Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 052337 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 737 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM KENTUCKY THIS MORNING TO ALONG THE NC/VA COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING....THEN TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OF PA/NY BY SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY... PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE LOW CIRCULATION AND THE BEST FORCING WILL GRADUALLY FOCUS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WHERE A STEADY RAIN WILL LINGER MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AND THIS WILL LESSEN THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY IN THE FORECAST BUT A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY SO EVEN WITH A HEFTY DOSE OF RAINFALL TODAY WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE AND SOME WET SNOWFLAKES CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS HEADS EASTWARD. LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT TRAVELS THROUGH OUR REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHICAL EFFECTS MAY OVERCOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODEL SOLUTIONS OF GFS AND ECMWF ARE LOOKING A LITTLE WETTER WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A WAVY WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IN THE OHIO VALLEY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AS SEEN IN THE LIS IS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO MIDWEEK. THEN...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 735 PM EDT THURSDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY...CREATING ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE BETWEEN LOW-END VFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL WAVES AND BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LOWER RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS (LWB-BLF) THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW JOGS TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE (BCB-ROA)...THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE TO THE PIEDMONT (LYH-DAN) THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING...CELLING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITIES AND IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE LOW ACTUALLY TRACKS TO THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THIS LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...JR/RCS CLIMATE...CF

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