Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 141740 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 140 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SE TX WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 105 PM EDT MONDAY... UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR APPEARS TO HANDLE THINGS WELL IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS MEANS LESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...THEN SHOWERS INCREASE BY AFTER 3-5PM AHEAD OF VORT OVER NRN GA EARLY. THUNDER SITUATION STILL MARGINAL BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS FOR ISOLATED THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST CWA. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... CUT HIGH TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS PER LACK OF SUN AND SHOWERS MOVING IN. MUCH BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AFTER 00Z/8PM THIS EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK...ADDING THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE STRONG FORCING. LARGEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONT DOES NOT REACH THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 12Z/8AM. STAYED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEREFORE WILL HAVE SEVERAL THINGS TO KEEP AN EYE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SOUTHWESTERLY 55KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL...RESULTING IN MAINLY HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER AS THE FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER...WITH THE JET BLOWING JUST OFF THE SURFACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWER ACTIVITY DRAW THE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND LEVEL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES... RESULTING IN A ROUGHLY 10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH ALMOST MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS FOUND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY SOUTH OF ROANOKE. THESE GUSTS...WHEN COMBINED WITH PROLONGED RAINFALL...WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN A FEW TREES...AND RESULT IN LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH A STORM TOTAL AMOUNT OF OVER AN INCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MAY SEE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES DEVELOP WHERE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN PASS REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. RAINFALL MAY ALSO PUSH SOME RIVERS TO BANKFULL OR MINOR FLOOD LATER IN THE WEEK. FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET AT A RATE OF 6 TO 9 DEGREES PER HOUR. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH FREEZING FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY EARLY EVENING...ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WHILE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT ACROSS MANY AREAS...MAY SEE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATE ALONG OUR MORE PROMINENT WEST FACING SLOPES BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS END OFF SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NEXT WE GET TO DEAL WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT ANY PLANTS THAT MAY BE KILLED BY FREEZING TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL KEEP COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL WARM UP WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPCGUIDE FOR POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECENS MEAN WITH HANDLING THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ITS MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY... VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SINK TO MVFR THEN IFR THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS. VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD DROP TO HIGH END IFR/LOW END MVFR. A TSRA IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE/THREAT OVERALL TO HAVE IN TAFS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WEST AND FINALLY EXIT EAST OF THE MTNS BY 15Z TUESDAY...AND OUT EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE MODERATE SHOWERS AND AT TIMES HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. ON AVERAGE VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE IN IFR/MVFR. ONCE FRONT PASSES THE BLF AREA SHOULD SEE LOWER CIGS UPSLOPE EFFECT...AND INTO LWB AS WELL WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTING CIGS BELOW 5H FEET. EXPECT RAINS AND SOME THUNDER TO LINGER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO TUESDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN FAST IN THE MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY EVENING WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SMALL WINDOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAY SEE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY KEEPING MVFR CIGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. VFR THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NW. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS SLOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE DAY FOR NOW.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP NEAR TERM...AMS/WP SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...WP

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