Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 101024 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 524 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES.TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 445 AM EST TUESDAY... POSTED A WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO CAPTURE WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 5 BELOW FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY. BROAD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR COMBINED WITH THE SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AFTER THE FIRST ROBUST SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE UPSLOPE LIFT MAY HOLD INTO TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL RANGE FROM A COATING TO AS MUCH AS 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY. MODERATE PRESSURE RISES OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY COULD BRING GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TEENS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE....THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TEENS. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 430 AM EST WEDNESDAY... MULTIPLE WINTER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE FORM OF FOR THURSDAY...TAIL END OF LONG STANDING UPSLOPE EVENT FINALLY WINDING DOWN. FEEL THAT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE 1 INCH OR LESS AND MOSTLY ENDING BY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES...AS THE FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND THE TROUGH AXIS TEMPORARILY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. THIS ALLOWS THE UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND COLD ADVECTION TO SUBSIDE. 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE MORNING AROUND -17C IN THE NORTH TO -12C IN THE SOUTH...WARMING SLIGHTLY BE AFTERNOON TO -16C IN THE NORTH TO -10C IN THE SOUTH. STILL A VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WILL LEAVE ALL AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WELL BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BARELY ABOVE TO THE EAST. FOR FRIDAY...A STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERN U.S. POLAR TROUGH QUICKLY TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS THIS SYSTEM TRANSLATES INTO THE PIEDMONT...A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO FORM AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ALONG THE SC/NC COAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS STRONG DYNAMICS...AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY. NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS PAINT A SOLID SWATH OF LIGHT QPF TRACKING MAINLY FROM SW VA TOWARD THE MTV/DAN AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A VERY COLD...DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGH...AND A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS LIKELY. NO PROBLEM WITH IT STICKING TO THE GROUND EITHER AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 20S DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE MAIN FOCUS RELOCATES TO THE COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS CLIPPER PRECEDES THE NEXT SURGE OF SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BEGIN AGAIN IN EARNEST ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. BY SATURDAY...A STRONG 1047MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE SETTLING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. THIS AIR MASS WILL CLEARLY BE THE COLDEST AIR MASS WE HAVE SEEN SINCE FEBRUARY 2015. WHILE THE EXTREME COLD/CORE OF THIS AIR MASS WILL TRACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WHERE 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR -36C...WE WILL SEE -22C OR SO HERE...WHICH EXCEEDS ARE COLDEST AIR MASS IN JANUARY BY ABOUT 5C OR SO. BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND WIND CHILLS APPEAR QUITE SIGNIFICANT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR -20 TO -25C IN WESTERN HIGH ELEVATIONS AREAS...AND WIND CHILLS TO NEAR -5C AS FAR AS AS THE PIEDMONT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THIS PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 515 AM EST WEDNESDAY... SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND VERY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT BELOW ZERO IN THE WEST TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EAST. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM...ESPECIALLY PER ECMWF...AS A DEEP TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AMONG THE MODELS...THE GFS IS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE ARE ALSO CONCERNS ABOUT THE PTYPE AS WARMER AIR ENCROACHES...AT LEAST ALOFT...INTO THE PIEDMONT. WINTER PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AT THIS POINT...WITH SNOW THE MOSTLY LIKELY PTYPE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SNOW TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/PERHAPS EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...ACROSS THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE PIEDMONT. THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE VERY COLD AND AT THIS POINT THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A POOR DEGREE ON THE INTENSITY OR DEPTH OF THIS COLD AIR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY FIGURE INTO THE EQUATION. NEEDLESS TO SAY...ALL INTERESTS WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME WILL WANT TO REMAIN ABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM. PROJECTED QPF GREATER THAN 1 INCH FOR PARTS OF THE CWA AND POSSIBLE AT LEAST WEAK COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT DOES SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE...OR PERHAPS EVEN SLEET IN SOME PIEDMONT AREAS. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THE BITTER COLD OF THE WEEKEND WILL ABATE...BUT TEMPERATURES...OUTSIDE THE PIEDMONT...WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1145 PM EST TUESDAY... KEEPING WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF MVFR TO AT TIMES IFR IN BLF WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES GETTING MODERATE TO HEAVY. SEEMS LWB/BCB WILL STAY MVFR...WITH BCB GOING VFR AFTER 12Z WED. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WRN SLOPES BUT A FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER COULD BREACH THE NEW RVR VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS EXPECTED OVER 20 KTS AT LEAST INTO ROA/BCB DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY WEAKEN AT TIMES WED EVENING. EXPECT VFR ROA EAST...WITH SKIES BKN V SCT THIS MORNING THEN CLEARING OUT MORE BY DAYS END. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... SUB-VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES INTO THURSDAY WITH PRIMARY AREA OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO THE WEST...UPSLOPE...SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT KBLF/KLWB WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA/NC. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE DECREASES. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM POSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEM...BRINGING THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN MONDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ007- 009>012-015-019-020. NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-508. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ042>044- 507. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ043-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...RCS/WP SHORT TERM...RAB LONG TERM...AMS/RAB AVIATION...JM/RCS/WP

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