Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 280302 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1002 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1000 PM EST THURSDAY... SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES. CALLED COUNTY DOT AND EOC CENTERS FROM BATH DOWN TO WATAUGA. MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE IN WATAUGA AND ASHE WHERE MUCH OF THE COUNTY HAS RECEIVED UP TO AN INCH THIS EVENING...2 INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TAZEWELL AND BATH COUNTIES ALSO HAD SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION...BUT ALL COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE NC COUNTIES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. WITH CAA AND UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...BUT LIKELY TAPERING OFF AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT DIMINISHING AS SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. NOT ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE POSTED AN SPS FOR MOST COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT FROM BATH TO WATAUGA THROUGH 13Z. LINES UP WELL WITH THINKING OF SURROUNDING OFFICES. AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY... EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH COMBINING WITH NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND ASSOCIATED CAA/UPSLOPE FLOW TO TRIGGER -SHSN THROUGH THE ALLEGHANYS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. SINCE -SHSN HAVE BEEN REPORTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS FAR EAST AS BCB AND OTHER NEARBY SITES...HAVE INCREASED POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF -SHSN. MOST WILL BE FLURRIES...BUT AT TIMES...NOTING BANDING OF PCPN ON RADAR...THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVIER -SHSN...ESPECIALLY UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/ALLEGHANYS. POPS VARY FROM LIKELY NW GREENBRIER WHERE AN 1 OR SO OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE OVERNIGHT...TO 0 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. T/TD APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY... UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM -2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE NOVEMBER. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY... FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY... APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 645 PM EST THURSDAY... UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVE TRIGGERING SCT -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW -SHSN SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH CAA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB AND BLF. THE THREAT FOR THIS WILL DECREASE AFT 06Z AND THE MAIN SHORT WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 18Z FRI. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT SPEEDS OF 6-10KTS...WITH LOW END GUSTS REMAINING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY... VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...PC/RAB SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...PC/RAB EQUIPMENT...AMS

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