Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 270606 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 106 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 950 PM EST WEDNESDAY... AN AREA OF MAINLY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SHORT-WAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP TO AROUND 2 AM IN THE WEST AND TRANSITING MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL GOES INTO EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY BE HARD TO REACH THE 4-INCH AMOUNTS AT LEAST AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST PEOPLE LIVE...MORE LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES SEEMS PROBABLE. TEMPS WILL BE EXTREMELY MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATING && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY... UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION. EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 100 AM EST THURSDAY... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...TRAVELING EAST. THE LOW IS BRINGING WITH IT BANDS A LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VARIABLE... RANGING FROM IFR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS DEVELOPING WHERE CEILINGS SCATTER...MAKING MOST OF THE REGION LOW MVFR/IFR AS A NET RESULT. POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS SNOW BANDS PASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN THE WARMER AIR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ONCE THE LOW PASSES EAST LATE THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST GUSTING 15KT TO 25KT... TOPPING 30KT AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ROA/LYH/DAN...HOWEVER THE TRANSITION TO VFR WILL BE MORE GRADUAL FOR BLF/BCB/LWB...TAKING UNTIL LATE EVENING. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY... VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009- 015. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS/PC SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...NF/PC HYDROLOGY...PC EQUIPMENT...AMS

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