Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 271707 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 107 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL STALL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1140 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA TO FORM ACROSS THE ERN OHIO VALLEY AND SHIFT SE TOWARD THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS IN THE REGION REMAINS PRETTY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE BUT ADDED ISOLATED THREAT IN BATH/GREENBRIER REGION. BUMPED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AS READINGS OUT EAST ALREADY WITH 4-5 DEGREES OF FORECAST HIGHS AND WITH FULL SUN THINK MID TO UPPER 80S IS POSSIBLE. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE EVENING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE MAV GUIDANCE...SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... CRISTOBAL WILL EXIT THE PICTURE TRACKING AWAY FROM THE US THURSDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL THEN HAVE A CHANCE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP A SURFACE REFLECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA WHICH COULD GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND A CAP OVERHEAD...ANY SHOWERS THAN FORM WILL HAVE A SHORT LIFE SPAN AND FADE WITH SUNSET. THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGE AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. WE WILL THEN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SEE IF ANY SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES. AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF SHORE...RETREATING BOUNDARY AND SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN DRIFT EAST TO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IN THIS PULSE STORM ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 210 PM EDT TUESDAY... AIRMASS CHANGE IN STORE AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN SHIFTS EWD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE HOTTER TEMPS FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY. TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST SAT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WHILE SHEARING OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO LAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE SURGING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST SHOULD START TRACKING CLOSER TO OUR AREA. SAT WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY FOR THE OFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON...BUT ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS. SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT WETTER AS THE FRONT TRACKS CLOSER BUT STILL IT LOOKS SCATTERED INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD...BEST COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS. SO FOR THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BE AWARE FOR BOTH STORMS/LIGHTNING AND HOTTER TEMPS. LABOR DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE STORMY ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF US...BUT UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INDUCING BETTER LIFT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. THE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY ARE GOING TO STILL BE VERY WARM WITH LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST...THOUGH INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SW FLOW WILL HINDER A BIG RISE IN TEMPS. BY TUESDAY...WE ARE STILL SEEING SOMEWHAT FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE NORTH OF US...WITH NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKS MORE LIKE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTN. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SOME CU STARTING TO POP TO OUR NORTH...ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MESO MODEL RH FIELDS SEEM TO CAPTURE THE MOISTURE FIELDS WELL SO WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON THEM THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. BELIEVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ANY BKN CIGS OF CU WILL BECOME SCATTERED DURING THE EVENING...SETTING UP DECENT RAD COOLING EARLY. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A SURGE OF BKN CIGS COMING IN AS NW WINDS GENERATE SOME UPSLOPE WEST OF THE RIDGE... AND POSSIBLY LIMITING DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS SEEMS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING AS LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINES WITH HEATING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE N/NE EARLY...WITH A BIT OF ENHANCEMENT TO THE EAST...THEN BECOMING NWLY TOMORROW. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 1130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ... THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. A PART HAS BEEN ORDERED BUT APPEARS REPAIRS WILL NOT BE DONE UNTIL THIS FRIDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...MBS EQUIPMENT...AMS

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