Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 100446 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1146 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system rotates into the area tonight with windy conditions and mountain snow showers. Weak high pressure builds in briefly Monday before clipper arrives Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1105 PM EST Saturday... No changes for Winter Weather Advisories. Have adjusted the areal coverage of the snow showers in the mountains based on recent radar trends. Have also slightly expanded where there will be blowing snow. The short wave was over southeast Ohio so best vorticity advection will be overnight. The surface front had just crossed through Roanoke at 10PM. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes pushes a cold front into the region from the west tonight. There will be a good push of cold air behind the front and the low level wind field will steadily amplify overnight. This will create upslope snow showers west of the Blue Ridge along with very gusty winds. A couple of inches of accumulation are possible for the higher elevations, with accumulations of 2 to 5 inches for western Greenbrier county. While no snow accumulations are expected further east, wet and slushy roadways will become slick as falling temperatures refreeze roadways. Expect wind gusts will generally be less than 40MPH so no wind advisory is planned at this time. Upslope snow showers wind down to flurries Sunday morning, but gusty conditions will persist before gradually slackening during the afternoon. Temperatures will be well below normal through Sunday with lows tonight in the teens to lower 20s and highs Sunday in the upper 30s/near 40 east of the Blue Ridge, low/mid 30s west. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EST Saturday... Cold northwest flow to persist this forecast period with potential for mountain snow showers and Flurries. Disturbance moving across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early Tuesday will provide best chance for snow shower coverage with some light snow accumulation possible from the Highlands of WV south across the western NRV and into the High Country of NC. Temperatures will be seasonably cold Monday, the trend 10 to 15 degrees below normal Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 PM EST Saturday... Upper air pattern is forecast to remain amplified with cold upper level trough over eastern North America. Embedded short waves passing through the general flow pattern will result in reinforcing shots of cold air and potential for mountain snow showers and flurries. This will also maintain elevated wind speeds with brisk northwest northwest winds across the ridges. Temperatures will favor the colder side of normal from Wednesday through Friday...trending back closer to normal for the weekend as the upper flow trends more zonal. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1145 PM EST Saturday... High confidence that widespread MVFR ceilings and numerous snow showers will persist overnight in the mountains. Bands of heavier snow combined with blowing snow will create brief periods of IFR conditions at KBLF and possibly KLWB. Expect some MVFR cigs to make it to KBCB but any precipitation will likely be flurries. Wind gusts will start to increase early tonight with gusts at or above 30kt for KROA through mid morning. Gust conditions will spread east of the Piedmont Sunday morning as diurnal heating mixes the boundary layer and allows higher momentum air to reach the surface. Upslope snow showers wind down to flurries Sunday morning, but gusty conditions will persist before gradually slackening during the afternoon. Extended Discussion... VFR conditions then return Sunday evening through Monday. Next chance for sub-VFR conditions is with a clipper system Tuesday, particularly in the western mountains. The sub-VFR could linger into Wednesday as northwest flow continues.
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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The observation at KMTV, Martinsville, Virginia is out of service. Restoration time is unknown.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for NCZ001>006- 018>020. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for WVZ508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS SHORT TERM...PM/WP LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AMS/MBS EQUIPMENT...AMS

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