Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 251341 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 941 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SECOND LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...WHICH WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 940 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL LEANED TO CANADIAN SOLUTION FOR CLOUDS TODAY. DECREASED CLOUD COVER WEST OF I77. CUT BACK POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON SFC OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. MAY RAISED HIGHS IN THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING. QUESTIONS THIS MORNING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS WEDGE AND POTENTIAL EROSION OF CAD IN THE EAST. WILL HOLD WITH CURRENT ISC GRIDS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND POPS...THEN ADJUSTED LATER THIS MORNING WITH TRENDS. AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW JERSEY AND WAS WEDGES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND THROUGH THE LOWEST 3000FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WERE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. ABOVE THAT WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO A LOW IN ILLINOIS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THIS FRONT TODAY. MODELS SHOWED THE BEST CHANCE THIS MORNING NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LEWISBURG TO LYNCHBURG. THE CLOUDS AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE RISE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY. LOCATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA MAY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH ANY SUN. AS THE LOW IN ILLINOIS MOVES NORTHEAST THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME MODELS ERODE THE WEDGE LATE TODAY BUT HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SOLUTION OF SLOW CAD EROSION. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... WITH THE WEDGE GONE THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A WARM DAY AS SWLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HINTS FOR A SLOWER MOVEMENT. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY EVENING...THEN CLEAR THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE WILL SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION RETURN TO AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS AND MOST LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE STRENGTHENING SUN ANGLE WILL BE VERY TOUGH TO OVERCOME DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH THE COLD POOL OF AIR MOVING IN ON FRIDAY MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS FAR WEST IN UPSLOPE NW FLOW AND RUN SLGT CHC POPS UP TO THE BLUE RIDGE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET SOME THUNDER ON FRIDAY WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE COLD POOL AND MAYBE EVEN SOME GRAUPEL BUT CURRENTLY SEE THIS AS LOW PROBABILITY SO WILL NOT INCLUDE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY MORNING AND WE WILL START THE WEEKEND ON A VERY COLD NOTE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MARCH MADNESS AT ITS FINEST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY... A SLIGHT REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE FRI-SAT EVENT. BEYOND THAT...THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SHORT WAVE...VARYING FROM VERY STRONG ON THE GFS TO VERY WEAK ON THE ECMWF TRACKING INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE WEST MONDAY...NOT TO THE DEGREE THE GFS WOULD ADVERTISE AT THIS POINT. WILL EVALUATE THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH LATER MODELS...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AS OF YET. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 735 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED SOUTH INTO VIRGINIA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO ILLINOIS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WAS ONGOING NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS WEDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHCONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z/8PM. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND SURFACE WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT RAIN THREAT WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY AND TONIGHT.CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH MVFR FOG AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ACROSS THEN ENTIRE AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ALL TAF SITES THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST...THEN NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND SUB VFR CEILINGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. VFR RETURNS TO AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY WHILE UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR LOW CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 135 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... MULTIPLE SENSORS AT THE KDAN AUTOMATED OBSERVATION UNIT HAVE MALFUNCTIONED. THE DEW POINT WAS NOT BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME. TECHNICHIANS WILL BE INVESTIGATING THE OUTAGE THIS MORNING. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/KK SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...AMS/RAB AVIATION...AMS/PM EQUIPMENT...AMS

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