Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 310615 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 215 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AND KEEP US IN A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN...MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 1003 PM EDT SUNDAY... TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS EXIST...ONE OVER FAR SW VA/NE TN...AND THE OTHER OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. MESOANALYSIS INDICATED BEST DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND NEAR CHARLOTTE NC. HIGH-RES MODELS AND LATEST NAM SHOW HIGHER POPS NEEDED FOR OUR SRN CWA LATE TONIGHT. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER WRN NC. THERE IS YET ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. THESE WAVES MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NC AND SOUTHERN VA BY DAWN. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TO THE WEST. HIGHS TOMORROW LOOK TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WEST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY... EXPECTING 500 MB RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL PIECES OF ENERGY BUT THESE WILL BE WEAK AND DO NOT APPEAR ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ANY DECENT LIFT FOR THE REGION. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE THERE MAY BE WEAK SURFACE TROFS IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND NO CHANGE OF AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. COMBINATION OF MAV AND MOS GUIDANCE WAS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THIS TIME FRAME. MONDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY PULLING OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING US IN A MOIST AND WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD HELP GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY... MODELS SHOW A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 594 DM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY. CHALLENGING TO TRACK ANY SUBTLE SHORT WAVES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE THAT MAY IMPACT THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE +16 TO +20 RANGE BY SUNDAY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 205 AM EDT MONDAY... RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN PASSING NORTH ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...FALLING OUT OF CEILINGS WITH BASES AT 6KFT AND UP. LIGHT OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST...POSSIBLY WITH HIGH END MVFR ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TOWARD DAWN. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL MAINLY OCCUR IN ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN...BUT EXPECT THEY WILL BE FEW. WITH CLOUD COVER SO WIDESPREAD...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN VERY LIGHT MIST ACROSS THE REGION...HOLDING VISIBILITIES 5SM AND UP. MODELS FAVORING LOWERING CEILINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AFTER DAWN MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. TAF FORECAST FOR DANVILLE REFLECTS THIS THINKING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY OTHER TAF SITES WILL FALL BE AFFECTED. CEILINGS AT DANVILLE WILL IMPROVE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BASES AREAWIDE RANGING FROM 4KFT TO 6KFT. ADDITIONAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE AROUND SUNSET. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 700 AM EDT SUNDAY... THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...NF/WP EQUIPMENT...

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