Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 131916 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 316 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL TRACK EAST TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY MONDAY EVENING...ACROSS US TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY... OVERALL FORECAST DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. STILL LOOKS LIKE GOOD SOUTHERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. MODELS SHOWING ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE LATE...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE UP THE SPINE INTO THE ROANOKE AREA. THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS FROM TN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING SO KEEPING THE HIGHER WINDS WEST OF US...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUR FAR SW VA COUNTIES FOR GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. MONDAY MORNING THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL STILL BE WELL WEST OF US ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH JET ENERGY AND SFC CONVERGENCE PUSHES INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY WITH UPPER VORT MOVING ACROSS TO KEEP SHOWER CHANCES ABOVE 50 PERCENT...WITH LESS THREAT EAST OF LYH/DAN UNTIL AFTER 4 PM...WHEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. MODELS VARY ON TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES...BUT IN THE BIGGER PICTURE ALL PAINT AN INCREASINGLY WET MONDAY WITH HIGHS COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NC OVER TOWARD THE SRN BLUE RIDGE OF VA...TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NEW RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL SEE 70S BOTH OVER THE SE WV AREA AND ALONG/EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 205 PM EDT SUNDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING AND WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING...SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION ARE THREE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. FIRST...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...AS WELL AS THE GRADIENT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEVERAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A 55+KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...EXPECT THAT THE STRONGER SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DRAWING THESE WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE SWODY3 PLACED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE UP TO 10 MB...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS SPEED ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. SECOND...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST ARE...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND HIGHER RIDGES. A LONGER DURATION OF HEAVIER RAIN WOULD NOT BE A FLOODING PROBLEM WITH SPRING PLANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...MAY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES...SOMETHING THAT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. USED A NON-DIURNAL CURVE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF QUICKLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 8 DEGREES PER HOUR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER PASSAGE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGER MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY SUNSET. ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE WITH WARM GROUND. SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WEDGING AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST OR A LIGHT FREEZE IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE FOR POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECENS MEAN WITH HANDLING THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ITS MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 135 PM EDT SUNDAY... VFR WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AT MOST SITES. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. TONIGHT...MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT MOST SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE WV/VA BORDER SO HAVE MVFR IN AT BCB/ROA/LYH/DAN. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS AND DRIZZLE EXISTS AS WELL ESPECIALLY AT BCB/ROA BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER THIS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE MVFR BY MID-LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON PLUS INCREASED THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA. LOOKS WET INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST STAYING BELOW VFR MONDAY EVENING THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ACT TO KEEP MVFR CIGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NW. && .CLIMATE... WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECORDS AT OUR MOUNTAIN CLIMATE SITES TODAY APRIL 13. THE ROA/LYH/DAN RECORDS ARE OUT OF REACH...SO WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS SECTION. STATION RECORD/YEAR/RECORDS BEGAN FORECAST HIGH APR 13TH BLACKSBURG 80/1977/1952 78 BLUEFIELD 81/1977/1959 80 LEWISBURG 79/1977/1973 78 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP CLIMATE...WP

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.