Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 300739 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 339 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak frontal boundary will move south and fade today. Tropical depression eight off the Outer Banks of North Carolina will move northwest and is expected to become a tropical storm this evening, before moving away from the coast Wednesday. A stronger cold front will approach on wednesday and arrive on Thursday. Another tropical system emerging from the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday is expected to remain to our south and move offshore over the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 318 AM EDT Tuesday... Weak boundary from northern Virginia into the Central Appalachians will shift southward today. Moisture convergence along with aided by a east to southeast flow should allow for more shower coverage, mainly west of the Blue Ridge. Nonetheless, not seeing upper support as ridge remains overhead and west of the area. Appears best threat shifts to far Southwest Virginia along and west of I-77 this afternoon, with isolated coverage across the Blue Ridge. Further east, little to no coverage for showers or storms. Sunshine will give way to scattered to broken clouds this afternoon in the west with more sun in the east. High temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 80s west to around 90 east can be expected. Showers and storms will fade toward midnight over the mountains. Tropical depression 8 expected to become a tropical storm this evening per NHC as it moves toward the Outer Banks of NC. Should see little impact on our forecast area except perhaps shifting some higher moisture toward our piedmont counties overnight. Lows should not be changing much ranging from the lower to mid 60s west to upper 60s east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday... Conditions on Wednesday will be comparable to those expected today. the biggest difference will be a slight shift eastward in where the focus for where the best convection will be. Activity will be focused more along the crest of the Blue Ridge, with the best coverage across the Mountain Empire region of southwest Virginia and the Northern Mountains and Foothills of North Carolina. This will be in response to a slight shift eastward of a nearly stationary boundary across the region. This boundary will continue its slow progression southeast through and out of the area. Precipitation coverage will follow this boundary late Wednesday afternoon into the evening, but coverage will be on the decrease around and past sunset. No sooner does this boundary exit the area then a more substantial cold front is on our northwestern border around sunrise Thursday morning. In fact, the first isolated showers associated with it may reach parts of southeast West Virginia prior to sunrise. This front will progress southeast across the area on Thursday and be southeast of the area by Thursday evening. Cooler and drier high pressure will build into the area in its wake with a notably different airmass in place by Friday and Friday night. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will continue to be above normal through Thursday. Anticipate highs close to five degrees above normal with low temperatures close to ten degrees above normal. A cooler and drier airmass for Friday will yield highs around or slightly cooler than normal with low temperatures around normal for this time of year.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 400 PM EDT Monday... Model consensus is for long wave trough in the eastern CONUS to linger Saturday before upper ridging returns over the Labor Day Weekend. At the surface, a 1030 mb surface high is progged to pass across the Great Lakes and into New England, wedging down the east side of the Appalachians. If the tropical system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico tracks northeast into the western Atlantic as forecast then this will result in a very dry northeast wind Saturday between the building high from the north and the departing tropical low to our southeast. At some point (Sunday?) we should start to experience return flow on the back side of the high, the building heights resulting in moderating temperatures. With a dry airmass progged for Saturday, anticipate good radiational cooling at night. This should allow for surface temperatures to slip into the 50s for lows...and 70s to around 80 for highs. Sunday and Monday will feature warming temperatures with lows closer to 60 and highs in the 80s.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 115 AM EDT Tuesday... Will see almost a repeat of yesterday though a weak frontal boundary will allow for a little more coverage further east in convection, but still isolated. At the moment will see some scattered clouds across portions of the area this morning, mainly in the 3000-6000 ft range. Appears fog a good bet again at LWB with VLIFR taking shape by 09z. BCB/LYH may slip to MVFR for a small period between 09-12z. Morning fog will burn off by 13Z with VFR expected at all sites through the period. Isolated diurnally driven MVFR thunderstorms will develop again Tuesday afternoon. Coverage will be limited in duration and area, thus holding off on mention at taf sites for now. Best threat appears to be LWB/BLF. Extended aviation discussion... Another front will move into the region Thursday with a better chance for MVFR/IFR showers/thunderstorms, followed by cooler and drier air for Friday and Saturday. Most of the period looks VFR at this point, outside of the usual late night/early morning fog/low clouds. At this time, it does not appear that any tropical systems will impact the county warning area. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...AMS/WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP

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