Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 252318 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 618 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will continue to push east of the area and offshore this evening. High pressure will build in from the west overnight into Sunday before passing off the southeast coast later Sunday night and Monday. A warm front will lift northeast toward the region early next week resulting in an increasing chance of showers by Tuesday into Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 PM EST Saturday... The cold front/line of convection will move east of the piedmont and away from the forecast area by 4PM, therefore we will cancel the severe thunderstorm watch #39. As the cold front tracks to the coast this evening, modest pressure rises and a 45kt cross barrier jet will bring breezy conditions to the region. Winds will begin to subside over the piedmont after midnight but remain breezy across the mountains, especially along the Blue Ridge where subsidence will be the greatest. Gusts up to 45 mph are possible this evening. High pressure builds in by noon Sunday allowing the winds to subside. An upper level trough will pivot over the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic region overnight. A short wave axis and lingering low level moisture may produce light snow across Western Greenbrier this evening. Flow becomes zonal after midnight and trajectories are lost from the Great Lakes to end snow showers shortly after midnight. Dry high pressure will keep the area dry with clear skies Sunday. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 20s across the mountains and lower 30s east of the Blue Ridge. Believe it or not, these temperatures are normal for this time of year. Couple the cold temperatures and wind, Sunday morning temperatures will feel like they are in the teens across the mountains and low 20s in the east. Once the wind relaxes, abundant sunshine will help warm temperatures into the mid 40s west to mid 50s east. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM EST Saturday... High pressure heads off the coast Sunday night. A warm front lifts north across us Monday into Tuesday bringing a threat of rain, albeit low chance as main low and energy stay over the midwest. Temperatures warm back to above seasonal levels Tuesday as we get into the warm sector. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM EST Saturday... Not much change from previous forecast. Will see upper trough move east to the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. A strong cold front moves across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperature slide back to normal or below normal as we dry out Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 615 PM EST Saturday... Cold front and associated moisture now east of the region with ongoing drying leading to VFR under gusty winds to start this evening. Strong subsidence along with deepening cold advection should then keep winds gusty across the mountains overnight into Sunday morning, while speeds subside east of the ridges later this evening. Upslope clouds under the passing cold pool may spill far enough south to result in a return to low end VFR cigs for KBLF/KLWB later this evening with ocnl MVFR possible overnight. However quite uncertain to the extent of the cloud cover and any snow showers given ongoing mixing and dry air. For now will include some cigs western mountains overnight but keep them VFR until seeing just how expansive the canopy may become. Otherwise high pressure to build in overnight and Sunday before sliding offshore by Monday. This looks to keep VFR under overall light winds in place from Sunday into early next week with perhaps some increase in mid/high clouds by Monday. Extended Aviation Discussion... A warm front is expected to lift northeast toward the region Monday night into Tuesday before passing to the north on Wednesday. This will keep a threat of showers in place including periods of sub-VFR Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front pushes east into the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night with potential for more widespread MVFR/IFR in showers until the boundary exits the area early Thursday. Strong northwest winds along with mountain sub-VFR in upslope low clouds and light precip will likely follow the front for much of Thursday. Expect downslope drying to return VFR to eastern locations by Thursday afternoon.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS NEAR TERM...RCS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...JH/RCS

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