Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 181856 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 256 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A large area of high pressure will remain over the eastern part of the country before slowly sliding off the coast. This will bring us pleasant fall weather through the weekend. Our chances for rain will then start to increase on Monday as a strong cold front approaches from the west.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday... More pleasant fall weather is on tap through tomorrow as a large area of high pressure remains in place across the eastern US. Temperatures tonight will be a bit warmer than last night with mid/upper 30s east of the Blue Ridge, low/mid 30s west with cooler readings in the valleys and some patchy frost and fog once again. Lots of sun with some high clouds for Thursday with highs in the middle 70s east to upper 60s/lower 70s west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday... High pressure will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic region through Friday. There is a weak dry front that will pass north of the area Thursday, but hardly worth mentioning aside from a subtle wind shift. The dominant feature will continue to be the dome of high pressure and its persistence, with strong subsidence and dry air resulting in large nocturnal/diurnal temperature swings. High temperatures will favor the warmer side of normal by +4 to +8 degrees, with highs in the 70s. Lows will be close to the seasonal norm with readings in the lower to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday... Amplified upper ridge over the Southeast will continue dry and warm weather heading into the weekend. Saturday night into Sunday, the ridge axis begins to move east as the trough deepens into the middle of the country. The trough axis will move into the Ohio Valley Monday and rotate eastward into Tuesday. The trough axis should be located along the coast by Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF continue to disagree on the depth and strength of trough and where to close off a southern low. Despite the fact that the location is different, both solutions show a low closing off, upper flow turning more southwest, and an influx of moisture. This should result in an increasing chance of showers early next week. Temperatures staying above normal through Sunday, then a cooling trend expected Monday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday... High pressure will remain in control of our weather this TAF period with VFR flight conditions expected, with the exception of IFR conditions in nocturnal fog/stratus developing in the valleys. Expect KBCB and KLWB are most likely sites for IFR conditions, but based on last night will only use a tempo around daybreak at KBCB and leave it out of KLWB. Winds will be light. Extended Aviation Discussion... High pressure will remain over the region through Sunday with generally VFR conditions expected, outside the usual late night/early morning patchy river and mountain valley fog. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...KK/PM AVIATION...MBS/RAB

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