Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 152332 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 632 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front extends from west to east across the southern Appalachians. Most of the Mid-Atlantic region resides north of this front with widespread cloud cover prevailing. This front is expected to gradually lift north tonight as a wave of low pressure ripples east along the front. This will result in a period of rain from the Ohio Valley into the Virginias tonight. This front will lift north as a warm front on Monday and Monday night. Another frontal system will move into the region from the west Tuesday, then move slowly across the area Wednesday before finally move east toward the coast by Thursday. Several more days of mostly cloudy, damp weather can be expected as a result of these frontal systems lingering across the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 625 PM EST Sunday... Increased POPs across the NC/VA border as some light rain has developed ahead of the wedge boundary. Otherwise the forecast remains unchanged with damp dreary conditions lingering into Monday morning, maybe longer. As of 330 PM EST Sunday... Thin spots in the overcast allowed temperatures to sneak into the 50s for all but the northern CWA vicinity of I-64. Parts of the North Carolina Piedmont attained values into the lower 60s. In spite of todays tease of sunshine, extensive cloud cover upstream of the forecast area will overspread the area this evening as a weak upper level disturbance approaches from the northwest. Rain will overspread area before midnight with highest pops/qpf north of 460. Amounts of a tenth to as much as a quarter of an inch are possible across our northern CWA with only trace to a few hundredths of an inch expected from the VA/NC border southward. Temperatures tonight will drift back into the 30s east of the Appalachian Divide, but are expected to remain above freezing. Temperatures west of the divide (generally west of I-77 VA/WV) should get no lower than the 40s...therefore no precipitation type issues expected. A warm front over the southern Appalachians will lift north Monday, albeit questionable as to how fast it will be able to mix out the cooler more stable air east of the Appalachians. Areas west of the Appalachian divide will most certainly be in the warmer air with highs testing 60. If we can get the sun to show itself again here on the east side then maybe we can at least get back into the 50s. If not, temperatures could stay anchored in the 40s for most of the day Monday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EST Sunday... We will remain under the influence of a broad southern stream ridge in a split flow regime through the first part of the week. However by Wednesday we will see the first hints of a change to the pattern that will allow some northern stream energy to penetrate into the region and finally push the lingering baroclinic zone to our west through the region. A lingering wedge will be in place across the region Monday night. However, as high pressure continues to drift off to the east a surge of warm air advection and isentropic lift with a warm front Tuesday will bring a good chance of precipitation to the area. with amplifying low level winds, expect conditions at the higher elevations to become windy though the profile of the boundary layer in the warm air advection pattern will inhibit downward momentum transfer from bringing stringer winds to the lower elevations. On the heels of this, the baroclinic zone will move through as a cold front late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with another good chance for precipitation. There is some hint that a wave may form along the front and slow it down with precipitation lingering more into Wednesday, but for now will go with a more progressive solution with any lingering precipitation confined mainly to upslope areas west of the Blue Ridge as the flow becomes northwest. Temperatures look to remain well above normal through the period, with some cooler air moving west of the ridge behind the front on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM EST Sunday... The upper pattern will become highly amplified as we head into the weekend with a sharp ridge along the east coast and a southern stream closed low moving across the deep south. This pattern will eventually bring abundant moisture to the region as we head into the start of next week. High pressure looks to bring fair weather to the region for Thursday, but a large low over the midwest will push a warm front into the region on Friday with a good chance of precipitation. High pressure over New England will then form a wedge down the east side of the Appalachians for the weekend. Isentropic lift will be steadily increasing as low pressure develops over the lower Mississippi valley and low level southerly winds ride up over the wedge. This will steadily increase our chances for precipitation, ex[especially for Sunday into sunday night. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 630 PM EST Sunday... A shallow wedge boundary continues to drift across the piedmont this evening. Warm moist air overrunning this wedge will bring IFR-VLIFR ceilings and visibilities to the forecast area with mountain ridges remaining obscured, possibly into late Monday afternoon. Light rain and drizzle will likely persist into Monday morning. A warm front will gradually lift north of the area by Monday evening with cigs/vsbys trending back to MVFR. Extended Aviation Discussion... A baroclinic zone will remain anchored across the region sandwiched between a strong upper ridge over the southeast states and an active jet stream from the southwest U.S. into the northeast U.S. Thus, an unsettled, wet weather pattern is expected to remain in place Monday into Tuesday. The frontal boundary may lift north enough by Monday night for a brief period of mainly VFR, but a stronger front will arrive By Tuesday with more showers including widespread sub-VFR. Generally looking at MVFR much of the period, although periods of VFR as well as IFR-LIFR can be expected at times. Models remain uncertain with timing of another wave along a passing cold front during midweek. Some guidance showing another round of showers with sub-VFR on Wednesday with improving conditions Thursday. This while others slower with a break on Wednesday before moisture returns from the southwest Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...RCS

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