Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 030242 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1042 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A DEVELOPING WEDGE OF COOL AIR WILL KEEP PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...AND STORMS GOING INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 1030 PM EDT TUESDAY... STORMS HAVE ENDED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND THE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT PER LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS DECREASING...THE RAIN AREA OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE NC PIEDMONT WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT PROVIDING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THAT REGION. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT LINGERING SHOWERS OR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE WEST PER FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS MEANDERING OVER THE EASTERN TN VLY. A COOL NORTHEAST WIND WILL OVERTAKE MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE COOL AIR RUNS UNDERNEATH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS WHICH WILL LEAVE US WITH CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. THE UPPER LOW OVER TN HEADS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY...THE COOL WEDGE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS GETTING REINFORCED BY THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES NOT EXPERIENCING MUCH OF A RISE. THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...BUT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY. BEST CHC FOR STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST...IN ADDITION TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LOW...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PERMIT DEEP CONVECTION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY... A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY...A PATH THAT TAKES IT DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WHILE ITS AXIS IS WEST OVER OVER THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WEDGE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS STABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITHIN THIS AREA...AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ADDING INCREASE LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS DESPITE THE STABLE LOW LEVELS. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT TO OFF THE COAST. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE AREA WILL STILL BE IN A REGIME SUITABLE FOR CONVECTION THAT WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE. ALSO...WHILE THERE ARE TIMING VARIATIONS AMONG THE MODELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED EITHER REACHING OR STILL SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH ISOLATED EAST. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND MILDER EACH DAY. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY... DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH OR CLOSER TO THE REGION. EACH DAY...DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COVERAGE WILL BE ENHANCED...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS INCREASED. SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE THE TIMES WHEN SUCH ENHANCEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY MILDER EACH DAY SO THAT BY TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 1000 PM EDT TUESDAY... LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF DANVILLE. A COOL NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WIND HAS DEVELOPED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THIS WILL PROMOTE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS. THIS STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEK (THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY) RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CIGS (MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR) AND OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER CLOUD BASES...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS IN ADDITION TO LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING FOG.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/WP NEAR TERM...PM/WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...PM

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