Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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842 FXUS61 KRNK 181145 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 745 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area through the weekend. A deepening upper-level trough and cold front will approach the region from the west early next week. Rain is not expected before early next week while temperatures will trend a bit warmer into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday... Dry, high pressure will remain over the area through the period. The center of the large high pressure area will drift slightly eastward through the period and will be aligned near the Blue Ridge by Thursday morning. Other than a few passing cirrus from time-to-time, expect mostly clear skies. Starting out this morning a few degrees warmer than Tuesday morning and 850mb temps will warm into the +10C to +12C range by late today. This should allow maximum temperatures to be on the order of 5-6 degrees warmer than they were Tuesday. By the same token morning low temperatures Thursday will also be a few degrees warmer as well. Burkes Garden and Lewisburg should be among the few spots able to make it to or below the freezing mark Thursday morning. Frost should be less widespread as well and generally only patchy frost is indicated in the grids at this time with no headline. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday... High pressure will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic region through Friday. There is a weak dry front that will pass north of the area Thursday, but hardly worth mentioning aside from a subtle wind shift. The dominant feature will continue to be the dome of high pressure and its persistence, with strong subsidence and dry air resulting in large nocturnal/diurnal temperature swings. High temperatures will favor the warmer side of normal by +4 to +8 degrees, with highs in the 70s. Lows will be close to the seasonal norm with readings in the lower to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday... Amplified upper ridge over the Southeast will continue dry and warm weather heading into the weekend. Saturday night into Sunday, the ridge axis begins to move east as the trough deepens into the middle of the country. The trough axis will move into the Ohio Valley Monday and rotate eastward into Tuesday. The trough axis should be located along the coast by Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF continue to disagree on the depth and strength of trough and where to close off a southern low. Despite the fact that the location is different, both solutions show a low closing off, upper flow turning more southwest, and an influx of moisture. This should result in an increasing chance of showers early next week. Temperatures staying above normal through Sunday, then a cooling trend expected Monday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 745 AM EDT Wednesday... A large, very dry high pressure area will remain over the region through the valid period drifting ever so slowly east by Thursday. GOES-16 clearly shows river valley fog west of the Blue Ridge, but as far as the ASOSs/TAF sites are concerned, BCB is the only one actually reporting restrictions to visibility. At any rate, this fog will dissipate quickly by 13Z leaving just FEW- SCT250 through the day. MVFR to IFR fog will again be possible early Thursday, and perhaps LYH may see some then as well. Otherwise, not expecting any restrictions to ceilings or visibilities through the period with mostly SKC. Winds will be mostly light southeast 3-5kts during the daytime and light and variable or calm at night. Extended Aviation Discussion... High pressure will remain over the region through Sunday with generally VFR conditions expected, outside the usual late night/early morning patchy river and mountain valley fog.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ007-009>020- 022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059. NC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ001>004- 018>020. WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ042>044-507- 508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAB NEAR TERM...RAB SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...KK/PM AVIATION...RAB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.