Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 231909 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 309 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure over the eastern United States will continue to bring mainly warm and dry weather to the region through the first part of next week, while Hurricane Maria stays just off the east coast. A cold front is forecast to cross through the area on Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 PM EDT Saturday... No change in the general synoptic pattern as a large ridge of high pressure dominates the eastern US while tropical systems over the Atlantic remain far enough removed from the region influence our weather this weekend. Combination of diurnal instability, orographic effects, and some weak short wave energy will keep a chance/slight chance for a shower/thunderstorm in the forecast from the southern Blue Ridge into the mountains of NC. Any precipitation will fade quickly by early this evening with dry conditions for the overnight period. Expect another round of patchy fog/stratus development primarily west of the Blue Ridge. Any fog/low clouds will burn off early Sunday, followed by pleasant weather for to close out the weekend. Temperatures will be similar to previous days. Expect lows tonight in the lower 60s east of the Blue Ridge with mid 50s/around 60 to the west and some cooler readings in the valleys. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 80s/near 90 east to low/mid 80s west. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 257 PM EDT Saturday... Dome of high pressure surface and aloft will reside over the mid- Atlantic Sunday night into Monday night keeping the region dry, though some east-northeast flow allows for some cloudiness to move in from time to time. Temperatures staying above normal. Tuesday, Hurricane Maria shift further north allowing a weakness in the ridge and smaller band of high moisture to head west into the piedmont during the afternoon. However, small threat of showers at this point with subsidence in place.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 147 PM EDT Saturday... Just minor changes to the previous forecast this period as we watch Hurricane Maria track northward off the east coast. An upper ridge over the northeast will slow Maria down some, and as it lifts northeast a slight heading to the northwest toward the Outer Banks looks likely before the stronger upstream 5h trough shifts Maria back east and out to the sea into Friday/Saturday. For our weather still looking fairly dry with warmer than normal temperatures Wed-Thu, then some cooling trend Friday-Saturday as front and upper trough shift across. However, the front lacks moisture so shower chances are very low, as we continue a drier than normal trend. Model trends beyond 7 days continues to paint us mainly dry, but temperatures should be a little closer to or below normal.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Saturday... No change in the general synoptic pattern as a large ridge of high pressure dominates the eastern US while tropical systems over the Atlantic remain far enough removed from the region influence our weather this TAF period. Any isolated convective precipitation from the southern Blue Ridge into the mountains of NC will be sliding further to the south with no impact to any TAF sites. Thus, expect VFR flight conditions through the period with some nocturnal fog/stratus development primarily expected to affect locations west of the Blue Ridge. Guidance is reluctant to develop obvis at KBCB and KLWB but thus far our stagnant pattern has proven favorable for fog so will defer to persistence and climatology and include a period of IFR cig/vsby toward daybreak at both locations. Any fog/stratus dissipates early Sunday morning with VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Extended Aviation Discussion... Overall persistence forecast into early next week as strong high pressure aloft builds in from the northwest keeping tropical moisture offshore. This should also maintain good flying conditions along with mostly dry weather, outside of any late night/early morning fog through Wednesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...AMS/MBS

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