Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 281141 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 741 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO VIRGINIA AND COLD FRONT INTO LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 420 AM EDT THURSDAY... A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING DOWN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MSAS ANALYSIS AT 08Z/4AM SHOWED STABLE AIR HAD ADVANCED SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE ROANOKE VALLEY AND WELL INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. THE STABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN RETREAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH HOW FAR EAST AND NORTH THE COOLER...STABLE AIR WILL PULL BACK. THIS WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON HOW TEMPERATURES TODAY. PLACES THAT REMAIN IN THE COOLER AIR WILL HAVE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. RADAR SHOWED A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE EAST OF DANVILLE AND LYNCHBURG BEFORE 10AM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE WARM...UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 AM EDT THURSDAY... THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY BUT AN INVERTED TROF WILL BE LINGERING OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND THIS LOOKS TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FOR THE FAR NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THIS TROF ERODES HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL BRING COOLER...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL START TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION AND PUSH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE AREA FORM THE SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL GENERATE A GOOD AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 325 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE MID WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT OVER THIS WEDGE OF COOL AIR. WARM MOIST AIR AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO KICK THIS WEDGE AND RAIN EAST AND OFF SHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH MAY HANG OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS ARE BRINGING A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP OUR DRY SPELL BRIEF. MONDAY TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH NEAR 70F WEST AND MID 70S EAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY`S TEMPERATURES MAY TREND COOLER BASED ON THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 735 AM EDT THURSDAY... CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD KDAN. BASED ON CURRENT SPEED AND DIRECTION THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE AIRPORT AT THE 12Z START OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE BECOMES MUCH...MUCH LOWER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. STABLE AIR...WITH IFR CEILINGS...WAS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. THIS STABLE AIR MAY RETREAT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TODAY. LOCATIONS IN THE WARMER..MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE IN EXTREME SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...INCLUDING KDAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND THE LOWER CLOUDS. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR AND VFR RETURN AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...AMS/JH

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