Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 230121 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 921 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Upper low over the area will finally head offshore by Monday evening, before lifting north toward the New England coast Tuesday. As this occurs, high pressure builds in and temperatures will start to rise back to at or above seasonal levels by mid to late week.
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As of 905 PM EDT Sunday... Last cluster of deep convection has pushed to the south of the area during the past hour with just some remaining residual showers mainly over the west with the vort axis along the western side of the upper low. Expect these to gradually fade given loss of heating but still enough faint surface based instability to keep some low pops in through about midnight far west/sw. Elsewhere given worked over nature to most areas along the Blue Ridge and across the southeast per the exiting meso low, expecting a few hours of little rainfall. However the core of the upper low now over northern VA will sink south reaching the Outer Banks early Monday. Latest short term guidance shows current light showers rotating around this feature pivoting back southwest after midnight. This will likely cause showers to return to parts of the area mainly east of the Blue Ridge into Monday morning. Thus trimmed back pops for a few hours through late this evening before ramping up to low likelys LYH vicinity, and points east late, with slight/chance coverage back to the Blue Ridge. Otherwise mainly cloudy and continued cool with some locations already near forecast lows due to cooling from earlier showers. This still supports lows mostly in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Previous discussion as of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms to continue from Southwest VA/SE West Virginia, east to the Piedmont thru evening, with storms dying off after dusk. High-res models favoring two corridors now for best coverage...albeit still mainly scattered. One over the far SW VA mountains and the other still from the Alleghanys to Southside VA. There may be a lull in activity overnight between shortwaves, but another stronger wave moving in from KY into SC overnight combined with the upper low over NC will keep threat going thru Monday morning...but looks like the piedmont has better threat. Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 40s west to lower 50s east. Monday, the upper low slowly moves off the NC/VA coast by will continue to see shortwaves rotate in from the north on the west side of this system. Still looks at least a scattered coverage of mainly showers over most of the forecast area by midday into the afternoon. With more clouds than sun across the area look for highs to be similar to today from the mid to upper 60s west to upper 60s to lower 70s east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 306 pm EDT Sunday... A pattern change is coming finally for those who have not enjoyed the cooler weather. As the upper low pulls away to the north toward the New England coast Tuesday, upper heights will rise with surface high pressure building overhead. Lingering showers over the northeast CWA will diminish Monday evening. Skies clear but temps will only fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Tuesday will start the warmup but highs will be close to normal for late May ranging from the lower to mid 70s west to upper 70s to around 80 east under mainly sunny skies. Dewpoints to start edging up into the 50s Tuesday night into Wednesday as the high moves to off the Southeast coast, but staying strong enough to keep skies clear to partly cloudy. Somewhat westerly flow Wednesday allow temps to soar into the mid 80s east of the Blue Ridge, with upper 70s to around 80 in the mountains. Models are keeping the main storm track over the middle of the country, though as we start to heat up cannot rule out a stray shower in the afternoon over the higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1211 PM EDT Sunday... Expect warmer...more like mid to late June type temperatures and weather from midweek into the holiday weekend as an upper ridge builds over the Southeast U.S. This pattern will favor mainly dry yet more humid conditions. There will be enough instability and moisture each day across the Appalachians to generate scattered showers and thunderstorm, with less threat in the Piedmont. The cycle will be typical diurnal afternoon/evening variety. Highs Thu-Sun will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s in the mountains to mid to upper 80s in the piedmont. Lows will generally run from the upper 50s to lower 60s mountains to mid 60s piedmont. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 640 PM EDT Sunday... Southward moving bands of showers and storms will continue into early this evening with some spotty small hail around within the stronger storms mainly in the KLYH-KDAN corridor. Showers should start to diminish by 02Z/10 PM, and eventually end over the entire terminal forecast area overnight following loss of daytime heating. However, some isolated lingering showers may occur after midnight along and east of a KLYH-KDAN line which will remain closer to an upper level low pressure system near the coast. Models favor some lowering of broken cigs to around 1-3k ft with some MVFR fog. Confidence just high enough to keep MVFR at most sites although expecting mostly VFR for a while after the showers taper off later this evening. Will see continuation of mainly broken ceilings Monday though should rise to VFR by late morning. Showers and isolated storms again possible moreso east of a KDAN to KLYH line, though some may slip toward the mountains in the afternoon, but coverage will be more isolated than today. Given likely bands of showers over the east, included a prevailing VFR shower mention from KROA east Monday afternoon while leaving out elsewhere given uncertainty at this point. Otherwise looking at a mix of VFR to high end MVFR cloud bases in the afternoon, but with much weaker northerly winds at 5-15 kts. Extended discussion... Overall expecting improving aviation weather after the upper low lifts out Monday night into Tuesday. We will be going to a more summer like pattern mid to late week with high pressure offshore providing south to southwest flow. Thus mainly VFR expected but the potential exists for early morning fog at times around KLWB/KBCB. Also some convection could pop up in the mountains Thursday-Friday making for localized afternoon/evening MVFR. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WERT/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...JH/WERT/WP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.