-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
183
FXUS61 KRNK 101737
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
137 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather pattern stays about the same into the weekend. Daily
afternoon and evening storm chances will remain along with muggy
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 120 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Spotty showers early, then scattered storms this afternoon.

2) Isolated severe threat due to increased cloud cover.

3) Flood Watch for southside VA into the NC Piedmont til this
evening.

Showers/few storms ongoing over the mountains/foothills in a
scattered fashion. Nothing robust due to earlier cloud cover
keeping instability lesser than yesterday. Still with higher
low level moisture, SBCAPEs should reach 2000-2500 J/kg, and
with another vort tracking across anticipate some stronger
storms mainly VA/NC piedmont later this afternoon. Localized
flooding also possible.

Wave moves across this evening and storms subside quicker than
last night.

The airmass stays the same Friday. Despite the absence of
pronounced low and upper level triggers, scattered
thunderstorms should develop during the late morning into the
afternoon hours. Weak shear and slightly above normal
precipitable water values will exist for scattered water-
loaded downbursts capable of producing isolated wind damage, as
well as localized flooding due to slow storm movement.

Temperatures will be muggy tonight in the 60s west to near 70
east. Sunshine should be available longer tomorrow allowing
highs close to 90 east to lower 80s west.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high, except low to moderate
on severe threat.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

1. Daily chances of primarily afternoon/evening showers/storms.
2. Localized heavy rain/flooding possible with the heavier
showers/storms.
3. Above average temperatures.

A look at the 10 Jul 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Friday night a broad ridge over much of SW through
SE CONUS. Over the northern half of CONUS, will be a more
progressive pattern with a jet near the US/Canadian border, and a
shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and one over the
Northern High Plains. For Saturday/Saturday night, the two shortwave
trough across north-central CONUS are depicted as merged into one,
more amplified trough extending from the Upper Mississippi River
Valley to the Central Plains States. Elsewhere, the persistent ridge
continues across the southern half of CONUS. For Sunday/Sunday
night, the shortwave trough shifts east to over an area from the
western Great Lakes, south into the mid-Mississippi River Valley.

At the surface, for Friday night, a weak area of low pressure is
expected to be across eastern parts mid-Atlantic and SE US. A
stronger region of low pressure is expected to be over MT/WY. High
pressure will be centered off the east coast of FL. For
Saturday/Saturday night, weak low pressure remains over portions of
VA/NC/SC with high pressure over the Gulf Coast states extending to
east of FL. A cold front will advance into the Lower Ohio Valley.
For Sunday/Sunday night, weak low pressure remains situated over
portions of the mid-Atlantic to SE US while a cold front advances
farther towards or over the Ohio Valley. High pressure remains
parked over portions of the Gulf Coast states to off the east coast
of FL.

A look at the 10 Jul 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures around +18C to +19C across the region on
Saturday and +19C to +20C on Sunday.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. The area
will remain within airmass conducive to daily chances of primarily
diurnal showers and storms and above normal temperatures. Convective
coverage may continue more into and through Sunday night, as
compared to Friday and Saturday nights thanks to the advance of a
cold front towards our region acting as a focus for upstream
development.

With plenty of available moisture, any areas which receive multiple
showers/storms in a short period of time, or experience slow moving
heavy rain producing showers/storms, could see localized flooding.
Those areas which experienced recent flooding will be more
susceptible to flooding as soil moisture levels will be higher than
surrounding regions.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is high.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

1. Daily chances of showers/storms, especially on Mon and Thurs.
2. Localized heavy rain/flooding possible with the heavier
showers/storms.
3. Above normal temperatures.

A look a the 10 Jul 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Monday/Monday night the shortwave trough over the
Great Lakes merging with a longwave trough over central Canada. The
broad ridge over the southern half of CONUS shifts a bit north. For
Tuesday/Tuesday night, little change is expected to the over
synoptic pattern. The axis of the Canadian longwave trough may shift
east slightly. For Wednesday/Wednesday night, the longwave trough
shifts a little farther east with its trough axis dipping a little
farther south into the western Great Lakes region. For Thursday, a
bit more progression east and south of the longwave trough is
forecast. Ridging remains over the southern half of CONUS.

At the surface, for Monday/Monday night, a cold front progresses
eastward, merging with what will have been a nearly stationary area
weak low pressure system over eastern portions of VA/NC/SC. High
pressure will remain parked over portions of the Gulf Coast states
to off the east coast of FL. For Tuesday/Tuesday night, high
pressure will settle over the area in the wake of one frontal
passage. However, another cold front will be upstream over the mid-
West. For Wednesday/Wednesday night high pressure will remain over
the region with a front approaching from the northwest. On Thursday,
this front draws closer, and the center of the high shifts to our
southeast.

A look at the 10 Jul 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures of +19C to +20C across the area for Monday
through Wednesday. For Thursday, values decrease just slightly to
+17C to +18C.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. Despite
having periods of time with high pressure over the area, our region
will continue within a pattern of daily chances of showers/storm.
These chances will be greatest during the times when fronts are
expected to cross our region (Mon and Thurs), but little change in
the airmass behind each front will keep the region within a moisture
rich environment. On those days without a front over the area,
enough daytime heating instability is expected to occur to help
generate showers/storms.

With plenty of available moisture, any areas which receive multiple
showers/storms in a short period of time, or experience slow moving
heavy rain producing showers/storms, could see localized flooding.
Those areas which experience flooding on one day, will be more
susceptible to flooding the next day, assuming heavy rain over the
area, as soil moisture levels will be higher than surrounding
regions.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 120 PM EDT Thursday...

A power outage at KDAN yesterday remains so amd not sked has
been added to the TAF.

Mainly VFR this afternoon/evening. Showers and storms are
expected this afternoon and evening, with most TAF sites seeing
at least VCTS, though allowed a couple hours of storms
along/east of the ROA/BCB area based on radar/model trends. Another
round of fog and stratus is likely tonight once the convection
diminishes, with IFR or lower possible.

Fog/stratus lifts in the 12-13z time frame Friday. Any storms
will hold off for the most part til after the end of this taf
period.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The pattern stays conducive for daily afternoon/evening storm
chances, some days more than others. Outside of storms, except
VFR but with potential fog/stratus late at night into the early
morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 123 PM EDT Thursday...

Power outage since Wednesday afternoon has kept observations
from being transmitted from the Danville ASOS. This will impact
climate products until the power is restored.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ044-058-059.
NC...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ004>006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...SH/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP