Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 281141 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 741 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE EAST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION BY MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY... COLD FRONT WAS JUST EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AT 4AM. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH EXTENDED WELL BACK INTO WEST VIRGINIA. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WAS APPROACHING THE ROANOKE AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS. MODELS INDICATED THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE AND 850 MB JET THROUGH 15Z/11AM. WIND GUSTS WERE ALREADY REACHING AROUND 35 MPH AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. NO CHANGE TO THE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THE LOSS OF UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLEARING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR TO NORMAL UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE...ALLOWING THE VALLEYS TO BE COOLER THAN THE RIDGES. BLUEFIELD...DANVILLE AND LEWISBURG WILL BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORD LOWS FOR JUNE 29TH. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY... HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST...WHILE BROAD TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THIS FLOW ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING WITHIN THE FLOW. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURE RISE TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING AND DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL PIVOT NORTH OF AREA. THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MARGINAL POTENTIAL TO OUR WEST IN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH APPEARS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE SPC IS MORE IMPRESSED WITH MARGINAL POTENTIAL ON DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. TAPER POPS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HOLD ON TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEST. LOWS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 740 AM EDT SUNDAY... COLD FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. 850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 18Z/2PM SO SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS TODAY...WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND UPSLOPE WEAKENS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUD COVER ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WAS JUST WEST OF KBCB AND KROA AND IS EXPECTED NOT TO IMPACT THESE AIRPORTS. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING WITH THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT THESE WILL NOT RESTRICT THE VISIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE WEST. ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY... JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974 BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970 DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968 LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981 LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970 ROANOKE......44 IN 1919 && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY... THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION ISSUE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ007-009>020- 022>024-034-035. NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>044-507- 508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...RAB AVIATION...AMS/PM CLIMATE...DS EQUIPMENT...DS/AMS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.