Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 190438 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1138 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Upper low over the central Appalachians tonight moves east of the region early on Sunday, leading to a couple days of mild and dry weather. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal for the next 5 to 7 days. After tonight, the next chance for rain is not until Tuesday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1117 PM EST Saturday... Keeping mainly drier and less cloudy forecast for the eastern 3/4ths of the forecast area. Will see some clouds and showers around WV into portions of the NC/TN border overnight but even that will be scattered or isolated. Expect some clouds from time to time creeping toward the Blue Ridge but overall mostly clear skies expected. Some fog added as well to the forecast across the WV to NC mountains late depending on how much rain occurs and clearing. Temperatures still on target overnight with milder readings in the 40s. Previous valid discussion... For Sunday: Upper low opens up into an open wave and exits off the Atlantic coast Sunday morning. While many areas will likely start off mostly clear to partly cloudy, the leftover showers and overcast in far western areas begins to improve as shortwave ridging aloft builds back over top of the forecast area later in the day. Due to "cold" advection (850 mb temps only falling to around +4 to +6C) and steepening low-level lapse rates, northwesterly winds should turn breezy. I`ve also lowered dewpoints somewhat a bit more than raw and statistical guidance would indicate during the afternoon hours given some dry air mixing potential. Highs may be only a degree or two lower for the Piedmont, foothills into the Roanoke Valley compared to today - upper 60s to low 70s, but closer to the upper 50s to low 60s due to some cloud cover for areas along/west of the Blue Ridge. While well above normal, projected forecast highs are just below record highs for our long-term climate sites. See the climate section for more details on these high temperature records.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 307 PM EST Saturday... Surface high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will move east Sunday night and Monday and will be offshore on Tuesday. Some return flow around the high off the Atlantic but low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will limit return of Gulf Moisture. 500MB ridge over the eastern United States until Tuesday then a weak short wave in the northern stream will bring a weak front through at the surface. GFS has this feature moving east faster than some of the other guidance. Not out of the question to have the probability of precipitation arrive in the mountains late in the day Tuesday. Maximum temperatures on Monday will be above normal. Based on enough sunshine and a dry air mass have gone slightly above guidance. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 307 PM EST Saturday... Best probability of precipitation from the northern stream short wave will be on Tuesday night. 500 mb pattern becomes more amplified on Friday and Saturday with a deepening trof moving across the central United States and more spread showing up in the modest by that time frame. Increasing southwest winds on Friday will increase moisture and keep temperatures above normal ahead of the front. Timing of the frontal passage across the Appalachians looks to be on Saturday morning with precipitation along and ahead of the boundary. Much colder air comes in behind the front for the end of the weekend. The combination of a modest low level jet and strong cold air advection will result in strong gusty winds behind the front, possibly through Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1132 PM EST Saturday... Expect a trickier forecast tonight into early Sunday over the mountains. Satellite showing MVFR to IFR cigs working eastward from KY/TN and far southwest VA toward southern WV. At the moment expect cigs to be MVFR to at times IFR at BLF through mid morning Sunday with LWB at time sinking to MVFR. The NAM/GFS showing lower cigs to BCB but satellite forecast from the models are mainly keeping broken cigs west of BCB through Sunday, so left it out for now. At the moment not expecting much fog but BLF could see some as a few showers pop up after 07z. Further east the skies are going to stay mainly clear. As the upper low moves east of the area by late Sunday morning some increase in wind speed occurs especially in the mountains to Roanoke, but gusts should be held under 25 mph. Medium confidence in ceilings, visibilities and winds during the taf period.. Extended Aviation Discussion... High pressure should bring VFR Sunday night through Tuesday. MVFR rain showers are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday with the next weak cool front crossing the region midweek. A stronger cold front arrives for the end of the week with better chance for MVFR/IFR showers.
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&& .CLIMATE... As of 307 PM EST Saturday... Record High Temperatures and Year of Occurrence Feb 19 Blacksburg, VA..65 in 1994 Bluefield, WV...66 in 1994 Danville, VA....73 in 1981 Lynchburg, VA...76 in 1939 Roanoke, VA.....77 in 1939 Feb 20 Blacksburg, VA..68 in 1984 Bluefield, WV...67 in 1986 Danville, VA....74 in 1971 Lynchburg, VA...76 in 1930 Roanoke, VA.....75 in 1939 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AL/WP NEAR TERM...AL/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...AL/KK/WP CLIMATE...AL

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