-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 101409
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1009 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER GOING INTO TONIGHT BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT THURSDAY

UPDATED GRIDS TO RAISE POPS IN THE EAST WITH CONTINUING BANDS OF
SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHEAST FROM NC PIEDMONT. HIGH-RES NMM MODEL
SEEMS TO BE DOING BEST ON THE INITIALIZATION OF THE PRECIP PATTERN
CURRENTLY OCCURRING AND DOES SHOW SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE EAST MAY
INHIBIT THAT FROM OCCURRING. LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT IN THE EAST
WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD ON THE LONGEST TODAY.

PERVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PASSING UPPER TROF AND SURFACE WAVE SHOULD FINALLY GIVE JUST
ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO SLIDE THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SE OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE LIKELY REMAINS A BIT FAST. APPEARS STILL A NEED
FOR LIKELY POPS SE AND CHANCES BACK TO THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
EVENING...THEN A GRADUAL SE SHIFT OF DIMINISHING POPS TO ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK FOR NOW. ALSO EXPECT A DECREASE
IN CLOUDS FROM THE NW AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SE...WHICH SHOULD HELP
TEMPS COOL A BIT MORE WITH 60S MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW
50S NW AND VALLEYS IF DEWPOINTS DO INDEED DROP A LITTLE DESPITE
FOG FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TO THE COAST WHILE AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES NORTH FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
IN THE MORNING...THEN BREAKS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL THEN ALLOW PULSE STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...IF THEY CAN BREAK
THROUGH THE CAP. ANY STORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL FADING
WITH SUNSET. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE COOLER THAN NORMAL...WHILE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

A STRONG AND HOT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
STRETCH TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. OUTER RINGS OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. SO WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OHIO VALLEY FOR ANY COMPLEXES THAT COULD TRACK IN OUR
DIRECTION. FOR NOW...MODELS ARE PAINTING A SCATTERED PULSE STORM
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH STORMS FIRING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY
THE PIEDMONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
EDGE WARMER THAN NORMAL AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS SURGES INTO OUR AREA
WHICH WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY...A DEEP
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION SCATTERED.

TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A BROAD UPPER TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE HELPS
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE 06Z
GFS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. USING A BLEND OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BEFORE FALLING BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT THURSDAY...

COMMS ISSUES REMAIN AT KDAN DESPITE AN INTERMITTENT RETURN OF
OBSERVATION DATA. AMD NOT SKED CONTINUED IN THE TAF.

CLUSTERS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS...PRIMARILY FROM MID DECK WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KLYH-KDAN CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ADDED -SHRA LIKELY TO PASS NEAR KBCB/KROA THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTRW PATCHY DENSE FOG THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
ESPCLY WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR AT KLWB/KBCB AND IFR/MVFR AT KLYH
AND KDAN.

THIS FOG WILL FADE BY MID MORNING EXCEPT IN AREAS OVER THE EAST
THAT MIGHT STILL BE SEEING SOME SHOWERS LINGER. APPEARS CIGS WILL
ALSO BE SLOWER TO LIFT GIVEN SO MUCH MOISTURE AROUND SO INCLUDED
MORE LOW END VFR BASES AT MOST SPOTS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
BREAKING OUT ESPCLY WESTERN LOCATIONS TO A 4-5K CU FIELD AFTER
MIDDAY. KDAN MAY BE THE EXCEPTION WHERE LOWER CIGS LINGER BEFORE
MORE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS. MODELS KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
AROUND OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG PARTS OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL...SO KEPT VCTS AT ROA/LYH/DAN...AND KBCB.
ALSO INCLUDED A VCSH AT KBLF/KLWB PER SLOWNESS OF THE FRONT TO
PUSH SE AS EXPECT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO COMBO WITH
HEATING TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER
OVER THE WEST/NW. OTRW EXPECT VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS FOR THE
MOST PART AFTER EARLY FOG FADES.

WAVE SHOULD FINALLY TAKE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE SE
LATER THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH DRYING TO END CONVECTION
AT ALL LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

A LOWER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE
NORTH.

MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH RESULTING IN PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTRW PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS ESPCLY
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND WHERE EARLIER AFTERNOON RAINFALL OCCURRED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT THURSDAY...

US DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THIS MORNING...JULY 10 2014...SHOWS
EXPANSION OF D0...ABNORMALLY DRY CATEGORY...ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
RIVER VALLEY AND OVER PARTS OF THE VA AND NC PIEDMONT...CENTERED
AROUND DANVILLE. PULASKI COUNTY VA APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE
EPICENTER OF THE DEVELOPING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
WITH MUCH OF THAT COUNTY RECEIVING LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL
RAINFALL SINCE EARLY MAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 100 AM EDT THURSDAY...

COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGE CONTINUES WITH KDAN ASOS NOT TRANSMITTING.
THE FAA IS AWARE OF THE OUTAGE AND WILL BE WORKING ON IT...BUT NO
ESTIMATED TIME OF WHEN IT WILL BE WORKING AGAIN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS/PH/RCS/WERT
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...WP