Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 271950 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 350 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move through the region this evening. High pressure will build across the region for Friday into Saturday. Another weak cold front will move through the area Sunday. This will be followed by high pressure until the end of next week along with unseasonably warm temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 pm EDT Thursday... The weak cold front continues to move through the region. The short range and longer synoptic scale models have all done a good job on indicating that the bulk of the lift/PVA and associated shower activity was going to be this morning into the early afternoon. That has indeed been the case, with showers and isolated thunderstorms moving into the Alleghanys this morning, then just scattered light rain showers traversing the eastern portions of the area this afternoon. SPC still feels that there is potential for thunder across the Piedmont, so have included an isolated thunder threat east of the front for the next few hours. However, latest SPC analysis shows little to no remaining instability. So, the thunder threat could be removed very soon as I have serious doubts that it will materialize, although a few showers may linger across the southeast part of the Piedmont for the next several hours. Overnight, upslope clouds and a few sprinkles will be the main story across the western areas, with clearing across the east. There may be a period of low end gusty winds west of the Blue Ridge through the evening, but the stronger 850mb winds are lifting north of the area overnight. Given that the post-frontal air mass is mainly continental Pacific, 850mb temps actually begin to rise, not fall behind the front Friday. Clouds overnight and turbulent mixing along with little to no cold advection should yield temperatures well above freezing once again. Clouds will decrease in the western mountains by mid-morning Friday leaving most of the CWA clear by early afternoon if not sooner. With greater insolation and slightly warming temperatures at 850mb Friday, expect afternoon maximum temperatures to be on par with readings experienced today, likely warmer across the Piedmont. Bottom line is that temperatures will continue to remain well above normal for the foreseeable future. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM EDT Thursday... Surface high pressure will track south across the region Friday night and Saturday. This high pressure system along with heights increasing aloft will keep the region dry Saturday with high temperatures warming 10F-15F above normal. Flow aloft becomes zonal Sunday resulting in similar high temperatures as Saturday. Normal high temperatures for late October range from the lower 60s across the mountains to mid to upper 60s across the foothills and piedmont. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... An upper level ridge centered over Texas will track east along the Gulf states through most of next week. This ridge will keep the region dry with any northern stream disturbances tracking east from the Great Lakes to New England. Boundaries from a few northern stream systems may dip far enough south to increase clouds and have a slight chance for rain for area north of I64 Sunday afternoon and evening and again next Thursday afternoon and night. Cool air will wedge south across the region Monday with temperatures warming to near normal. This wedge will begin to erode Tuesday with temperatures moderating 10F to 15F warmer && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 125 PM EDT Thursday... Some showers and cloud cover is in place over the region associated with an upper level disturbance. A weak cold front is also expected to cross the area during the TAF period. Winds are expected to be relatively light with the exception of some gusts at BLF. For the short term, conditions will remain VFR with some low to mid level cigs. Areas east of the mountains can expect to remain VFR through the forecast. Those locations at elevation can expect at the minimum MVFR conditions overnight. BLF should see a lower cloud deck moving overhead this evening which will cause vis restrictions. This will persist until after sunrise until enough heating takes place to burn the deck off. Some guidance suggests that visibility at LWB could become IFR late tonight, however, enough uncertainty exists as to just as far the temp will drop this evening that it was left as a tempo group. Any chances for fog will diminish shortly after sunrise. Afterward, high pressure will dominate the region and VFR conditions will prevail. Extended aviation discussion... VFR conditions should persist through the next several days as high pressure becomes the dominant feature for the region. Some possibilities for MVFR and perhaps a shower exist for Sunday ahead of another weak front, but models seem to be in disagreement with placement and this feature may very well miss the region to the north. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAB NEAR TERM...RAB SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...JH/JR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.