Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 070401 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1101 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT...AND THEN STAY SITUATED SOUTH OF US INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THIS FRONT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY BRINGING A BETTER THREAT OF RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 810 PM EST FRIDAY... BASICALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST PROVIDING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER OVERALL LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING 85H WESTERLY JET WILL ALLOW MORE MIXING ON THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION LOWERS. THUS OPENING UP THE VALLEY TO RIDGETOP RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO THE COLDER EC VALUES DEEPER VALLEYS AND OUT EAST...BUT STEADYING OUT MORE IN LINE WITH THE WARMER MET MOS AT ELEVATION. THIS MAY AGAIN PRODUCE SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NW GIVEN SNOW COVER WITH OVERALL TEENS TO LOW/MID 20S ELSEWHERE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST AND MIX ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES. THIS ALLOWS FOR TEMPS TO STEADY OUT OR RISE LATE. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND ALSO WHERE SOME LINGERING SNOW COVER LINGERS...TO LOWER TO MID 20S OVER THE NC MTNS INTO SOME PORTIONS OF FAR SW VA/SRN WV ALONG THE RIDGES...AS WELL AS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT OF NC. SOME LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH OR BREAK RECORD LOWS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. DURING SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE KEEPING CLOUD COVER MAINLY NORTH OF US SO KEPT SKIES SUNNY....THOUGH INCREASE CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL BE OCCURRING IN THE NW CWA. MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST WV TO THE MID 50S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EST FRIDAY... A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST ON BLUSTERY WEST WINDS WE WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MINOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND...AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BRUSH THROUGH THE REGION SOUTH OF I81 AND ROUTE 460 SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT A WEAK WEDGE WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL PUSH A SOLID SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVE MODERATED A GOOD BIT AND BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH AND THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE ALL LIQUID WITH NO WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY... WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE VA CAPES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PULLING EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH SLOW CLEARING IN ITS WAKE AS A MODEST BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY NUDGES EASTWARD. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART WEDNESDAY AS FAIRLY DEEP RIBBON OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UNDER AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MAINTAINING DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE AIR BEHIND THIS LOW NOT PARTICULARLY COLD ON WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS HOLDING IN THE +5C TO +7C RANGE WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. THE DEEP POOL OF MOISTURE OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW BECOMES ORGANIZED OVER THE GULF. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND STILL MILD WITH 50S AND LOW 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS 30S AND LOW 40S. INDICATIONS ARE FOR A VERY WET PERIOD COMMENCING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY AS THIS GULF SYSTEM TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO A BUILDING 1040 MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE A FAIRLY STRONG CAD DEVELOPING BOTH 12Z GFS/ECMWF H85 TEMPS WELL ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH ONSET OF PRECIP...ALTHOUGH NOT SO FAR ABOVE THAT POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP CAN BE IGNORED IN FUTURE ANALYSIS. PLENTY OF MODEL RUNS TO REFINE ANY SUCH SCENARIO. BECOMING WET LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COLD RAIN AND 1-INCH PLUS POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION APPEARING LIKELY...HYDROLOGY MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1100 PM EST FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOME PASSING HIGH OR MID CLOUDS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET. OTHERWISE WILL SEE CONTINUED VFR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SINKING TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE WEST/SW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPILL A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGES SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION TO KDAN WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. LOW PRESSURE PASSING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE CAROLINAS MAY BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A RETURN TO VFR SHOULD FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 7TH... ROANOKE 14/1960 LYNCHBURG 14/1960 DANVILLE 18/1960 BLACKSBURG 10/1960 BLUEFIELD 9/1960 LEWISBURG 15/1986 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...PC AVIATION...JH/WP CLIMATE...JH/WP

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