Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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963 FXUS61 KRNK 270113 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 913 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure over the region tonight will give way to a fast moving upper level disturbance that should cross the area from the northwest on Tuesday. Other than some isolated to scattered showers and storms in association with this feature on Tuesday, high pressure will provide for dry and cool weather for much of this week. The chance for more abundant showers and storms, as well as increasing temperatures, return Friday into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 900 PM EDT Monday... Some return of moisture slowly occurring across the region this evening as seen via the latest blended TPW and PWATS off soundings just south of the area. This in advance of a fast moving upper disturbance seen across the Midwest this evening per latest water vapor loop. Some of this moisture from spreading out of afternoon cumulus remains stuck under the inversion aloft this evening with even a few sprinkles showing up across the far western I-81 corridor. Although not expecting too much eastward progression of any light showers, will include a shower or sprinkle mention for an hour or two to start late this evening. Otherwise main inbound axis of deeper moisture likely to fade upon arrival into the drier air aloft after loss of heating late tonight as evidenced by latest drier solutions. However likely best to keep some low end pops going late tonight as the NCAR Cam ensemble showers some light showers far west late and perhaps jumping the Blue Ridge early in the morning. Otherwise beefing up clouds over the west and central overnight with partly cloudy to clear elsewhere. Also bumped up lows a little given slightly higher dewpoints southeast, and earlier arrival of strato-cu over parts of the mountains, but still mainly 50s overall by daybreak. Previous discussion as of 230 PM EDT Monday... Daytime cumulus clouds should give way to mostly clear to clear skies this evening. However, the approach of an upper level disturbance will start to bring a return of cloud cover to the area after midnight tonight, and conditions will remain mostly cloudy to cloudy through the day on Tuesday. Isolated showers may reach the far western sections of the area by late tonight, but chances will increase during the day Tuesday. The best potential for showers and storms will extend from roughly Lewisburg, WV to Bluefield, WV to Marion, VA to Boone, NC. East of this region, precipitation in the form of isolated showers will be more likely, east to roughly a Lynchburg, VA to Reidsville, NC line during the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to be on the cool side for this time of year. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s to the lower 50s across the mountains and the mid to upper 50s across the Piedmont. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from around 70 to the lower 70s across the mountains to the mid to upper 70s across the Piedmont.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Monday... At 00z Wednesday (8 pm EDT Tuesday)...the axis of an upper level trof will be exiting our forecast area and any lingering mountain showers will have ended. With a large area of high pressure settling over the region...morning lows Wednesday will be well below normal and went a few degrees below guidance. The COOP MOS guidance is forecasting lows in the upper 30s at Burkes Garden. High pressure continues to influence our weather on Wednesday. With limited mixing...leaned toward the cooler guidance for highs which should range form the lower 70s in the mountains of NW NC to the lower 80s in the NC/VA Piedmonts. The transition to higher humidity levels and warmer temperatures begins Wednesday night into Thursday as higher low level theta-e air lifts north into the region as a deepening west/southwest flow arrives. Most the area will remain dry on Thursday, but a few showers cannot be ruled out in the southern Blue Ridge of NW NC and far southwest VA on the nose of a low level theta-e ridge, increasing PWATs and differiental mountain heating. With downsloping winds, pushed high temps Thursday up a degree or two from the previous forecast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Monday... A return to weather conditions more typical for summer are expected during the long term period, as the long range models show good agreement transitioning from an upper level zonal flow early in the period to an upper trof forming somewhere around the Great Lakes and extending south into the eastern U.S. by late in the weekend into Monday. This will result in increasing temperatures and humidity, as well as an increase in storm chances. An upper level disturbance moving out of the western Gulf of Mexico into eastern VA on Friday/Friday night will help lead a surge in higher PWAT air our area. This higher moisture combined with a series of upper level disturbances...with the usual differences in timing shown in the long range models...will help generate scattered showers and storms each day during the long term period, especially during the peak heating in the afternoon and early evening hours. With increasing CAPES, but low shear through the period,a few pulse severe storms and locally heavy rain are possible. Warmest temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday as 850mb forecast temps approach +20C. This may generate heat index values in the low to mid 90s in the east. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 750 PM EDT Monday... Expecting generally VFR conditions at TAF sites through the period. Fog formation was quite limited last night, and after another day of excellent drying expect increasing mid/high clouds to prevent any sub VFR conditions due to fog/stratus through daybreak. Approaching upper trof will help push a cold front through the area tomorrow, but deep moisture is absent and instability is also limited. Expect the end result to be a VFR cig with isolated showers and possibly a rumble of thunder mainly west of the Blue Ridge. With coverage expected to be so sparse will leave any mention of VCTS out TAFs. BufKit soundings tomorrow show a very well mixed and deep boundary layer so believe some low end gusts in the 15KT to 20KT range will materialize during the afternoon. Extended Aviation Discussion... Isolated IFR/MVFR fog late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning in areas that received rain during the day Tuesday. High pressure will then keep the bulk of the area VFR through Thursday. Friday into Saturday, the potential for sub-VFR conditions increase as showers and storms become more numerous. Likewise, an increase in the boundary layer moisture will also lend itself to better chances of late night/early morning patchy fog. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/JH NEAR TERM...DS/JH SHORT TERM...PH LONG TERM...PH AVIATION...DS/MBS

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