Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 300012 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 812 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY...STALLING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 333 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THE WIND FLOW REMAINS WEAK AT 5-15 KTS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO A FEW STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS LIKE TUESDAY. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TAPER OFF OR FADE AROUND MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD REACH THE OHIO RIVER BY 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE SWODY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS OUR CWA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND SPLITS THE MARGINAL POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... COLD FRONT WILL BE HEADING TO THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LIKELY TO SEE A BAND OF POST FRONTAL TYPE SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN MODEST FORECAST INSTABILITY BEFORE THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. THUS LEAVING IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE SEEING CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER ALL SECTIONS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH 85H TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN +14-16C EXPECT QUITE A FEW LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE VALLEYS WITH DRIER LOW/MID 60S OUT EAST. A MAINLY SUNNY AND MUCH LESS HUMID FRIDAY LOOKS ON TAP UNDER GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL NW FLOW. HOWEVER HEATING OF THE DRY AIR WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS...AND STILL CLOSE TO 90 SE BUT WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY. AFTER ANOTHER RATHER COOL MORNING SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THICKNESS VALUES RISE A BIT AHEAD OF A SECONDARY TYPE DRY BOUNDARY THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WITH ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COOL ADVECTION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT AN UPSLOPE SPRINKLE OVER NW SECTIONS LATE SATURDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL NW FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST OTRW TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AT BEST. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S MOUNTAINS AND LOW/MID 60S AGAIN OUT EAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... PREDOMINATE UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY- MONDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED BACK INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EARLIER ECMWF AND CMC ABOUT THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT STILL HINT AT THIS SO BASICALLY LEAVING OUT MOST POPS OUTSIDE OF SOMETHING ISOLATED SE SECTIONS ON MONDAY. COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ENOUGH BY MIDWEEK TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A BIT MORE CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE NW FLOW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT HESITANT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP GIVEN MAIN LIFT TO THE NORTH BUT APPEARS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH HEATING TO SUPPORT SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES MAY COME WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND DEWPOINTS RISE BUT EVEN THEN SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH LACKING SO CHANCE POPS IN ORDER. OTRW MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 80S TO AROUND 90 SE AND 60S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOME COOLER 50S VALLEYS EARLY IN THE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY REMAIN LOW. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 800 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... AREA RADARS SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE RAIN WAS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AIRPORTS...BUT NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AT LOW LEVELS TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG BY MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS AFTER 10Z/6AM. IFR TO LIFR FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KBCB AND KLWB. MODELS...INCLUDING DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO HAVE INCLUDED VC IN THE KLYH AND KDAN TAFS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS COMES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST... BEHIND THE FRONT THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...AMS/KK

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