Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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067 FXUS61 KRNK 310159 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 959 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving frontal boundary will drift into the region tomorrow and bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region, especially along and west of the Blue Ridge, through Thursday. High pressure will then build in from the upper midwest with cooler and pleasant weather conditions expected for the end of the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 955 PM EDT Tuesday... Isolated showers will gradually dissipate overnight. Otherwise a mostly clear sky, light wind and high amounts of low level moisture will result in some valley fog developing once again late. A weak frontal boundary will drift in from the northwest Wednesday and give a boost to convective development during the afternoon with coverage more widespread that what we have seen the past few days. Orographic affects and unstable air pooling ahead of the front will keep the best chance for thunderstorms along the Blue Ridge. Little in the way of any severe threat as overall synoptic support for organized convection continues to be absent. Expect lows tonight in the mid/upper 60s east of the Blue Ridge with low/mid 60s west. Highs Wednesday will be around 90 east to low/mid 80s west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday... Active tropical scene anticipated Thursday into Friday as area of tropical low pressure moves from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to along the southeast Atlantic Coast. This feature is progged to steer clear of our forecast area, but should be monitored never the less for changes (Please refer to WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV for the latest information). For much of the central Appalachians and points north, the weather will be influenced by a deepening upper level trough which is forecast to amplify over the Great Lakes and New England Thursday. The associated surface cold front is progged to cross our CWA during the day Thursday with potential for showers. Timing of the front suggests little in the way of CAPE for thunderstorms until front reaches the piedmont Thursday afternoon. The front is forecast to clear the CWA by midnight Thursday night, dewpoints and temperatures taking a noticeable tumble. Model consensus is for the upper trough to provide an avenue for the tropical system to follow as it passes off the mid Atlantic coast late Friday. In its wake, high pressure will build in from the north, resulting in a cooler drier airmass to infiltrate the central appalachians yielding nice start to the Holiday weekend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday... Model consensus is for the long wave trough in the eastern CONUS to linger Saturday before upper ridging returns over the Labor Day Weekend. At the surface, a 1030 mb surface high is progged to pass across the Great Lakes and into New England, wedging down the east side of the Appalachians. Initially temperatures will be pleasantly cool with readings 5 degrees or so below normal Saturday, then inch upward a degree or two each day with near normal temperatures to to start off next week and close out what a lot of folks view as the wrap-up of summer. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 735 EDT Tuesday... Isolated showers and thunderstorms will subside this evening with quiet weather for the overnight period. Expect development of fog/stratus again tonight with LIFR at KLWB, some IFR for KBCB, and MVFR for KDAN. Highest confidence in the thickness of the fog is at KLWB. Any fog/stratus will burn off early Wednesday morning and believe the bulk of precipitation chances associated with a weak frontal boundary drifting in form the northwest will hold off until after 18Z. Areal coverage of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon will be too limited to include in the TAF at this time. Overall, the best probability will be along the southern Blue ridge. Extended aviation discussion... A front will move into the region Thursday with a better chance for MVFR/IFR showers/thunderstorms, followed by cooler and drier air for Friday into Sunday. Most of the period looks VFR at this point, outside of the usual late night/early morning fog/low clouds. At this time, it does not appear that any tropical systems will impact the county warning area. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AMS/MBS

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