Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 190517 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 117 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 1100 PM EDT THURSDAY... BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MAINTAINED THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT PER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE IS BANKED UP ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH TIME THUS SUPPORTING MENTION OF SPOTTY -RA/DZ. RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE L-M50S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGE SOUTH DOWN THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL CREATE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LIMITED...AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH MIXING MAY ERASE DRIZZLE/FOG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY AND RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH AREAS KEEPING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM EDT THURSDAY... MODEL TRENDS HAVE SPED UP THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVING SUNDAY NOW INSTEAD OF MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO WEDGE SOUTHWEST INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER CLOUDY SKY CAN BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND EITHER SIDE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT SKIES CLEAR OUT SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH MAIN LIFT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN PIVOTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS WV SUNDAY NIGHT..AND COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS HERE. MAY SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY TO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL CHANCE OF PRECIP IS 20/30...HIGHER INTO WV. TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL MODIFY TO SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S...EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 80S SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY... THIS PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AND SEASONAL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY MONDAY AND COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREAS AS FLOW BACKS ALOFT SOME. THEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST PUSHES EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUE- WED. TEMPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL DOWN SOME...BUT NOT LOOKING AS CHILLY AS EARLIER THOUGHT...WITH 8H TEMPS +10-12C. HIGHS WILL RUN FROM THE 60S WEST TO 70S EAST...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 100 AM EDT FRIDAY... HIGH END STRATO-CU ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD MID DECK PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ATTM WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BEING FED VIA RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGING JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ACTUAL COOL FRONT THAT WILL SET A MORE EASTERLY REGIME INTO MOTION OVERNIGHT STILL LAGGING TO THE NORTH SO IFFY AS TO HOW MUCH CIGS WILL FALL BY DAYBREAK GIVEN CURRENT CANOPY. THIS SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STUCK TO THE SOUTH AND BOUNDARY LAYER DRY ADVECTION WINNING OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOWN IN DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM IFR IN STRATUS/DZ/FOG TO VFR OUTSIDE OF PATCHY FOG LATE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE GOING TRENDS OF LOWERING CIGS THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN SPOTS BY DAWN ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE WHILE SLOWING DOWN THE ONSET A BIT. MAY END UP WITH A RIBBON OF ONLY IFR/LIFR AT KBCB/KROA AND MAINLY MVFR TO BRIEF IFR ELSW BUT LOW CONFIDENCE. SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NE NEAR KLYH AND JUST SW OF KDAN SO WILL INCLUDE A VCSH MENTION IN THESE SPOTS EARLY ON AND KEEP SOME -DZ MENTION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE CIGS DO LOWER EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS TEND TO LIFT SOME ESPCLY AWAY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE. OTRW OVERALL LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR MOST SITES ALL DAY...BUT VSBYS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR AFT 15Z/11AM. WINDS BECOMING ENE- ESE OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 5-7KTS...INCREASING TO 7-10KTS AFT 14Z/10AM FRI. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW END GUSTS IN USUALLY FAVORED SOUTHEAST WIND AREAS...SUCH AS BLF...AFT 15Z FRI. CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING PENDING DEGREE OF EROSION/COVERAGE HEADING INTO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO TRENDING BACK TOWARD MVFR FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS IN FOG AND STRATUS LIKELY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOME ADDED PATCHY -DZ POSSIBLE. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... WEDGE SHOULD ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUN WITH -SHRA AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSRA WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED AND SO IS DEEP MOISTURE. WITH A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST AT THE SAME TIME...WE MAY BE IN A STRONG SUBSIDENCE AREA AND SEE LITTLE MORE THAN -SHRA OR SPRINKLES EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS SUN-EARLY MON AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY NW FLOW. THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCAL EARLY MORNING MVFR-IFR FOG CONDITIONS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/KK NEAR TERM...KK/PM SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB

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