Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 280558 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 158 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TO ALONG THE COAST BY THIS EVENING AND WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 700 PM EDT MONDAY... TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN WERE ADVERTISED...GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 DEGREES...AND DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY WARMER...GENERALLY 1-3 DEGREES...SO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND TRENDED HOURLY TEMPERATURES FROM CURRENT WARM READINGS TO OVERNIGHT MINS. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND NEAR RECORD/RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...SO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE NEARLY AS MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AS OBSERVED LAST NIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK. ENJOY THE LAST FEW WARM DAYS BEFORE THE COLDER WEATHER SETS IN LATER THIS WEEK. AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... 1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH THE VALLEYS DECOUPLING AND BECOMING COOLER THAN THE RIDGES. PLAYED LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS TO THE RIDGE TOPS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. WITH THE HIGH CENTER IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE 1-2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS AT LWB/BLF/BCB (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS ON TUESDAY). WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION LEANED POPS TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF/NAM OVER THE FASTER AND WETTER GFS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 317 PM EDT MONDAY... A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CRAWL EAST OVER THE OHIO-TENN VALLEYS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A LEE TROUGH HANGING OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIVE-TILTED...NO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT/LEE TROUGH. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS CLEARING THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY PIVOT OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH UNTIL THIS TROUGH PASSES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STAYS BRIEFLY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WITH THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINING AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUGGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TIMING OF SHOWERS TRACKING EAST OVER THE AREA WILL HELP DETERMINE AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...OUT EAST UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. WITH THE FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY... FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN US AND WILL BE PULLING DOWN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON. -6C TO -8C 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SE WV AND SW VA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AND QUICK HITTING SO SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE COLD TEMPS THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALSO THIS WEEKEND...PRESSURE RISES...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A 45-55KT CROSS BARRIER LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY... SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE AROUND 20 KTS THIS MORNING...AND ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS LATER TODAY...WITH OCNL SFC GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TODAY UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY...THICKENING AND LOWERING TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z/2AM WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... LOWER RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A 4-8 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ATTM IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD END 1 OR 2 HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CIGS/VSBYS TRENDING UPWARD AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SORT OF RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE ONLY AT BLF AND LWB FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DRY SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS TO THE WEST VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 322 PM EDT MONDAY... SOMEWHAT BETTER HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...BUT REMAIN POOR ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH /0.10/ TO A QUARTER /0.25/ OF AN INCH. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 10/28... ROANOKE.....86 (1919) LYNCHBURG...88 (1919) DANVILLE....85 (1984) BLUEFIELD...77 (1984) LEWISBURG...76 (1984) BLACKSBURG..80 (1984) && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...KK/RAB SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...CF AVIATION...PM FIRE WEATHER...PM CLIMATE...JH

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