Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 231846 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 146 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A strong cold front will slowly approach the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region from the west, as high pressure remains wedged down east of the mountains. This will keep temperatures generally well above normal with an increasing chance for showers through the weekend. The front will push through the area on Sunday and after some lingering showers on Monday, high pressure will build in with gradual improvement and cooler temperatures for the first part of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 145 PM EST Friday... Wedge is eroding along the periphery and as a consequence, temperatures range from the middle 70s well west of the Blue Ridge to the middle 40s in the piedmont. Expect the erosion to continue with the central portion of the wedge persisting through the afternoon. Starting to see some showers popping up in the west thanks to some shortwave energy and weak instability where heating has occurred. Expect the chance for a shower/possibly a rumble of thunder to extend just about up to the Blue Ridge by late in the day. The main frontal boundary will continue to reside off to our west, but weak synoptic forcing and some short wave energy will continue to stream over the region from the southwest with lingering effects of the wedge across the piedmont. Expect this will result in an increasing chance for showers overnight, followed by a good chance for showers/perhaps isolated thunder on Saturday enhanced by good isentropic lift. Expect temperatures to be a bit more uniform tonight and Saturday as the wedge loses some character, but we will remain well above normal for late February.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM EST Friday... The region will continue to be under the influence of a very unseasonably mild ridge of high pressure heading into the weekend. Anticipate temperatures to continue to average 20 to 25 degrees above normal. Showers are still forecast in advance of an approaching cold front within the unseasonably warm and moist air across the region. Chances will be greatest across southeast West Virginia and neighboring counties of southwest Virginia. Chances will decrease along an gradient heading southeast into eastern portions of the forecast area. This will change on Sunday. Anticipate the front to cross the area with all locations likely to have showers. Afternoon instability across the southeast parts of the area may yield some isolated thunderstorms coincident to the frontal passage. Sunday night into Monday, model guidance varies significantly. The GFS is robust in having the frontal boundary easily exit the forecast area with precipitation not an issue Sunday night through Monday night. Most of the other operational model offer solutions of a disturbance along the Gulf Coast riding northeast along the front, and thus stalling it, just south of the forecast area. The disturbance would then buckle the front north again Sunday night into Monday with showers impacting at least the southern half of the area, if not the entire area to some degree. Our forecast during the Sunday night into Monday time frame will reflect the impact of the disturbance, but also weigh in the null solution of the GFS with overall probability of perception no higher than 40 percent across the southeast sections of the region with values closer to 20 percent over southeast West Virginia. All guidance show the region clear of precipitation by Monday night with the disturbance to our northeast and northwest winds ushering the front southeast of the region. Temperatures behind the front will trend cooler, but still above normal for this time of year. Even the more progressive GFS solutions still has readings around 10 degrees above normal Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM EST Thursday... Models show high pressure overhead Monday night before sliding to the coast on Tuesday. This should bring somewhat cooler and drier weather into Tuesday night with highs in the 50s/low 60s, which remains a good 10 degrees or so above normal. Fast west/southwest flow aloft looks to bring pieces of upper energy out of the southwest states by Wednesday with a couple waves ahead of a parent mid level system that will eject out into the upper Midwest by Thursday. This should result in an axis of deeper moisture lifting back north through the TN valley by early Wednesday and into our region Wednesday afternoon/night as a warm front edges north. Moisture remains in place well ahead of the trailing cold front that will approach Thursday with at least added showers around. Thus running with decent chance to low likely pops for mid week at this point. Highs again mostly 50s/60s with cooler values mountains Wednesday, and warmer readings possible Thursday east well ahead of the cold front. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 120 PM EST Friday... A cool air wedge over the region will be eroding from the west and south this afternoon into the evening. Most locations will be mired in sub-VFR CATs to begin the TAF period with the wedge hanging on over LYH the longest. Areas of WV already seeing some improvement which should make its way to the NRV and eventually ROA this afternoon. DAN sits on the edge of the wedge and will likely see fluctuating conditions until finally improving near sunset. A stray shower or two and possibly a rumble of thunder may creep into the western portions of the forecast area, primarily effecting BLF and LWB. Overnight, enough low level moisture will still be in place to return conditions to at least MVFR in low cloud and fog, mainly for areas near and east of the Blue Ridge as showers approach from the west. Into tomorrow, conditions will become VFR at most locations. Showers then move into the west dropping conditions to MVFR within their vicinity. Winds will be light through the TAF period and will take on a more southerly component over the course of the TAF period. Medium confidence in cig/vis for areas inside the wedge with higher confidence for areas west. Fairly high confidence in forecast winds. Extended: VFR conditions should persist through the rest of Saturday into early Sunday morning for locations outside of any showery activity. During the day into the afternoon Sunday, showers become more widespread as a cold front crosses the region from the west. Sub-VFR conditions may well extend through Monday as the front stalls out to the south allowing for showers to linger in the region throughout the day. High pressure builds over the region Monday night into Tuesday which should bring drier conditions, at least temporarily.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Plethora of records yesterday. Please reference past Record Event Reports for details. Records still possible at Bluefield today, and within the realm of possibility at Blacksburg, pending erosion of the wedge. Friday 2/23/2018 Site MaxT/Year HiMin/Year BLF 74/1975 51/1975 DAN 73/2017 50/1981 LYH 74/1943 52/1925 ROA 76/1943 54/1925 RNK 69/1980 46/1990
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...JR/MBS CLIMATE...PM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.