Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 310522 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 122 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY PROVIDING LOWER HUMIDITY. THIS HIGH WILL STAY OVER MOST OF REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL STAY DRY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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AS OF 112 AM EDT FRIDAY... DRY AIR KEEPS FILTERING IN BEHIND FRONT AS DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND EVEN TO 60 AT LYH. ALL SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE CWA AND NOT EXPECTING ANY THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS SKIES STAY MAINLY CLEAR AND MOONLIT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR UPPER 50S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60 SOUTHSIDE VA/ NW NC PIEDMONT. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE HIGH CENTER WILL BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE FOR MANY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY... A QUIET AND RATHER COMFORTABLE PERIOD LOOKS IN STORE UNDER BROAD UPPER TROFFINESS ENHANCED VIA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY WARM DAYS AND CLEAR/PLEASANT NIGHTS GIVEN DRIER DEWPOINTS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. ONLY EXCEPTIONS COULD BE WITH MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NW UNDER SLIGHTLY BETTER UPSLOPE LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN PERHAPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF SUNDAY EVENING WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED DRYNESS AND LIKELY ISOLATED NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS OPTING TO LEAVE OUT ANY POPS OR SHOWER MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE/HEATING OF DRY AIR ALLOWING HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 85-90 RANGE EAST...AND MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS DESPITE THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS. BETTER IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR TO BE FELT DURING THE OVERNIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S VALLEYS AND LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE. COOLEST NIGHT AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE 85H TROUGH...AND HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT OVERHEAD POSSIBLY ALLOWING A FEW 40S IN THE DEEPEST NW VALLEYS PENDING ANY RIVER FOG LATE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY... MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH MONDAY...AND ALONG A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW TUESDAY...BUT LOW POPS AT BEST BOTH DAYS. UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 119 AM EDT FRIDAY... VFR TO PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES THIS PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE LWB WHERE SOME FOG COULD FORM THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAWN...THOUGH WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN TEMP/DEWPOINT. EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST... MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW VFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOW THOUGH A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AGAIN LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THE FOG THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE TYPICAL PREDAWN HOURS AT LWB/BCB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/WP SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...WP

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