Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 220549 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 149 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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AS OF 1045 PM EDT SUNDAY... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST...DEWPOINTS TAKING A NOTICEABLE PLUNGE...READINGS FALLING INTO THE 40S. THIS AIRMASS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLY COOLER FEELING TO THE AIR STARTING MONDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A GENERAL CLEARING TO AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LINGERING CLOUDINESS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL ERODE MOUNTAIN CLOUDS RETURNING SUNSHINE. DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY. PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. 850 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY...ESP ALONG THE RIDGE CRESTS WHERE SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY... LOOKING AT A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS MON NIGHT-WED...WITH SFC HIGH SHIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL SET UP A CLASSIC WEDGE OVER OUR AREA...WHICH AT FIRST WILL BE CLEAR/SUNNY AND DRY/COOL. WED-WED NIGHT...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A CLOUDIER...WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND ATTM LEANING TOWARD A BLEND. THINK POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NE-E FLOW AT THE SFC TO DRAW IN THE SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE COOLER MORNING TO BE TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE SOME VALLEYS IN SE WV/FAR SW VA MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WHILE MOST WILL SEE 40S. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST. TEMPS MODIFY SOME WED NIGHT WITH 40S MOST PLACES...COOLER IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...THEN WARM AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA WHILE SE FLOW OUTSIDE THE WEDGE MAY ENHANCE TEMPS. WED NIGHT MODIFIES SOME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WHERE LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY... A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE STATES ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORMING ACROSS THE SE STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY... COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM VERMONT TO EASTERN VIRGINIA TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AT 05Z/1AM. SURFACE WIND WERE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF WHEN KLWB AND KBLF WILL DROP TO MVFR. BCB WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF VFR TO MVFR CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. KLWB...AND ESPECIALLY KBLF WILL SEE THE MVFR CIGS HANG IN MUCH OF THE DAY WITH UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO THE EAST. BCB SHOULD SEE CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 15Z/11AM- 17Z/1PM TIME FRAME. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KLWB AND KBLF WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 00Z. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND COOL AIR MASS DECOUPLES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF COAST MAY BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...KK/PM SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...CF AVIATION...AMS/RAB

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