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073
FXUS61 KRNK 010045
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
845 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move through the region late Tuesday, bringing
widespread storms capable of producing damaging winds. Post
FROPA, a slightly cooler and less humid airmass moves into the
region by Thursday, with a warm but pleasant holiday weekend in
store for most of the area with little to no rainfall expected.
By early next week, the typical summertime daily afternoon
thunderstorm pattern returns.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 840 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Patchy dense fog expected overnight.

2) Widespread storms are expected Tuesday afternoon, some of
which could produce damaging wind gusts and very heavy rainfall.

Scattered storms are beginning to wane as daytime heating is
being lost and the storms earlier this afternoon used up the
available energy across the area. Still, any remaining storms
will produce quick, heavy bursts of rainfall and frequent
lightning. By midnight, quiet weather returns area-wide, with
calm winds and clearing skies allowing for patchy dense fog to
form overnight, particularly in the valleys.

A frontal boundary with aid from an upper-level trough will
move towards the area tomorrow, causing widespread storms across
the area during the afternoon hours. Some storms could produce
damaging winds, with localized flooding possible due to very
heavy rainfall. For the evening update, adjusted PoPs to account
for ongoing storms, and slightly raised dewpoints to match
observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion...

As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1) Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected Tuesday,
with potential for damaging winds in addition to heavy rain and
poor drainage flooding.

Loss of daytime heating should bring end to most of the storm
activity...at least east of the Appalachian Divide. Convective
allowing models support lingering activity along the Appalachian
divide of West Virginia (NW of LWB) where convergence will
persist through the overnight per increasing southwest winds
ahead of an approaching front across WV. Other than WV,
decreased pops elsewhere with only a slight chc of a shower
overnight with main emphasis on some late night patchy fog.
Temperatures tonight will remain warm and muggy with little or
no relief per dewpoints remaining AOA 70.

An upper-level trough will traverse the region on Tuesday,
preceding a cold front. The trough will encourage a large area
of prefrontal lift, encouraging scattered to numerous showers
and storms by afternoon. Combination of surface temperatures in
the 80s and dewpoints of 70+ should provide for CAPE in excess
of 2000 j/kg to foster ample opportunity for at least loosely
organized storm activity which would promote isolated damaging
wind gusts from thunderstorm outflow and wet microbursts. The
entire forecast area has been highlighted by SPC for a marginal
risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms Tuesday and a slight risk
(level 2 of 5) for NoVA where 30 kts of effective bulk shear is
being driven by stronger wsw mid-level wind flow.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Monday...

Key message:

1)  Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity possible Wednesday,
transitioning into clear skies and dry weather on Thursday.

The cold front and associated thunderstorms should be clearing the
area by Tuesday night across the region; however, by Wednesday
morning, some post frontal showers may still be lingering West of
the Blue Ridge. This lingering moisture at the surface may lead to
some shower and thunderstorm activity along the ridgelines west of
the Blue Ridge Wednesday afternoon; however, this activity should
remain isolated in nature as much drier air aloft is forecast to
have already advected into the region behind the front, which should
be draped along coastal Virginia and North Carolina by Wednesday
afternoon. As upper level troughing settles into the Northeast,
surface high pressure is expected to settle over the MidAtlantic
states. This will lead to a few cool mornings in the upper 50s and
low 60s west of the Blue Ridge, and mid 60s east of the Blue Ridge
thanks to efficient radiational cooling. While lows will be on the
cool side, high temperatures will still be near or slightly above
average on Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures in the upper 80s
to low 90s each day east of the Blue Ridge, and low to mid 80s west
of the Blue Ridge. With High pressure completely established and
anchored to the region on Thursday, expect mostly clear skies and
dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Monday...

Key message:

1)  Dry weather will continue through the end of the work week, with
a gradual warm up to slightly above normal temperatures expected.

Surface high pressure and upper level troughing look to linger
across the MidAtlantic states and the Northeast through the end of
the work. PWATs will also drop down to around 1.00 inches for the
area, which will keep any chance for rain out of the forecast
through at least Friday. An upper level cut-off low off the
California coastline will eventually enter the northern jet stream
sometime mid-week, and make its way across the Great Lakes region by
the weekend. By this time, the upper level trough over the eastern
conus is expected to be pushed east allowing upper level ridging to
build over the eastern conus. This will bring back the moisture rich
PWATs of 1.5 inches to 1.8 inches by late Saturday, and a gradual
warm up to slightly above normal temperatures in the low to mid 90s
east of the Blue Ridge, and upper 80s to low 90s west of the Blue
Ridge. As that aforementioned upper level trough pushes east into
the eastern Great Lakes, daily isolated to scattered chances look to
return to the forecast starting Sunday. More widespread chances of
showers and thunderstorms look possible on Monday as the frontal
boundary associated with the upper level trough approaches the
region Monday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 840 PM EDT Monday...

All terminals continue to have VFR flight conditions this
evening, though scattered showers/storms are still near
LWB/BLF, which could briefly reduce flight conditions if they
move over a terminal. Rain chances continue through midnight,
though begin to decrease dramatically after 01z. With light
winds and clearing skies, patchy dense fog is expected
overnight, between 06-12z Tuesday. While all terminals could
see a reduction in visibility from the fog and MVFR flight
conditions, the most likely areas to see dense fog will be
BCB/LWB, with possible IFR/LIFR conditions between 08-12z. All
terminals return to VFR flight conditions shortly after 12z.

For Tuesday, showers will likely impact BLF/LWB late morning,
again causing sub-VFR flight conditions at times. As a frontal
boundary approaches the area, afternoon storms are likely area-
wide after 18z, which could produce gusty winds of 20-25+ knots.
Any terminal impacted by these storms will see reduced
visibility, gusty winds, and very heavy rainfall. Due to the
enhancement from an upper-level trough, widespread storms will
likely continue through the end of the TAF period, though the
best chances will be for LYH/DAN after 21z. Showers/storms
continue into the overnight before dissipating.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Passage of a cold front will bring bring drier conditions back
to the region for Wednesday and Thursday. VFR conditions are
expected outside of morning valley fog Wednesday through next
weekend, with only isolated chances for showers and
thunderstorms expected late in the week.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JCB/PM
NEAR TERM...JCB/PM
SHORT TERM...EB
LONG TERM...EB
AVIATION...JCB/PM