Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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452 FXUS61 KRNK 290750 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 350 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Tropical Storm Bonnie will weaken today as it moves to the South Carolina coast. This system is expected to move very slowly northward along the coast the next several days causing unsettled weather across the mid atlantic region through mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Early this morning, the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located off the South Carolina coast. This system has been slow to move. However, showers have made it as far northwest as I-40 in NC, but even that is light coming from a mid deck. The 00z GFS seemed too fast with rainfall this morning, and overall followed the 00z Local WRF/NAM and ECMWF solutions. With these solutions still sharp gradient between where the heavier showers fall today into this evening and where it hardly rains at all. Cut back on pops today with still some likely to categorical pops in the Piedmont and to the Blue Ridge. Subsidence zone may allow for some drying in the north today with models allowing for possible scattered showers to move over the WV/Far SW VA mountains this afternoon. At this time will see higher PWATS of 1.5" or higher edge into the Piedmont with an inch over the mountains. Given fairly different solutions in terms of where heavier rains will fall, the overall setup does not show a high probability for flooding rains. Will still have to watch for any slower movement later today. For may add possible localized flooding in the Hazardous Weather Outlook in the Piedmont, with low probability elsewhere. As far as thunderstorms go, seems enough cloud cover and low topped showers given tropical setup to limit thunder. Will keep isolated thunderstorms with heavy rain over the Southside Virginia into NC piedmont area. Tonight, the remnants of Bonnie will stay along or just inland of the South Carolina coast. Setup continues to favor showers over the east during the night but usually at night tropical systems with respect to rainfall tighten up, such that areas along and west of the Blue Ridge appear to dry out after midnight or have limited coverage. Still confidence is not high to go completely dry as the 00z NAM and ECMWF are hitting an area over the Triad of NC into portions of Southside VA around Martinsville and Danville with a heavy band of rain. As for temperatures, the clouds and showers should be keeping highs lower today but expect muggy conditions with temps reaching the 70s most areas. Tonight stays muggy with lows in the upper 50s mountains to mid 60s east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 210 am Sunday... Tropical Storm Bonnie, lingering around the Carolina coast, will be the focus through mid week. High humidity and showers will be in the forecast as long as it remains with highest pops along and east of the Blue Ridge, and lowest in the west. Even if the deeper moisture hugs the coast, any increase in sunshine across our area will result in increasing instability with diurnally driven showers and scattered thunderstorms. With more breaks in the cloud cover, temperatures will be warmer than normal with 80s for highs. Lows generally in the 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Saturday... The air mass will remain warm and humid, with a continuation of diurnally driven deep convection. A cold front is forecast to approach the forecast area from the west Friday. If by chance the tropical low is still around, this front should give it a boot out to sea. If there is a threat for stronger sort of storms for this upcoming week, it would come with Friday`s frontal passage. Temperatures, especially the overnight lows, will favor above normal readings through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 139 AM EDT Sunday... Problem for aviation will be remnants of tropical storm Bonnie along the SC/NC today into tonight. Not a lot of consistency in model solutions on how west and north the rain and in turn the lower cigs make it this period. Based on latest guidance will lean toward the local 00z WRF combined with a blend of the 00z nam/gfs. With this in mind will see a delay in rainfall and lower cigs. At this time seems Roanoke and points east will have better threat of seeing rainfall causing cigs/vsbys to drop to mvfr or worse at times in the 18-end of taf period time though look for improvements at Roanoke after 03z/30. Further west will see some rain make it to BCB/LWB but not confident will see cigs/vsbys below 3kft. Before that already seeing a dewpoint depression of 2f at LWB and with slow down of cloudier skies, models show potential for mvfr fog after 09z at LWB so added a tempo group. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Low confidence on flight category for Monday-Thursday. Models indicate low pressure will stall over the eastern mid-atlantic and linger through mid week. Our forecast area will be on the western periphery of this feature which suggests best flight conditions will be over and west of the Blue Ridge. MVFR or lower ceilings are possible at KLYH and KDAN Sunday night and Monday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AMS/WP

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