Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 020132 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 932 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STALL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEDGES SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 900 PM EDT MONDAY... STORMS HAVE ENDED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND THE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY FADE BY MIDNIGHT PER LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS DECREASING...STILL CAN`T RULE OUT LINGERING SHOWERS OR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE LATE NIGHT PER FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS STILL OVER THE REGION. ANY CLEARING WILL ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG. SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY THOUGH THE ENERGY ALOFT TO MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST TO ALLOW FOR MORE RAIN IN THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS... BUT STILL WEST WILL SEE GOOD COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND TO KEEP INSTABILITY LIMITED THOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS MAY ENHANCE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL BE ELEVATED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WITH HIGHS CUT BACK TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 70S WEST...TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY... DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW. THIS LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE MADE PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND OPENED UP INTO MORE OF AN UPPER TROUGH FEATURE. ALONG THE LOW/TROUGH AXIS AND ON ITS EASTERN FLANKS...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE PLENTIFUL...WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE....A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HEAD SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY...GENERATING A LATE SPRINGTIME WEDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS STABLE WITHIN THIS AREA...LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IN THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FEATURE WILL HAVE MADE THE GREATEST INROADS INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD...AND CONVECTION BECOMES ENHANCED BY THE STEEP LAPSE RATE OF THE CORRESPONDING COLD POOL ALOFT...DESPITE RELATIVE STABILITY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A REGIME PRONE TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST OF THE COAST. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WE EXPECT ANOTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 900 PM EDT MONDAY... BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST FROM SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH TOOK PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND DAYBREAK. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY PER UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS...ESP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEK (THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY) RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CIGS (MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR) AND OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER CLOUD BASES...HOWEVERE...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS IN ADDITION TO LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING FOG. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/WP NEAR TERM...PM/WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...PM

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