Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 260555 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 155 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL...AND BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 830 PM EDT SATURDAY... ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING GIVEN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOTS OF CAPPING ALOFT VIA DRY AIR OFF SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER STILL COULD POP ANOTHER LOW TOPPED SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER OLD OUTFLOW AND LINGERING THETA-E RIDGING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING. LATEST HRRR ALSO SHOWING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHRA OVERNIGHT SO MAY LEAVE IN A MENTION A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE WEST. OTRW EXPECT SOME LINGERING STRATO-CU OVERNIGHT TO GRADUALLY FADE BEFORE AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP ESPCLY SW SECTIONS WHERE EARLIER HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. ALSO BEEFED UP FOG IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS AS EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BUMPED UP LOWS A LITTLE IN SPOTS UNDER HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD KEEP ALL LOCATIONS IN THE 60S OVERALL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH LOSE OF HEATING THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...LEADING TO PATCHY FOG FORMING IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. A SURFACE REFLECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY ALLOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...ANY STRONG CONVECTION ON THE OUTER RINGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...POSSIBLY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THEREFORE...SUNDAY`S AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SCATTERED PULSE STORMS. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUGGY WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. WITH A WARM START AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID/UPPER 80S WEST TO LOW 90S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 303 PM EDT SATURDAY... ZEROING IN ON POSSIBLE DECAYING MCS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE BEGINNING OF MONDAY. NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THE PRECIP FIELDS...BUT THINK THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORM WILL BE ONLY CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. BY MONDAY WHILE WE MAY SEE MORE CLOUD COVER THE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS LEADING TO MORE CONVERGENCE OVER THE BLUE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE VERY CLOSE IN HITTING THE MOUNTAINS WITH BETTER THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION MOVING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT BY LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL BROADBRUSH THREAT CWA WIDE...THOUGH THINK THE CHANCE IS GOING TO BE 40/50 AROUND AND EITHER SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LESSER THREAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK NORTHEAST. THERE COULD SOME ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW VA/NW NC MAYBE HAVING 30ISH CHANCE. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING...ESPECIALLY LOWS AS HEIGHTS BUILD. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 EAST. MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONAL WITH LOWER TO MID 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S SOUTHEAST...BUT THE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME IN THE MORNING. HIGHS ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 238 PM EDT SATURDAY... STRONG UPPER RIDGE STICKS AROUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BUT WILL RETROGRADE WEST BY THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY AREA SINKS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS WERE KEEPING THREAT OF SFC WAVES COMING UP THE FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST COAST FRI-SAT THOUGH THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE REGARDING TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...WITH CONSENSUS KEEPING MORE AN INLAND LOW WITH FRONT BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT OF STORMS IN THE THU NIGHT-FRIDAY TIME FRAME...WITH FRONT SLOWING UP OVER THE COAST BY SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT WILL KEEP AT LEAST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INTO SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY. TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD...THOUGH DEWPOINTS MAY DROP A LITTLE IN THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY IF THE FRONT MOVES FAR SOUTHEAST. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 0155 AM EDT SUNDAY... THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE WE DEAL WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE ON SUNDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS STREAMING IN FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WELL UPSTREAM...WHILE THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPS A LIGHT AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW COMING INTO THE BLUE RIDGE TO GENERATE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG BY DAYBREAK. TYPICAL FOG MAGNET KLWB SHOULD BE ABLE TO COOL ENOUGH WITH THE THIN CLOUD COVER TO GENERATE LIFR VSBYS IN FOG. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK AND GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING CU FIELD. THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON DOES NOT HAVE BIG FORCING WITH IT AND BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE QUITE MEAGER. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD AND DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL USE ONLY VCSH WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST... THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. OUTSIDE MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MAINLY VALLEY FOG...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BEFORE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE COMING WORKWEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A POTENTIAL DEEP FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...JH/RCS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...MBS/NF

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