Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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873 FXUS61 KRNK 221907 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 307 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure over the eastern United States will continue to bring warm and dry weather to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through the weekend and into the first part of next week.
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As of 300 PM EDT Friday... No change in the general synoptic pattern as a large ridge of high pressure dominates the eastern US while tropical systems over the Atlantic remain too far offshore to impact our weather. Combination of diurnal instability, orographic effects, and some weak short wave energy will keep a chance/slight chance for showers/storms in the forecast from the southern Blue Ridge and portions of the NRV south into the mountains of NC. Any precipitation will fade quickly by early this evening with dry conditions for the overnight period. Expect another round of patchy fog/stratus development primarily west of the Blue Ridge. Any fog/low clouds will burn off early Saturday, followed by pleasant weather for the start of the weekend. Temperatures will be similar to previous days. Expect lows tonight in the lower 60s east of the Blue Ridge with mid 50s/around 60 to the west and some cooler readings in the valleys. Highs Saturday will be in the mid/upper 80s east to lower 80s west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM EDT Friday... A Rather quiet weather pattern through this period, with high pressure firmly in place near the mason dixon line, and continuing to build South along the central appalachians. Hurricane Maria is expected to drift North off of the southeast US coast, but likely remain far enough out to sea to limit impacts in our area through Monday. This setup would allow mostly sunny and dry conditions to remain in place. High Temperatures should remain steadily 5 to 10 degrees above normal during the period, topping out in the mid to upper 80s east of the Blue Ridge, with upper 70s and low 80s prevalent across the higher elevations. Low temperatures would fall into the 50s and 60s, with patchy fog possible each morning, especially in the mountain valleys. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Friday... High pressure will begin to progress north and east into the New England states by Tuesday, as Maria begins to slow and wobble off of the Mid Atlantic Seaboard. This will allow surface winds to shift to out of the East/Northeast, allowing low level atlantic moisture to build across the area Wednesday and Thursday. With subsidence still in place, don`t expect much in the way of shower activity, but cloud cover as a whole should increase, especially for those East of the Blue Ridge. A Persistence forecast trend in temperatures will continue through this time period. A cold front approaches from the north and west on Thursday, bringing the possibility of isolated to scattered showers across the area. Timing of the front, at least in the eyes of the GFS, doesn`t look favorable for significant shower coverage or intensity, but it should be enough to push the remnants of Maria far enough off shore to break us free from the easterly flow. Drier and more seasonable conditions should follow the front, and continue into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Friday... No change in the general synoptic pattern as a large ridge of high pressure dominates the eastern US while tropical systems over the Atlantic remain too far offshore to impact our weather. Any convective precipitation will be sliding further to the south and is not expected to impact any TAF sites but will include VCSH at KBCB at issuance for the isolated showers moving through the NRV. The result will be VFR flight conditions through the period with some nocturnal fog/stratus development primarily expected to affect locations west of the Blue Ridge. There are some indications that lower dew points will start working in from the north and may limit fog development at KLWB, but will defer to climatology and indicate a tempo for IFR toward daybreak. Extended Aviation Discussion... Overall persistence forecast to prevail this weekend into early next week as strong high pressure aloft builds in from the northwest keeping tropical moisture offshore. This should also maintain good flying conditions along with mostly dry weather, outside of any late night/early morning fog from Saturday through Tuesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...MBS/AMS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.