Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 131811 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 211 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 1220 PM EDT SUNDAY... FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE RUNNING WARMER IN THE EAST AS LYH HAS ALREADY JUMPED TO 79 DEGREES. HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S EAST AND PORTIONS OF THE WIDER VALLEYS IN THE WEST...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND HIGHER RIDGES OF THE NW CWA. ASIDE FROM CIRRUS...SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... FORECAST AREA STAYS IN MILD AIR MASS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEEPENS BY LATE TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS BRING CLOUDS ON OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING A LOW LAYER OF CLOUDS AGAINST THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN BUT HAVE KEPT IN PATCHY DRIZZLE. WILL START MONDAY OFF WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...THANKS TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWING GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION DURING THE DAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BELIEVE THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY...ON AND OFF ACTIVITY WHERE MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVE AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF RAINFALL...BUT ONLY OCCASIONALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE WHERE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 205 PM EDT SUNDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING AND WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING...SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION ARE THREE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. FIRST...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...AS WELL AS THE GRADIENT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEVERAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A 55+KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...EXPECT THAT THE STRONGER SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DRAWING THESE WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE SWODY3 PLACED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE UP TO 10 MB...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS SPEED ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. SECOND...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST ARE...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND HIGHER RIDGES. A LONGER DURATION OF HEAVIER RAIN WOULD NOT BE A FLOODING PROBLEM WITH SPRING PLANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...MAY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES...SOMETHING THAT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. USED A NON-DIURNAL CURVE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF QUICKLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 8 DEGREES PER HOUR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER PASSAGE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGER MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY SUNSET. ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE WITH WARM GROUND. SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WEDGING AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST OR A LIGHT FREEZE IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE FOR POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECENS MEAN WITH HANDLING THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ITS MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND CLOSER TO NORMAL.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 135 PM EDT SUNDAY... VFR WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AT MOST SITES. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. TONIGHT...MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT MOST SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE WV/VA BORDER SO HAVE MVFR IN AT BCB/ROA/LYH/DAN. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS AND DRIZZLE EXISTS AS WELL ESPECIALLY AT BCB/ROA BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER THIS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE MVFR BY MID-LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON PLUS INCREASED THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA. LOOKS WET INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST STAYING BELOW VFR MONDAY EVENING THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ACT TO KEEP MVFR CIGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NW. && .CLIMATE... WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECORDS AT OUR MOUNTAIN CLIMATE SITES TODAY APRIL 13. THE ROA/LYH/DAN RECORDS ARE OUT OF REACH...SO WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS SECTION. STATION RECORD/YEAR/RECORDS BEGAN FORECAST HIGH APR 13TH BLACKSBURG 80/1977/1952 78 BLUEFIELD 81/1977/1959 80 LEWISBURG 79/1977/1973 78 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP NEAR TERM...AMS/CF/WP SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP CLIMATE...WP

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