Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 260101 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 901 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to extend into the area from the west tonight through Monday. A fast moving, moisture limited, disturbance will cross the region from the northwest on Tuesday. Cool and dry weather is expected mid- week before heat and humidity, along with daily rounds of showers and storms return for Friday into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 850 PM EDT Sunday... Much drier air, with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s, still remains just northwest of the piedmont this evening where some moisture lingers roughly along and south of a MTV-DAN line this evening. However as a passing mid level wave/speed max crosses to the north overnight, should see drier air filter southeast in its wake, with the lingering mid/high cloud shield also shifting southeast of the region. This in conjunction with high pressure nosing in from the west should make for mainly clear skies and comfortable temperatures overnight. Still appears lows to settle out mostly in the 50s, except around 60 southeast, and in the 40s across the deepest mountain valleys pending any patchy fog formation late. Previous discussion as of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Our region was sandwiched between a cold front near the coast of the Carolinas, and a cold front that extended from western New York, southwest into southern Indiana. Dew points continue to trend lower in the wake of yesterday`s cold front. Readings in the middle 40s were common across far western sections with the upper 50s across the far southeast. Bands of semi-opaque cirrus continue to stream northeast across central and eastern parts of the area. This trend will continue into early this evening, but coverage should be on the decrease as the evening progresses as the jet responsible shifts eastward. Winds overnight will trend to the light or calm side. With good radiational cooling, low temperatures around five degrees below normal are forecast. Anticipate low to mid 50s across the mountains, with some deeper valleys and higher elevations in the upper 40s. Across the Piedmont mid to upper 50s are expected. On Monday, dry weather will continue along with below normal temperatures. Expect high temperatures to range from the low to mid 70s across the mountains with readings around 80s to the lower 80s across the Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Models in decent agreement this period. Shortwave enters the picture late Monday night/Tuesday and is similar to what we get in winter months. Lack of good return moisture flow ahead of this will limit the amount of showers, as well as lack of strong sfc support. Anticipate mainly isolated to scattered showers, maybe a storm or two, especially in the mountains. Dry air returns Tuesday night-Wednesday night, with sfc high overhead. Still temps this period below normal with comfortable dewpoints. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Trough lifts out and 5h ridge works in ahead of the next upstream trough over the northern tier of the U.S. Will see return flow around southeast high with temps/dewpoints returning to typical late June/early July numbers. Also with differential heating and some weak upper impulse should expect to see more storms Friday-and as front across the midwest edges closer to the Ohio Valley, should see a better chance into the weekend especially over the mountains. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 650 PM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions are expected for the most of the valid TAF period through late Monday with some increase in mid clouds on top of scattered cumulus by Monday afternoon. The exception may be some isolated to patchy river or valley MVFR fog very late tonight into early Monday morning. However given current low dewpoints over the mountains, and forecast overnight drying across the southeast, wont include any fog mention for now. Extended Aviation Discussion... A weak disturbance dropping in from the northwest may bring a period of MVFR cigs along with a few showers to the mountains late Monday night into Tuesday. Otherwise expecting overall VFR for Monday through Thursday with some brief late night/early morning mountain and river valley fog possible. On Friday, the potential will increase for some brief, localized sub-VFR conditions mainly over the mountains as shower and thunderstorm chances increase. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/JH NEAR TERM...DS/JH SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...DS/JH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.