Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 250538 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 138 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. THESE FRONTS WILL BRING AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 915 PM EDT SUNDAY... DRIER AIR SURGING SW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH OFF THE VA/NC COAST WILL KEEP SOME OF THE WESTERN RIDGES MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S. UPDATED FORECAST THEN SHOWS COOLER LOWS IN THE VALLEYS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG...BUT WILL BE VERY PATCHY. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION. GFS CONTINUES TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS IN BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION...NOT ONLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS...BUT ALSO GENERATING LOW AMOUNTS OF QPF ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER MODELS CLEARLY SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...BUT DO NOT ADVERTISE MUCH IF ANY QPF FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THUS...HAVE LEFT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. NONETHELESS...AM SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE RETURN FLOW/MOISTURE IS BEST AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH. SCT-BKN CU COULD BE EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS MON AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE +12C RANGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...AND ALSO LOCATION ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH.. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH WITH EACH PASSING WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE TUESDAY MORNING. BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH SOME WEAK JET DYNAMICS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...THEN DRIFTS EAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT WHERE INSTABILITIES WILL BE HIGHER. TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 80S EAST. A SECOND WAVE ALONG THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE IT SINKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH WEAKER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE AREA DEEP INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND START EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL RIDE THE FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BUBBLE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TRYING TO WEDGE SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVING THIS BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WITH A WEAK WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THING A LITTLE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND RAIN COULD LIMIT INSTABILITIES AND THEREFORE REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR ANY STORM TO GO STRONG TO SEVERE. MODELS ARE HANGING ON TO THIS WEDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT WAVE...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL VARY DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND IF THIS WEDGE ENTERS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD VARY FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST SHOWS RAIN EACH PERIOD...RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT AND UNDER A TENTH /0.10/ OF AN INCH EACH DAY. THIS WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS BUT WILL HELP WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS AND ON-GOING WILD FIRE CONTROL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY... PSUEDO WEDGE FROM WEDNESDAY WILL ERODE SOME ON THURSDAY BUT COULD REMAIN OVER THE HILL CITY OF LYNCHBURG INTO THURSDAY. THE ECM HOLDS THIS STUBBORN WEDGE WHILE THE GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND CLEARING RAIN OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE ECM ACTUALLY HANGS ON TO THIS WEDGE INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE NEXT WAVE ENTERS THE MID WEST. WITH THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST...WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE ECM/GFS FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MODELS WERE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT COULD STALL OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST TO PUSH THE WEAKER FRONT OFFSHORE. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAB/WP NEAR TERM...RAB/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...AMS/PW

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