Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 291929 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 329 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY... 1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING 12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY. BELIEVE THER IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH. WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY... NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT OVERALL DRY. WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED. WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING INTO THE SRN CWA. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA- KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT 5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 135 PM EDT SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. CEILINGS COULD DROP TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST... THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR CIGS ON TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS . MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...AMS/KK

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