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000
FXUS61 KRNK 140915
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
515 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the southeast will provide sunny and warm
conditions to the region today. Low pressure and associated cold
front will drop south from Canada this afternoon and approach
the area on Monday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible with the passage of this front. This front lifts back
north as a warm front on Tuesday in advance of the next low
pressure system expected to approach the region by the middle of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

 -Dry, windy, and warm conditions expected today.

Clear skies this morning as upper flow transitions from
northwest to west-southwest in advance of an upper wave
dropping south from Canada. Weak high pressure will be centered
over the mid- South and a tightening pressure gradient between
the high to the south and low moving into southern New England
will result in gusty west winds today.

850mb low level jet increases in advance of the front/low
dropping from Canada. BUFKIT indicating areas of 35kts at the
top of the mixed layer, along with steep lapse rates should
allow for strong mixing down to the surface. Some gusts into the
30mph range possible for the mountains, but widespread 20mph
gusts nearly areawide by later this afternoon.

Along with gusty winds, warm afternoon highs are expected.
Increasing southwest flow will advect warmer air into the
region, thus expecting highs in the 70s to low 80s under mostly
sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 430 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1: Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon/evening

2: Additional round of storms Tuesday afternoon as well


An almost stationary cold front will sag south further into our
area, ending up north of the VA/NC state line. This front will act
as a zone of converging air flow and focal point for storm formation
in the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Storms will likely
occur during the peak heating of the day, with MLCAPE values >1000
J/kg east of the Blue Ridge in central VA. In addition, mid-level
lapse rates will be quite steep, with some deterministic models
predicting >9 C/km. The main threats with these storms will be
damaging winds and large hail.

On Tuesday, the front will begin to lift back north as a warm front
due to an approaching low pressure system in the Midwest. With less
instability available, expecting Tuesday`s storms to be weaker in
strength than Monday`s.

Temperatures will be quite warm through this period, with highs in
the 70s and 80s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 500 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Points:

1. Warm with isolated to scattered shower Wednesday and Thursday.
2. Greater shower coverage on Friday
3. Cooler Saturday with lingering showers in parts of West
Virginia.

The warm front will be lifted too far north on Wednesday by an
approaching low pressure system, and so will not drive the
active weather as it did on Monday and Tuesday. A shortwave
associated with the frontal system will form scattered showers
throughout the area on Wednesday though, with the potential for
a few thunderstorms as well. The best coverage is expected to
coincide with peak heating of the day but continue into the
evening hours.

On Thursday, most of the region should have a break from the
precipitation as a brief period of shortwave ridging moves across the
area in between the two trough systems. The second system however
looks on track to bring isolated to scattered showers to the far
western portions of the area by daybreak Friday.

A cold front passing through the area on Friday will bring
showers to most of the CWA at some point during the day, and by
Saturday most of the area should expect calm weather in the
front`s wake.

Temperatures during the period will be above normal Wednesday and
Thursday, closer to normal on Friday, and a little below normal for
Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Widespread VFR conditions this morning and will continue
throughout the 24 hour TAF period.

High pressure will continue to provide clear skies to the
region. Low pressure and associated cold front will drop south
into southern New England today and some high clouds in advance
of the system may enter the area later in the period.

Gusty west-southwest winds will increase later this morning in
response to an increasing pressure gradient. Strong mixing will
allow for some gusts in the 20 to 30mph range later this morning
and into the afternoon hours. Winds should subside after sunset
after the loss of heating/mixing.

Higher elevations may still see gusts to 20 mph after sunset.
(i.e BLF).


OUTLOOK...

Monday, a weak cold front may bring a return of some showers and
potential thunderstorms, resulting in patchy sub-VFR conditions
to southeast West Virginia. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are
expected.

Mainly VFR through Tuesday, though clouds are expected to
increase.

A low pressure system and stronger cold front approach the area
Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms,
with associated MVFR flight conditions, are expected ahead of
this system, especially Wednesday in the mountains.

Confidence in the above extended aviation scenario is good.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...DS/VFJ
AVIATION...BMG