Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 291724 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 124 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary slides to the mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday morning, while a tropical depression closes in toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The front then steers the tropical system off the northeast midweek. A stronger front arrives Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As 0f 847 AM EDT Monday... Made some adjustments in cloud cover for this morning. In general increase clouds in the southeast portions of forecast area. Adjusted temperatures and dew points with sfc obs and trends for late morning into this afternoon, then shaped towards the lav guidance for this afternoon. The Hiresw-arw east, RNK WRFARW and HRRR support isolated to scattered convection in the northwest portions of the forecast area, mainly after 19z. More changes later this morning.... As of 238 AM EDT Monday... Surface high situated from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic to stay in place today. Meanwhile, tropical depression eight resides east of the Outer Banks. Models show this system shifting west- northwest toward Cape Hatteras by 12z Tuesday. Actually could see some mid and high clouds from it today in the eastern half of the forecast area. Pattern seems similar to yesterday over the mountains and models favor an area of convergence into Southeast WV and far Southwest Virginia this afternoon, so kept chance pops there with slight chance into portions of the New River Valley. With a light northeast to east wind at the surface with upper ridge overhead still expect a warmer than normal day but humidity should not be stifling. Highs will range from around 90 in the Piedmont, to mid to upper 80s in the west, but cooler on the ridges. Models subside any convection this evening but GFS showing some increase in 8h moisture overnight. This may seem overdone but could see some strato-cu/stratus somewhat across the Blue Ridge and east late. Will mainly stay mostly clear to partly cloudy but something to watch. Low temperatures will be in the 60s most areas. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 AM EDT Monday... A weak frontal boundary will enter the region on Tuesday and stall through Wednesday fueled partly by weak shortwave troughs moving eastward along the U.S./Canadian border. The presence of the front will help be the focus for isolated to scattered showers across the region. A more substantial cold front will enter the area on Thursday and be southeast of the region by Thursday night as a strong longwave trough develops across the eastern U.S. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will trend slightly cooler each day. However, readings will still average about five degrees above normal for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday with lows both of those days close to ten degrees above normal. Thursday will be slightly cooler with highs around normal and lows about five degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Sunday... Models continue to advertise a much sharper upper level long wave trough developing from Ontario Canada to the Mid Atlantic by the end of the week. A transition to a cooler drier airmass expected by Friday. In spite of the cooling and drying progged for our CWA, the tropics are forecast to be busy, with potential impacts to Florida and nearby states. The upper trough which sets up over the eastern US will likely play a large role in steering the near CONUS tropical systems during this period. Please refer to The National Hurricane Center for the latest information (WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV). && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 124 PM EDT Monday... Surface high pressure situated from the Ohio Valley into the Mid- Atlantic will remain in place this afternoon into tonight. The combination of heating and low level convergence will generate isolated to scattered MVFR convection, mainly in the northwest portion of forecast area. The taf site with the best chance for convection is KLWB. Any convection that develops will tape off quickly this evening into tonight. Light winds with low level moisture will create areas of low clouds and fog tonight into Tuesday morning. VLIFR conditions are possible at KLWB. While the valley like KBCB may see MVFR fog. Morning fog will burn off by 14z with VFR expected at all sites Tuesday morning. Isolated diurnally driven MVFR convection will be possible Tuesday afternoon. Coverage will be limited in duration and area, thus holding off on mention at taf sites. Medium confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during the taf period. Extended aviation discussion... Another front will move into the region Wednesday into Thursday with a better chance for MVFR/IFR showers/thunderstorms, followed by cooler and drier air for Friday. Most of the period looks VFR at this point, outside of the usual late night/early morning fog/low clouds. At this time, it does not appear that any tropical systems will impact the county warning area.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP NEAR TERM...KK/WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...KK/WP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.