Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 182300 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 700 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A large area of high pressure will remain over the eastern part of the country before slowly sliding off the coast on Saturday. This will bring us pleasant fall weather through the weekend. Our chances for rain will then start to increase on Monday as a strong cold front approaches from the west.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday... More pleasant fall weather is on tap through tomorrow as a large area of high pressure remains in place across the eastern US. Temperatures tonight will be a bit warmer than last night with mid/upper 30s east of the Blue Ridge, low/mid 30s west with cooler readings in the valleys and some patchy frost and fog once again. Lots of sun with some high clouds for Thursday with highs in the middle 70s east to upper 60s/lower 70s west. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 257 PM EDT Wednesday... Surface high overhead Thursday night will slowly lift northeast to off the mid-Atlantic coast by Friday into Saturday as upper pattern amplifies with 5h ridge over us keeping us dry with warming trend. Ridge axis moves offshore by late Saturday allowing some mid/upper level clouds to increase by Sat night. Lows Thu night will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s over most of the area, with some mid to upper 40s urban areas and well mixed ridges. Highs about 5-10 degrees above normal Friday under sunny skies in the 70s. Slightly milder Friday night with 40s CWA wide. Same temps again Saturday and milder Sat night with lows in the mid 40s to around 50. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 157 PM EDT Wednesday... Major amplification of the upper pattern this period, though still differences in speed of the sfc front and upper trough. The 00z ECMWF more progressive than the 12z GFS. Allowed for a little faster than the GFS but given the highly amplified nature things could be a little slower. With this in mind should see warmer and more humid conditions ahead of the front Sun-Mon with rain chances arriving Sunday night with more showery coverage Mon-Mon night. Some stability indices suggest slight potential for thunder Monday. Arrival of cooler air as upper flow deepens over the central Appalachians. A bit of a winter like setup Tue-Wed with upslope showers. Colder air with the trough may allow for snowflakes in the higher ridges late Tuesday with brisk/breezy conditions Wednesday. Highs in the 70s Sunday and Monday (though Monday could be cooler if rain comes in faster), drops to highs in the 50s, maybe even 40s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 655 PM EDT Wednesday... High pressure will remain in control with VFR flight conditions expected tonight through Thursday under some passing high clouds. Only exception will be possible IFR conditions in nocturnal fog/stratus developing in the valleys. Latest HREF guidance suggests best potential for dense fog around KBCB late and a bit less at KLWB at this point. However based on last night will continue to only use a TEMPO group around daybreak at KBCB and leave it out of KLWB for now. Brief fog also possible around KLYH/KDAN toward dawn but not enough to include mention at this point. Winds will again be light overnight. Once any low clouds/fog dissipate Thursday morning, expecting another day of widespread VFR under southwest winds at 5-10 kts. Extended Aviation Discussion... High pressure will remain over the region through Sunday with generally VFR conditions expected, outside the usual late night/early morning patchy river and mountain valley fog. Moisture returns ahead of an approaching cold front later Sunday night into Monday when the threat for showers along with sub-VFR should increase by early next week.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...JH/MBS/RAB

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