Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 290544 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 144 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure is centered near the coast of South Carolina. This system is forecast to move very slowly northward along the coast the next several days causing unsettled weather across the mid atlantic region through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 950 PM EDT Saturday... Forecast models are in general agreement, tropical low pressure near the south carolina coast resulting in increasing cloudiness across the carolinas overnight and a northwest drift of showers from the coast...reaching the VA/NC border by daybreak Sunday. Have slowed down the arrival time of the precipitation in the southern county warning area until between 06Z/2AM and 09Z/5AM based on several of the latest short range models. Differences in the models arise Sunday and Sunday night as to how far west there will be precip and how fast the precip exits, or not exits the area Sunday night. This will also have ramifications to the QPF. Attm will heavily weight forecast to the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) guidance in lieu of consistency and need to see if/when tropical system gets its act together with respect to strengthening or not strengthening with time and eventual track. That said, forecast is for showers moving into the southern CWA vicinity of the VA/NC border by daybreak Sunday, then spreading NNW into VA during the morning. Not confident of much precip making it into WVA or far western Va so will maintain a tight gradient of POPs west of the Blue Ridge...with chance in the western CWA and near categorical east. The airmass is of tropical origin, so dewpoints will remain high thus supporting mild temperatures. In spite of cloud cover, highs will still be in the 70s and lows in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 PM EDT Saturday... Tropical low lingering near the mid-Atlantic coast will be the focus through mid week. High humidity and showers will be in the forecast as long as it remains with highest pops along and east of the Blue Ridge, and lowest in the west. Even if the deeper moisture hugs the coast, any increase in sunshine across our area will result in increasing instability with diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains. With more breaks in the cloud cover, temperatures should be warmer with 80s for highs. Lows generally in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Saturday... The air mass will remain warm and humid, with a continuation of diurnally driven deep convection. A cold front is forecast to approach the forecast area from the west Friday. If by chance the tropical low is still around, this front should give it a boot out to sea. If there is a threat for stronger sort of storms for this upcoming week, it would come with Friday`s frontal passage. Temperatures, especially the overnight lows, will favor above normal readings through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 139 AM EDT Sunday... Problem for aviation will be remnants of tropical storm Bonnie along the SC/NC today into tonight. Not a lot of consistency in model solutions on how west and north the rain and in turn the lower cigs make it this period. Based on latest guidance will lean toward the local 00z WRF combined with a blend of the 00z nam/gfs. With this in mind will see a delay in rainfall and lower cigs. At this time seems Roanoke and points east will have better threat of seeing rainfall causing cigs/vsbys to drop to mvfr or worse at times in the 18-end of taf period time though look for improvements at Roanoke after 03z/30. Further west will see some rain make it to BCB/LWB but not confident will see cigs/vsbys below 3kft. Before that already seeing a dewpoint depression of 2f at LWB and with slow down of cloudier skies, models show potential for mvfr fog after 09z at LWB so added a tempo group. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Low confidence on flight category for Monday-Thursday. Models indicate low pressure will stall over the eastern mid-atlantic and linger through mid week. Our forecast area will be on the western periphery of this feature which suggests best flight conditions will be over and west of the Blue Ridge. MVFR or lower ceilings are possible at KLYH and KDAN Sunday night and Monday.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...AMS/PM SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AMS/WP

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