Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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278 FXUS61 KRNK 201130 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 630 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Lower Mississippi valley will move east and off the southeast coast tonight. A cold front will move through the eastern United States Tuesday night, followed by high pressure on Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front will cross the region this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 210 AM EDT Monday... Upper trough and colder air aloft over the northeast United States move east today. 500 mb pattern over the Mid Atlantic region gradually becomes southwest ahead of the next northern stream trough. Colder air at 850MB is retreating too. by Tuesday morning 850MB temperatures will be in the +6 to +8 range over southeast West Virginia, southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina. At the surface high pressure moves from the Tennessee Valley to off the Carolina coast by this evening. Expect the high to be far enough offshore tonight that winds will slowly increase from the southwest over the ridges overnight. Even surface winds in the foothills and piedmont may not decouple. Clouds and moisture along the western slopes all below 850MB. Model show clearing before 9AM then little to no clouds for the rest of the day and tonight. Will be staying close to National Blend and bias corrected MAV for highs today and lows tonight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 PM EST Monday... Shortwave ridging will slowly weaken Tuesday as surface high pressure slides offshore in advance of both northern/southern stream shortwaves within the split flow regime. These features still remain just out of phase with only a couple solutions pulling enough moisture north for showers Tuesday night as the southern surface low passes off the Carolinas. Since the latest ensembles show a few showers both across the east, and also northwest with the northern piece of energy will keep in some low pops in spots Tuesday night. High pressure following these systems to bring drier weather including a quick punch of cooler air on brief gusty winds Wednesday before the gradient diminishes by Wednesday night. We will see another short wave trough track a disturbance off the Carolina coast Thursday and Thursday night. Rain with this system will remain along the coast with only an increase in high clouds for the area. Highs mid 50s to lower 60 Tuesday before cooling back to 40s mountains and 50s east per cool advection Wednesday and Thursday. Cold air slow to come in Tuesday night with most areas staying above freezing (mid 30s to lower 40s). Temperatures fall into the 20s across the mountains and 30s east Wednesday and Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Sunday... Overall upper troffiness to prevail through the period with reinforcing energy arriving next week that looks to carve out an even deeper 500 mb cold pool. Will see low pressure develop offshore the Carolinas later on Thanksgiving within split upper flow early on but appears too far offshore for any showers at this point. Otherwise should see mainly dry weather under weak high pressure and overall below seasonal temps until a strong cold front arrives Saturday. This front will again be followed by colder temperatures next Sunday similar to this weekend. Appears a few western rain showers possible ahead of the front Saturday night, followed by western snow showers early Sunday, but little more than low pops for now. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 625 AM EST Monday... MVFR clouds on the west slopes of the Appalachians were rapidly eroding this morning. High confidence of VFR conditions across southeast West Virginia, southwest Virginia, and northwest North Carolina today and tonight. Winds will be from the west today as high pressure moves through the Tennessee Valley and off the southeast coast. Return flow around the high late tonight will produce an increasing southwest low level jet. The highest elevations may have gusts up to 25 knots. Extended Discussion... Mainly VFR conditions are expected Tuesday into Friday. Exceptions would be some lower cigs with a front/trough Tue night-Wed in the mountains, and again Thanksgiving. With the flow aloft mainly northwest, no appreciable amounts of moisture or precipitation are expected through the week.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...AMS/RAB

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