Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 231354 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 954 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 953 AM EDT SATURDAY... EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE REGION BUT SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALSO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BLUE RIDGE TO FORM SOME HIGH BASED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED WARMING ALOFT SUPPORT THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPS FORECAST OF GENERALLY UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WEST OF THE RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 70S EAST. PREVIOUS AFD... THIS MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DUE TO THE BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY... CANT ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED WITH REGARD TO THE BARBECUE. NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR LATE MAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES INTO A 590+ DM RIDGE AND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST ALSO BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION AND STORMINESS FROM WHERE IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS NOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY REACHING THE MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN CONVERGENCE EFFECTS AS MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DRAWN EASTWARD. TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT POPS ONLY RISE INTO 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EDGING SLOWLY EASTWARD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY... SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90. THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION. FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY... VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY TODAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO OUR WEST ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR REPORTS. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CIGS/VSBYS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID- AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NOT AFFECTING AVATION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING BUT SHIFTING TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY EVENING. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS/PC SHORT TERM...DS/PC LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...PC/RAB

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