Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 051813 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 113 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS COLDER AIR SLIDES EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. WINTRY WEATHER ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE HEADS TO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 102 PM EST THURSDAY... UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHER SNOW BANDING AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...SOUTH TO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY EAST TO THE PIEDMONT NORTH OF HWY 460. GOOD FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 800-750MB LAYER WITH EPV ATOP OVER THE ALLEGHANYS SHOWING BANDING POTENTIAL EXISTS WHICH IS EVIDENT ON RADAR. STILL NOT PLANNING ON HEADLINE CHANGES...THOUGH THINK APPOMATTOX COUNTY COULD EXCEED 4 INCHES BY EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE LIMITED ON AMOUNTS. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF START CLEARING THINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 3-4 PM...THEN EXITS THE PIEDMONT BY 03Z. HOWEVER...THEY SHOW POTENTIAL NARROW BAND OVER THE ROANOKE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD DUMP ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES...IF THIS SETS UP. && .SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONE LAST SHOT OF FRIGID AIR FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS WE START FRIDAY MORNING OFF WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL KEEP FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT...CAUSING THE COLDER AIR TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH. WILL START SATURDAY OFF WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HELPING AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...ALBEIT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S WEST TO THE MID/UPPER 50S EAST. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BRINGING LIGHT RAIN EARLY IN THE NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. WHILE EACH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS...THERE HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENCIES AS TO WHETHER OR NOT...AND WHEN...AND WHAT TRACK A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY GET PICKED UP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN FAVORABLE OF THIS OCCURRENCE. THE ECMWF WAS OPTIMISTIC ON AN ARRIVAL A SOUTHERN SYSTEM ON MONDAY. OUR FORECAST TODAY WILL REFLECT TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE THINKING THAT THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...AND WE WILL CONTINUE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE. IT WILL ALSO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE 850 MB FLOW WILL BE MORE W-NW. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATES IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE LATEST TRENDS BRING THE GFS INTO PLAY NOW FOR BRINGING A SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THE CANADIAN AND ECWMF STILL A LITTLE EARLIER. IN ADDITION TO THE SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY...WE WILL ALSO ADD WEDNESDAY INTO THE MIX TO REFLECT THE MODEL VARIATIONS AND A SMALL POTENTIAL EACH DAY FOR A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO PROGRESS OVER OR NEAR THE REGION. WHILE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY. EXPECT A RANGE OF LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1255 PM EST THURSDAY... POOR FLYING WEATHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET AND SNOW. MODELS ALL CLEAR THINGS OUT THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT DAN THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...MODELS ARE HINTING AT FOG POTENTIAL IN THE WEST WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND DID ALLOW FOR MVFR/IFR FOG AT BCB/LWB. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON FOG. EXTENDED FORECAST... FRIDAY TO SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER. SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH BRIEF MVFR EXPECTED. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 1030 AM EST THURSDAY... FLOODING STILL ONGOING OVER THE BLUESTONE AND CLINCH RIVERS. PRECIP CHANGING TO SLEET/SNOW WILL CUT BACK ON RUNOFF WHILE TEMPS FALL. WILL BE WATCHING THE UPPER JAMES AND THE GREENBRIER RIVERS AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD CONCERNS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007- 009>018-022-034. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ019- 020-023-024. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ032-033-043>046-058-059. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ035- 047. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001- 002-018. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ003>006-019-020. WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/WP SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AMS/WP HYDROLOGY...PM

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