Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 271701 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1201 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD AGAIN FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER AIR INCLUDING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM EST TUESDAY... ALREADY UPDATED TO DROP THE GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE SW WHERE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BASICALLY TAPERED TO FLURRIES AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG WAVE ALOFT PASSES TO THE SE. OTHERWISE AREA REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN THIS PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH...A RESIDUAL BAND OF SNOW TO THE EAST WITH THE COASTAL LOW...AND THE FINAL UPSTREAM CHANNELED AXIS OF VORTICITY THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE NW MAY TEND TO BOUNCE SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NW ESPCLY AS DEEPER UPSLOPE FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON SO KEEPING IN SOME CHANCE POPS FAR NW RIDGES. ALSO APPEARS MOISTURE TO THE EAST SHOULD FADE WITH THE INCREASING NW FLOW DOWNSLOPE WHILE LINGERING FLURRIES/-SHSN PERSIST NW NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE TO PREVAIL IN THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURES BUT WILL STAY BLUSTERY AND COLD GIVEN THE ONSET OF A NEW SURGE OF DEEPER COLD ADVECTION INTO THIS EVENING PER LATEST PROGS. THUS INCREASING WINDS A BIT MOUNTAINS BUT STILL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND LOWERING TEMPS AS EXPECT THE FAR WEST TO STAY IN THE 20S...WITH LOW/MID 30S BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME LOW/MID 40S SOUTH/SE. THE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE UPSLOPE ZONES OF SE WV AS THE MAIN TRACK OF THE VORT IS FURTHER NORTH. AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL WITH THIS BUT NOT ADVISORY LEVELS. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE RISES WITH SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS WAVE...THOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION AND 8H WINDS NOT FAVORING A HIGH WIND EVENT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS REACH 40 TO 45 MPH. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. TONIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING UP...SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING REALLY FAR. STILL LOOKING AT TEENS WEST TO LOWER 20S EAST...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY... 1029 MB SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...THUS ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA...WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN SPEED. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE WITH WARM ADVECTION. FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS WITH READINGS FROM MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS TO MID AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR COOLER VALLEY MINIMUMS. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW CENTER IS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOISTURE ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR WEST TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT POPS FOR SNOW...BEFORE BETTER POPS TO ARRIVE MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE..UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WEST OF AN INCH OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. 1036 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD OUTBREAK. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 1143 AM EST TUESDAY... VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SCATTERED CLOUDS AND STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS THAT MAY GUST UP TO 25-30 KNOTS AT TIMES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN NW WINDS EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROA-HLX-TNB CORRIDOR. NEXT ROUND OF UPSLOPE CLOUDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WITH PERHAPS MVFR CIGS AT KBLF/KLWB AND POSSIBLY KBCB. SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALSO LIKELY OVER THE WEST SOME INCLUDING A MENTION A VFR MENTION AT KBLF OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH STRONG NW WINDS ALSO PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/PM/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK/MBS AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB/WP

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