-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 271701
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1201 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BRINGING CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER CLIPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD AGAIN FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLDER AIR INCLUDING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EST TUESDAY...

ALREADY UPDATED TO DROP THE GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS
THE SW WHERE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BASICALLY TAPERED TO FLURRIES AND
NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG
WAVE ALOFT PASSES TO THE SE. OTHERWISE AREA REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE
BETWEEN THIS PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH...A RESIDUAL
BAND OF SNOW TO THE EAST WITH THE COASTAL LOW...AND THE FINAL
UPSTREAM CHANNELED AXIS OF VORTICITY THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE NW MAY TEND TO BOUNCE
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NW ESPCLY AS DEEPER UPSLOPE FLOW
KICKS IN BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
SO KEEPING IN SOME CHANCE POPS FAR NW RIDGES. ALSO APPEARS
MOISTURE TO THE EAST SHOULD FADE WITH THE INCREASING NW FLOW
DOWNSLOPE WHILE LINGERING FLURRIES/-SHSN PERSIST NW NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE TO PREVAIL IN THE
WEAK SUBSIDENCE REGION IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURES BUT WILL STAY
BLUSTERY AND COLD GIVEN THE ONSET OF A NEW SURGE OF DEEPER COLD
ADVECTION INTO THIS EVENING PER LATEST PROGS. THUS INCREASING
WINDS A BIT MOUNTAINS BUT STILL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND LOWERING
TEMPS AS EXPECT THE FAR WEST TO STAY IN THE 20S...WITH LOW/MID 30S
BLUE RIDGE AND PERHAPS SOME LOW/MID 40S SOUTH/SE.

THE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
UPSLOPE ZONES OF SE WV AS THE MAIN TRACK OF THE VORT IS FURTHER
NORTH. AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL WITH THIS BUT NOT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE RISES WITH SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS WAVE...THOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION AND 8H
WINDS NOT FAVORING A HIGH WIND EVENT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS
REACH 40 TO 45 MPH. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

TONIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING UP...SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING REALLY FAR. STILL LOOKING AT TEENS
WEST TO LOWER 20S EAST...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...

1029 MB SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...THUS
ENDING UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA...WHILE OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN
SPEED. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE
WITH WARM ADVECTION. FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR LOWS WITH READINGS FROM
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS TO MID AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD ALLOW FOR COOLER VALLEY MINIMUMS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW CENTER IS IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOISTURE
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR WEST TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT POPS FOR
SNOW...BEFORE BETTER POPS TO ARRIVE MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE..UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WEST OF AN INCH OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVELS WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM.
THE LATEST INDICATIONS POINT TO A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROF
DEVELOPING AS PER THE ECMWF...AND SPLIT FLOW OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE
FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND A CUTOFF LOW REGENERATING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA.

THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. 1036
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO USHER IN A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE AND NAEFS ANOMALIES NOW SUPPORT THE GFS
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS COLD
OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1143 AM EST TUESDAY...

VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SCATTERED CLOUDS AND
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS THAT MAY GUST UP TO 25-30 KNOTS AT TIMES.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER
SURGE IN NW WINDS EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROA-HLX-TNB CORRIDOR. NEXT ROUND OF UPSLOPE
CLOUDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WITH PERHAPS MVFR CIGS AT KBLF/KLWB
AND POSSIBLY KBCB. SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALSO
LIKELY OVER THE WEST SOME INCLUDING A MENTION A VFR MENTION AT
KBLF OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH A CHANCE FOR -SHRA...-SHSN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH STRONG NW WINDS
ALSO PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH VFR EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS
AND SOME PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
LIKELY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/MBS
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB/WP