Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 010111 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 911 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 900 PM EDT TUESDAY... CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON OPPOSITE ENDS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH ONE MAIN AREA OVER THE NW DRIVEN BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DIVING SE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND THE OTHER OVER THE SE WITH A IMPULSE ALOFT PASSING TO THE SOUTH. THESE BANDS TO THE NW REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN LINGERING INSTABILITY OF OVER 1K J/KG ESPCLY IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THINGS HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER YET. ALSO EVENING RNK SOUNDING QUITE UNSTABLE WITHOUT ANY CAPPING SO STILL SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OUT INTO THE NEW/ROA VALLEYS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING CAUSES THINGS TO FINALLY FADE. HOWEVER GIVEN TRENDS OF MOST CELLS STAYING BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA...WENT AHEAD AND LET SEVERE WATCH 377 EXPIRE WITH MOSTLY ONLY ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO ESPCLY NORTH AND WEST. DID BUMP UP POPS TO GO WITH MORE COVERAGE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE MAJORITY FADING. OTRW FEW ADDED CHANGES WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED AND MORE CLEARING TAKES SHAPE LATE. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS FOR STORMS SWINGING FURTHER SOUTHWEST...AND WEST FROM WESTERN KY INTO THE SMOKYS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE SW VA/NW NC MTNS GIVEN THIS. MARGINAL RISK OF SVR REMAINS AROUND AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA TOMORROW. WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE WARM WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THEN SCATTERED STORMS...WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF...BUT THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT ONE OF THE STRONGER WAVES MOVES OVER OUR AREA ON THURSDAY PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. OUR AREA ALSO FALLS UNDER THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET IN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ON THURSDAY MAY KEEP INSTABILITY DOWN...WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGHEST CAPES IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS IN THE EAST. HOWEVER...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE...AS PWATS SOAR TO 1.5 TO 2.0" BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE SFC BOUNDARY IS PUSHED SOUTH INTO NC ON FRIDAY LEAVING US WITH A EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. AS A RESULT...DROPPED HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR WEST AND FAR SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE PROJECTED LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE EASTERN U.S. UNDER AN UPPER TROF THAT FLATTENS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TROF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST CLOSEST TO THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE. WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS....BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS...KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 705 PM EDT TUESDAY... DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE PERIMETER THIS EVENING WITH AN IMPULSE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND UPSTREAM OUTFLOW DRIVEN BROKEN BANDS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. THUS WILL NEED TO INIT WITH EITHER VCTS/VCSH OVER THE SE WEST VA SITES WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR VSBYS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ALSO MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT KDAN FOR CURRENT PASSING ISOLATED COVERAGE. OTRW RUNNING WITHOUT MUCH CONVECTION OTHER THAN FOR A BRIEF VCSH INCLUSION ELSW INTO THE EVENING. AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT THE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. WE WILL SEE SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS WORK INTO THE MTNS AFTER 06Z...SO KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TRIED TO TOUCH ON MORE FOG AT KLWB AND KDAN WHERE SOME RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. IF KLWB DOES SEE HEAVY RAINFALL...THEN COULD SEE A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR IN DENSE FOG THERE. AS WE HEAD THROUGH WED MORNING WE SCATTER OUT WITH VFR EXPECTED. TSRA WILL BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST. BEST THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LIE FROM KBLF-KBCB AND SOUTHWEST INTO TN. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE REGION WILL BE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULE OUT ANY OF THESE DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS TROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL COME AS TEMPORARY DECREASES WITHIN ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING DUE TO RIVER OR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...PH LONG TERM...PH AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP

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