Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 230114 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 914 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will slide east across the region overnight through Tuesday afternoon, then reside along the Mid-Atlantic coast into Wednesday. The next decent chance of showers, for at least areas west of the Blue Ridge, will be Friday when a cold front moves into the area.
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As of 855 PM EDT Monday... Very comfortable overnight in store for late August with dewpoints in the 50s in all except the far southern/eastern sections. Seeing some high clouds stream across which looks to continue for the next few hours before the upper wave axis to the south slides east followed by surface high pressure building overhead late. This should allow for mainly clear skies overnight with good radiational cooling outside of patchy fog/stratus late. May still have to watch for some patchy strato-cu near the Blue Ridge under the steep inversion seen off evening soundings but think overall dry air to win out overnight. Expect overall lows in the 50s except perhaps around 60 south/southeast, with a few 40s possible deeper valleys where fog is less, so lowered lows a few degrees overall. Previous valid discussion as of 237 PM EDT Monday... High pressure will continue to provide lower humidity through Tuesday as it moves from the Ohio Valley east to the mid-Atlantic coast. The cumulus out there today will fade somewhat after sunset. The 12z NAM however lingers lower clouds throughout the night. Given drier air aloft, not seeing this. At times, some thin cirrus will pass by overnight. Overnight, expect lows to range from the lower to mid 50s in deeper mountain valleys, to lower 60s in the piedmont. Fog will also be present near the rivers in the west. Tuesday will be mostly sunny. Flow turns more southeast as the high shifts off the coast. Dewpoints slowly rise, but still favor a less humid feel, than recent weeks. As 5h heights rise some, expect high temps to range from the upper 70s to lower 80s west to mid 80s east. Some cumulus should form in the heat of the day along the slopes of the Blue Ridge given southeast flow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM EDT Monday... The center of high pressure will gradually work its way southeast from near Pennsylvania to off the North Carolina coast by Thursday. Concurrently, the upper trough pattern over the region will transition to more of a zonal flow will increasing geopotential heights. The result will be a trend towards temperatures around normal to readings about five degrees above normal by Thursday. Precipitation will slowly start to be reintroduced into the forecast. On Wednesday, there may be enough of a southerly return of moisture into the northern mountains of North Carolina for some afternoon isolated showers or storms. By Thursday, that moisture return will be even greater, and the influence of the capping of the ridge less. Isolated to scattered coverage of afternoon and evening showers and storms is expected across the mountains and just east of the crest of the Blue Ridge. Any activity should dissipate quickly around or after sunset. Thursday night, a cold front will be approaching the region from the northwest. Its influence may allow for some late night showers to arrive across far western portions of the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Monday... During this portion of the forecast we will transition back into a more active pattern for daily chances of showers and storms. There will be the potential for both diurnal and differential heating pop- up showers and storms primarily across the mountains. We will also have periodic shortwave troughs progress across the area and add to the potential for additional, more organized precipitation. Guidances varies as to the timing and magnitude of these disturbances. However, the general consensus offers a solution that the Sunday into Monday time frame will be when these will become more frequent. The far eastern sections of the forecast area will see the least amount of coverage. Temperatures on Friday will average five to ten degrees above normal. Each day slightly cooler conditions are expected so that readings by Monday will be around, or slightly higher than normal. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 655 PM EDT Monday... High pressure will drift slowly east across the region tonight into Tuesday night before sliding to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday. This will keep widespread VFR conditions in place under scattered afternoon cumulus each day. The only exception will be early morning fog mainly at western TAF sites, especially KLWB/KBCB where IFR or worse will be possible. Extended aviation discussion... Thursday a bit more moisture will work its way north into western parts of the area on the west side of a departing high pressure. Isolated showers will be possible across the mountains, but for the most part, VFR conditions will still prevail. On Friday, there is a greater chance of showers, and possibly some storms, with the approach of our next cold front. Pockets of MVFR conditions will again occur briefly under the stronger showers or storms. The front should wash out across the region Saturday although enough moisture will remain for diurnal mountain showers and storms Saturday afternoon when periods of MVFR could occur. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/PC/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...JH/PC/WP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.