Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 290556 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 156 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary near the region for the next several days. Disturbances moving along this boundary will allow for periodic rounds of showers and storms. Hot and humid conditions will continue into at least early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1215 AM EDT Friday... WW419 has expired. Strong to occasionally severe storms continue vcnty of Farmville. CAPE remains high (MLCAPE of 1500 j/kg) over the piedmont, so as the outflow from these storms interacts with this airmass, strong cores still possible. That said, loss of daytime heating should result in decreasing intensity, but still concerned that overall activity will persist well into the overnight with possible training of lingering thunderstorm cells along the tail end of vorticity and lingering dynamics aloft. Since this training does not appear that it will impact the previous Flash Flood Watch area (WV), the watch has been dropped. If training of cells does develop, it may be closer to a RIC-FVX- DAN line where existing outflow boundary becomes stuck between stronger westerlies to the north and the upper level ridge over the southeast U.S. On Friday, much of the region will see a break in the precipitation activity through the morning hours. We cannot rule out isolated showers or storms across the west. By the afternoon, our next approaching disturbance, along with daytime heating, will help prompt additional shower and thunderstorm development. Coverage is not expected to be as great as that anticipated this evening. The best coverage will be in the west. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 60s to the upper 60s across the mountains and around 70 to the lower 70s across the Piedmont. Highs tomorrow are forecast to be just slightly lower than those realized today. Readings around 80 to the mid 80s are forecast for the mountains with upper 80s to lower 90s across the Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 PM EDT Thursday... Frontal boundary will stay just north of us Friday night with spoke of upper energy moving east Friday evening. Timing of impulses is problematic but seems next best wave works toward the PA/OH border Saturday afternoon which may slowly nudge front southward. Appears best threat of showers and storms will be focused from far Southwest Virginia into SE WV and north of Highway 460 across Roanoke and Lynchburg north Saturday afternoon with widely scattered further south. Nonetheless kept pops no higher than 50. Temperatures stay elevated at night thanks to high pwats with lows from the mid to upper 60s west to lower 70s east. Saturday should be at or just above typical late July values of lower to mid 80s west to around 90 east. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1150 AM EDT Thursday... Belt of westerlies will be laying across the area Sunday night into Monday, with front situated across the mid-Atlantic. Afterward the upper flow takes on a more NW to SE orientation across our area as ridge builds over the Central Plains. The front weakens but convergence along it to remain through midweek. In addition, the upper pattern favors potential ridge runners, where convective clusters form over the upper midwest and shift southeast over our area. Overall, will keep threat of showers and storms in the forecast all periods but looks like Sunday-Monday have the better chance for measurable rainfall. May see slight nudge downward in temps early but overall humidity levels should stay the same, so no appreciable dry air expected thru Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Friday... Satellite pictures and surface observations indicated an extensive area of IFR to LIFR ceilings from the central Appalachians into southwest Ohio and much of eastern Kentucky. High confidence these clouds will remain over that area through sunrise this morning. Lower confidence how far east the stratus will spread. Have MVFR to IFR ceilings in at KBCB and KROA after 08Z/4AM. Ceilings will lift after 12Z/8AM and will be VFR for the rest of the day. Scattered showers and storms with MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible across the mountains after 18Z/2PM. At 06Z/2AM KLYH was reporting LIFR ceilings behind a line of strong thunderstorms. Medium confidence than ceilings will lift back up to MVFR early this morning. Extended aviation discussion... The area will remain in a relatively active period for showers and storms through Tuesday thanks to a persistent, nearly stationary frontal boundary across or near our region. Outside of the precipitation and during the daylight hours, VFR conditions are expected. Within the heavier showers and storms, and during the overnight hours sub-VFR conditions are more likely. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS/PM SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...AMS/DS

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