Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 312021 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 421 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL STALL FRONT HE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 415 PM EDT SUNDAY... LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. COMBINATION OF ENOUGH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL SUNSET. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT BUT MAY NOT COMPLETELY DRY UP OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE ENTERING WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT EXPECTING BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLOSES OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND ON THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...MODELS SLOWER EDGING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTHEAST. NOW LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COUNTY WARNING AREA WELL WITHIN THE AXIS OF BEST LIFT BY TUESDAY. THE WAVY SURFACE FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN LESS HEATING AND LESS INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND LESS COOLING AT NIGHT. BIGGEST THREAT DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE PERIODS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1155 AM EDT SATURDAY... EVEN WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE...CONSENSUS IN HAS THE CLOSED LOW IS A FAVORABLE POSITION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LESS CERTAIN HOW MUCH OF A SURFACE REFLECTION THERE WILL BE OF THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WPC WAS FORECASTING A WEAK LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS SUGGEST IS IT POSSIBLE FOR A SHALLOW SURFACE HIGH TO BE WEDGES IN OVER THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COASTAL FRONT HELPING ENHANCE THE WEDGE. OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA STAYS WET THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY... HAVE FOUR MAIN SECTIONS OF THE TAFS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALREADY HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED WHEN STORMS GET MUCH CLOSER TO APPROACHING A PARTICULAR AIRPORT...OTHERWISE COVERAGE IS INTO ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANYTHING BY VCTS/VCSH IN THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z/8PM. MOST LIKELY AIRPORTS TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND THE ASSOCIATED MVFR VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE KBCB AND KROA. WITH LOSS OF HEATING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL HAVE BEEN ENOUGH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR PATCHY FOG. EXPECT FOG ALONG THE NEW RIVER UPSTREAM OF KBCB AND ON THE GREENBRIER RIVER IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING. HAVE ADDED LIFR FOG IN AT KLWB AND MVFR FOG IN FOR KBCB LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOWED KDAN AGAIN WITH AN MVFR CEILINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY RESULTING IN EVEN HIGHER THREAT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...WITH THE THREAT PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY SINKS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF SUB- VFR INTO TUESDAY WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS BY DAY...AND IN PATCHY FOG EARLY MORNING FOG. MODELS TRENDS IN STALLING THE FRONT NEAR THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK SUGGESTS LESS DRYING WITH CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS INTO THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF EASTERLY FLOW AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...AMS/JH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.