Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 231911 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 311 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK DRY FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY BY MIDNIGHT. DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...TEMPERATURES MAY LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY...PUSHING CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL LIKELY DETER WIDESPREAD FROST FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...KEEPING THICK CIRRUS OVER THE AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS PER BUFKIT. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AND DYNAMICS FROM THE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLE PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ALONG WESTERN SLOPES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS...THEREFORE MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE VERY SPOTTY AT BEST AND MOST LIKELY WE WILL ONLY SEE VIRGA RETURNS ON RADAR. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY... WEEKEND LOOKS NICE. ASIDE FROM A DRY FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATING RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT....WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPIKE INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPTH LESS THAN 150 MB. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT CLOSE TO NILL POTENTIAL FOR QPF. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC -SHRA FOR THE WV HIGHLANDS...BUT GUT FEELING BASED ON THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE IS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE. AFTER A BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...WINDS DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT. NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 105 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA. THE SHORT WAVE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS ERODE AS THIS AXIS CROSSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG ON TO WESTERN SLOPES (BLF/LWB) INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY BRING HIGH VFR CLOUDS TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY MORNING. CEILINGS MAY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL REMAIN VFR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 KTS MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...LESSER SPEEDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BY MIDNIGHT AND WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA...WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING MVFR CLOUDS TO WESTERN SLOPES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...RCS SHORT TERM...PH LONG TERM...PH AVIATION...RCS

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