Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 310214 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1014 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AND KEEP US IN A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN...MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1003 PM EDT SUNDAY... TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS EXIST...ONE OVER FAR SW VA/NE TN...AND THE OTHER OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. MESOANALYSIS INDICATED BEST DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND NEAR CHARLOTTE NC. HIGH-RES MODELS AND LATEST NAM SHOW HIGHER POPS NEEDED FOR OUR SRN CWA LATE TONIGHT. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER WRN NC. THERE IS YET ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. THESE WAVES MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NC AND SOUTHERN VA BY DAWN. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TO THE WEST. HIGHS TOMORROW LOOK TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WEST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY... EXPECTING 500 MB RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL PIECES OF ENERGY BUT THESE WILL BE WEAK AND DO NOT APPEAR ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ANY DECENT LIFT FOR THE REGION. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE THERE MAY BE WEAK SURFACE TROFS IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND NO CHANGE OF AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. COMBINATION OF MAV AND MOS GUIDANCE WAS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THIS TIME FRAME. MONDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY PULLING OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING US IN A MOIST AND WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD HELP GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY... MODELS SHOW A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 594 DM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY. CHALLENGING TO TRACK ANY SUBTLE SHORT WAVES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE THAT MAY IMPACT THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE +16 TO +20 RANGE BY SUNDAY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 730 PM EDT SUNDAY... WILL MAINLY SEE VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALLOW FOR CIGS TO DIP TOWARD HIGH END MVFR...THOUGH SEEING LITTLE THREAT AT THE MOMENT. MODELS START FAVORING SOME LOWERING CIGS MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO GROUP OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT DANVILLE WITH SHOWERS WITH THIS WAVE...BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY OTHER TAF SITES AFFECTED. MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH BREAK IN THE OVC TO ALLOW PATCHY MVFR FOG AT LYH LATE TONIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY VFR AGAIN WITH CIGS IN THE 4-6KFT RANGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK THE MOST OF THE DAY WILL HAVE BKN V SCT CONDITIONS. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND SOME MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBCB AND KLWB. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 700 AM EDT SUNDAY... THE DEW POINT READING AT KJFZ...RICHLANDS VA AWOS...IS INCORRECT. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THIS SENSOR WILL BE REPAIRED. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...MBS/NF/WP EQUIPMENT...

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