Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 060224 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 924 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION INTO MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 920 PM EST FRIDAY... UPDATED GRIDS STAYED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS...ONLY CHANGED OVER NIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND. THERE ARE SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND NORTH WEST REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM CONDITIONS DOMINATING UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE. PREVIOUS AFD... SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR DEEPENING SW FLOW ALOFT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW/TROUGH EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAP HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS PERIODS OF THICKER MID/HIGH CANOPY BY MORNING OVER THE NORTH AND WEST MAKING FOR CLEAR TO BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. THIS ALSO PLAYS INTO JUST HOW COLD TO GO WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO START SATURDAY BUT AGAIN MOSTLY OF THE MID/HIGH VARIETY WITH MOISTURE POSSIBLY DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ENERGY STARTS TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST. OTRW DRY AND A BIT WARMER UNDER AN ELONGATED AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH THE PASSING MID/HIGH DECK. THINK WITH GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT WILL SEE HIGHS GET BACK INTO THE 40S...ALTHOUGH GIVEN LIGHT MIXING UNDER SOME CLOUDS MAY SEE SOME SPOTS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GET STUCK IN THE 30S UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS OPTED TO STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS THERE IN CASE THE CANOPY PERSISTS LONGER OR IS THICKER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY... SATURDAY NIGHT A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ANOTHER UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING WHICH BOOTS THE SOUTHER STREAM SYSTEM EAST AS IT DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...BUT THIS MAY TAKE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY. CLOUD COVER AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST. THIS MAY KEEP THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST SUNDAY. MORE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WEST ON MONDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO NEED A CHANGE IN THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. NAM...GFS AND GEFS ALL TRENDING TOWARD 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY... SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY...WITH EASTERN 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF BEING RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...HEIGHTS RISE...AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING LONG FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW...THAT MAY EVEN TAP MOISTURE FROM THE ONLY PARTIALLY FROZEN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. QUESTIONABLE IF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SINCE SURFACE TO 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE WEST BY THAT TIME. COLD 850 MB AIR WITH THE EASTERN TROF REACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -18 BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LOW WIND CHILL VALUES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 0645 PM EST FRIDAY... LITTLE TO NO VARIATION IN VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW PAST SUNSET...WITH ONLY THE OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL CANOPY PRESENT MAINLY IN THE WEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST ALL AROUND. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... VFR LOOKS TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG UPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING. THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO KEEP SUB- VFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER CEILINGS CONTINUING WITH THE PRESENCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN KICKS IN. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE LIMITING CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY...
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AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY... MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN RIVER. THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SATURDAY. SEE THE LATEST WBCFLSRNK PRODUCT FOR ADDED DETAILS.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...LC/MBS/JH SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...JH/JM/WP HYDROLOGY...JH

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