Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 040608 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 208 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 150 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING OVER THE NEW RIVER VALLEY NORTH TOWARD THE ALLEGHANYS AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PRESENT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING OUT OF WESTERN KENTUCKY TO FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA DURING THE EARLY MORNING. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THOUGH WITH SOME DRIER AIR IN THE WEST...AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER...MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO GET A LOT OF FOG. FORECAST LOWS FROM THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S EAST LOOKS GOOD. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING IN OUR DIRECTION. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL ALOFT LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEP ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING ON. HIGHS ION WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST TO 60/65 WEST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH CUTOFF LOWS ON THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF THE CONUS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN-BETWEEN. PATTERN TRANSITION WILL TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL CUTOFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY...AND THEN STALL VCNTY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FOR FRIDAY. SPOKES OF VORTICITY WILL BE SPIRALING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...EACH VORT AXIS PROVIDING DYNAMIC LIFT FOR SHOWERS. AS SUCH...EXPECTING PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE PER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND COLD POOL ALOFT. FORECAST 85H TEMPS OF 0 TO +5 DEGREES C SUGGEST WE WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH SFC TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY... CUTOFF LOW VCNTY OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY SATURDAY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST THIS WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY EVOLVES INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY. THE WEEKEND WILL BE OUR TRANSITION BETWEEN THE TWO PATTERNS SO LOOK FOR SATURDAY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL FINALLY WIN OUT BY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FAVORING THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL HANG ONTO SOME LINGERING CLOUDS SATURDAY...BUT THINK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FAVOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS BRING ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY...THIS FEATURE STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OR AMOUNTS ATTM. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 150 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... APPEARS MOST TERMINALS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL SEE A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG. WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC ON VISIBILITIES FROM EARLIER FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING AS MUCH DENSE FOG GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER. FOR TODAY WILL SEE AN UPPER WAVE CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND MOVING EAST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TERMINALS YET. EXPECT MAINLY BROKEN VFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY...BUT WILL SCATTER OUT AT TIMES AS WELL. BY LATER THIS EVENING...BETTER SUPPORT WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS. WILL SEE VCSH AT BLACKSBURG BY LATE EVENING AS WELL AND PERHAPS INTO ROANOKE...THOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FROM ROANOKE EAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVING AT BLACKSBURG BY MIDNIGHT EDT. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR OR WORSE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO PERIODIC SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SOME VFR IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE AVIATION CONDITION SHOULD START IMPROVING BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS/WP SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AMS/JR/WP

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