUNTIES PER AGREEMENT WITH STATE OFFICIALS. IN ADDITION...LOOK FOR ENOUGH WIND AND VERY COLD AIR TO BRING WIND CHILLS TO SUB ZERO IN THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF BATH...WEST TO GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO MORNING OVER SE WV. SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DISCREPANCIES EXIST FRIDAY IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER WITH NE FLOW. GFS SHOWING LOW LVL MOISTURE POOLING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHILE THE NAM/CMC AND ECMWF WERE DRIER. WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS FRIDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AREA WIDE...AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE...EXPECT MOST SNOW COVER TO MELT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR MOST OF OUR REGION...A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL BE OFFERED DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CLIP THIS REGION OF AND BRING SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS CONUS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL FAIRLY SIMILAR ON HAVING A DISTURBANCE EXIT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN JET AND TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN HALF OR OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN DURING THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN MAY REACH ROUTE 460. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST WILL ONLY MENTION LOW END CHANCE POPS AS ITS HIGHEST PROBABILITY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY... A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS CONUS. THE TWO STREAMS ARE PROGGED TO MERGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. FOR OUR REGION...THIS WILL ALLOW POTENTIALLY FOR INTERACTION FROM BOTH STREAMS. GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH HOW MUCH OR HOW LITTLE OUR AREA WOULD BE IMPACTED...AND LIKEWISE WITH THE TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKERS. THE LATEST ITERATIONS DO SHOW A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING TIMING...BUT NOT BY TRACK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS OFFER A SOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF TRENDS THE SYSTEM THE FARTHEST NORTH...BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE WHOLE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION...WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION HAS THE SYSTEM CLIP THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THAT OF THE ECMWF...BUT WITH TONED DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALONG WITH EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT FAVOR A LOT OF WINTRY WEATHER. FOR THE MOST PART....RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE WILL BE A SOME POCKETS OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ON EARLY TUESDAY IN THE NORTH AS LOW LEVEL PROFILE WARMS EVEN MORE. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE JET ORIENTATION DOES NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT...AND THERE ARE WEAKER SIGNALS WITHIN THE MODELS THAT ANOTHER...AND WEAKER SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER ONLY A SLIGHT COOLING TREND ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY WILL TREND MILDER. BY THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 615 PM EST THURSDAY... MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH DEPARTING WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MOST AREAS WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE BY 04Z/11PM IN THE WEST...AND 07Z/2AM IN THE EAST. ALSO EXPECT PATCHY MVFR VSBYS WITH THE EXITING LIGHT PRECIPITAION AND POTENTIAL LIGHT FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS OF 1255 PM EST THURSDAY... EXTENDED FORECAST... FRIDAY TO SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER. SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH BRIEF MVFR EXPECTED. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY... ONGOING FLOODING IN THE WEST BUT EXPECT RECEDING...WITH RIVERS GOING UP ALONG THE JAMES AND UPPER ROANOKE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AS COLDER TEMPERATURES SLOW RUNOFF. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ035- 047. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ032-033-043>046-058-059. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ003>006-019-020. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AMS/DS/WP HYDROLOGY...WP

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