Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 061545 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1045 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE END THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF US SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1025 AM EST FRIDAY... ALL ADVISORIES AND SPECIAL WX STATEMENTS HAVE EXPIRED. STRONG MARCH SUN WILL ACT TO MELT SNOW TODAY...THOUGH SOME ICY ROADS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 IN VIRGINIA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SATELLITE SHOWING NARROW AXIS OF STRATOCU WORKING WEST THROUGH SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE NC PIEDMONT. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD SCATTER OUT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS STILL ON TRACK FOR MID TO UPPER 20S SE WV/ALLEGHANYS TO AROUND 40 IN THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT OF NC. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TODAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO NOT BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN UNTIL TONIGHT. AT 500 MB...TWO SHORT WAVES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AT 850 MB BEHIND THESE WAVES LATE TONIGHT. RIDGES WILL STAY MIXED TONIGHT BUT VALLEYS WILL STILL DECOUPLE. EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL SPREAD BETWEEN MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS AND A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN VALLEY AND RIDGES TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY... WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO MODERATE AS COLDER AIR RETREATS BACK TO THE NORTH. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CLIP THE INTERSTATE 64 REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA PERSIST INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH TRULY COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL. DESPITE INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS...HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS QUICKLY...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...FALLING MAINLY AS RAIN AS OVERNIGHT AS LOWS HOVER IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD MONDAY AS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...THIS ONE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST. MOISTURE WILL RADIATE NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW MONDAY EVENING...REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AFTER SUNSET...AND OVERSPREADING THE REST OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. AGAIN...WITH A LACK OF COLD AIR FLOW INTO OUR AREA...MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. THE LIKELY EXCEPTION WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING WILL BE THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND A FEW POCKETS ELSEWHERE IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH... EXPECT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR THESE AREAS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 100 PM EST THURSDAY... A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS CONUS. THE TWO STREAMS ARE PROGGED TO MERGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. FOR OUR REGION...THIS WILL ALLOW POTENTIALLY FOR INTERACTION FROM BOTH STREAMS. GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH HOW MUCH OR HOW LITTLE OUR AREA WOULD BE IMPACTED...AND LIKEWISE WITH THE TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKERS. THE LATEST ITERATIONS DO SHOW A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING TIMING...BUT NOT BY TRACK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS OFFER A SOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF TRENDS THE SYSTEM THE FARTHEST NORTH...BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE WHOLE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION...WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION HAS THE SYSTEM CLIP THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THAT OF THE ECMWF...BUT WITH TONED DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALONG WITH EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT FAVOR A LOT OF WINTRY WEATHER. FOR THE MOST PART....RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE WILL BE A SOME POCKETS OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ON EARLY TUESDAY IN THE NORTH AS LOW LEVEL PROFILE WARMS EVEN MORE. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE JET ORIENTATION DOES NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT...AND THERE ARE WEAKER SIGNALS WITHIN THE MODELS THAT ANOTHER...AND WEAKER SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER ONLY A SLIGHT COOLING TREND ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY WILL TREND MILDER. BY THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 625 AM EST FRIDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SCATTERED PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS OVER KDAN AND KBLF WILL DISSIPATE BY 15Z/10AM. KBLF/LLWB/KBCB/KROA/KLYH AND KDAN WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA. WILL SEE CONTINUED VFR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SINKING TO THE SOUTH. A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION TO KDAN. LOW PRESSURE PASSING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE CAROLINAS MAY BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 1030 AM EST FRIDAY... RIVER LEVELS ARE BELOW FLOOD STAGE ACROSS THE AREA...AND RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SOME RISES ARE STILL POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS AFTERNOON. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP NEAR TERM...AMS/WP SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP HYDROLOGY...AMS

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