Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 181814 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 214 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will stay situated off the southeast coast through Wednesday. A cold front enters the area from the northwest Thursday into Friday, followed by cooler high pressure for Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 258 AM EDT Monday... Models in agreement in the upper and surface pattern today into tonight, with increasing heights. Should see more of a gradient in the sfc pressure so winds may be a little bit higher today, mainly in the higher terrain, where some gusts could exceed 20 mph. Warmer with near record highs possible...see climate section below. Skies should be mostly sunny though again some cumulus forms in the heating of the day over the mountains. Highs will range from the upper 70s in the cooler mountain locations, with most averaging in the lower to mid 80s. Tonight, the cold front to our northwest will advance as far southeast as western PA to Western KY. We will stay mostly clear however, with fog overnight again in the river valleys. Continued southwest flow in the low levels to keep temps elevated with increased dewpoints. Lows will range from the lower to mid 50s in the mountain valleys to upper 50s to around 60 elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... High pressure will remain along the Southeast coast of the United States into Thursday. Southwest flow will continue the unseasonably warm temperatures Wednesday. Record highs are possible Wednesday afternoon with readings from the lower 70s in the northwest Mountains to the mid 80s in the Piedmont under plenty of sunshine. Please refer to climate sections for more details. It will be mild Wednesday night with lows from the mid 50s in the west to lower 60s in the East under mostly clear skies. A high amplitude trof will deepen from the northern plains to the Mississippi Valley by Thursday night. Model differences continue in the timing of the upper trough and the degree of amplification. The 12z UKMET was the fastest. ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLES are faster than 00Z NAM/GFS which were slower and more amplified with the upper trough progression. Leaned the forecast towards the more progressive feature with blend shaded to HPC. High pressure will slide east Thursday into the Atlantic. A cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday. Temperatures will continue to be well above normal Thursday, but with low level winds backing in advance of the approaching trof and an increase in high clouds. High temperatures Thursday will range from the lower 70s in the west to the lower 80s in the east. Delayed the arrival of pops on Thursday because showers will be fighting an abundance of dry air between 700-400 mb. By late Thursday into Thursday night, several weak shortwaves combine with increasing PW values in advance of the approaching trof in the deep southwest flow to generate some scattered showers especially in the Northwest. Low temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning will generally be in the 50s. A few readings may be near 60 in Piedmont. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... A strong cold front will move east Friday and push off into the Atlantic ocean Friday night. Model timing differences with cold front and its associated moisture continue into Friday. Leaned toward the more progressive solutions of WPC ensemble mean for Friday into Friday night. Northwest winds will generate some upslope showers into the first half of the weekend. Breezy and much cooler conditions will be found for the weekend, and as the upper flow becomes more zonal early next week, temperatures will moderate Sunday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday... High pressure was off the southeast coast today. Winds will out of the southwest this afternoon with gusts as high as 25 knots at higher elevations. Winds lighten and decouple tonight as a good surface based inversion forms after sunset. Models keep surface dew points in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Fog will develop in the western valleys again tonight. Medium confidence of the timing of the fog. For now have KLWB becoming LIFR between 06-08z and KBCB lowering around 08Z. Similar to the past few mornings, any fog and stratus will mix out around 13Z/9AM. A front tracks closer to the area on Wednesday with some discrepancy on how much cloud cover moves in. Expecting to see increasing mid and high clouds in the afternoon as the front get closer. Extended aviation discussion... Through Thursday morning, VFR conditions are expected during the daylight hours, with redevelopment overnight of river and mountain valley fog and associated IFR to LIFR stratus layers/ceilings. Fog will be more widespread each night as the week progresses due to rising surface dew points and increasing low level moisture, however increasing winds and mid/high cloud cover may decrease fog development somewhat Thu morning compared to Wed morning. A cold front is expected to move through the region Thursday night into early Friday. Expect the initial onset of scattered showers across western sections by Thursday afternoon. A southwest to northwest wind shift is expected to occur Thursday night across the region with gusty winds behind the front continuing into Friday night and possibly Saturday. Areas of sub-VFR conditions will likely accompany the front and precipitation associated with it. A return to VFR conditions is expected for most areas Friday night into Saturday. The exception will be western parts of the region where a healthy northwest upslope flow, and lingering low level moisture, will prolong an IFR/MVFR ceiling during this time period. Even the mountain areas will become VFR again on Sunday.
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&& .CLIMATE... As of 314 AM EDT Tuesday... No records were set Monday October 17th. Today, Blacksburg, Bluefield and Danville are forecast to tie or break their records for Oct 18th. Record maximum temperatures through Thursday, Oct 20. Oct 18 Location Record Max Bluefield.....79 in 2007 Danville......86 in 2007 Lynchburg.....91 in 1938 Roanoke.......91 in 1938 Blacksburg....80 in 1953 Oct 19 Location Record Max Bluefield.....81 in 1984 Danville......85 in 1953 Lynchburg.....88 in 1938 Roanoke.......91 in 1938 Blacksburg....80 in 1991 Oct 20 Location Record Max Bluefield.....79 in 1993 Danville......88 in 1984 Lynchburg.....85 in 1993 Roanoke.......84 in 2005 Blacksburg....82 in 1985 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK/PH AVIATION...AMS/WP CLIMATE...AMS/WP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.