Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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720 FXUS61 KRNK 231857 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 257 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the eastern United States will continue to bring warm and dry weather to the region through the first part of next week. A cold front is forecast to cross through the area on Wednesday or Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 255 PM EDT Saturday... No change in the general synoptic pattern as a large ridge of high pressure dominates the eastern US while tropical systems over the Atlantic remain far enough removed from the region influence our weather this weekend. Combination of diurnal instability, orographic effects, and some weak short wave energy will keep a chance/slight chance for a shower/thunderstorm in the forecast from the southern Blue Ridge into the mountains of NC. Any precipitation will fade quickly by early this evening with dry conditions for the overnight period. Expect another round of patchy fog/stratus development primarily west of the Blue Ridge. Any fog/low clouds will burn off early Sunday, followed by pleasant weather for to close out the weekend. Temperatures will be similar to previous days. Expect lows tonight in the lower 60s east of the Blue Ridge with mid 50s/around 60 to the west and some cooler readings in the valleys. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 80s/near 90 east to low/mid 80s west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Saturday... Model guidance this period remains in generally good agreement on synoptic scale features, though a bit more uncertainty on cloud cover, winds and high temps into Tuesday/midweek in our far southeastern counties. Pattern features a large-scale ridge centered over the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, with a weak closed upper low generally over western TN/MS/AL. A continuation of dry conditions and summerlike temperatures appears to remain the case in this period. Focus then turns to Hurricane Maria`s eventual interaction with the aforementioned large-scale features. 00z deterministic global guidance has shown a slower forward motion and a shift in center track slightly west. Some guidance indicates some far fringe effects - a modest increase in northeast winds and multi- layered cloudiness - into Southside as early as Tuesday. That being said, Maria`s closest approach to the Atlantic seaboard appears to be around midweek (i.e. after the short-term period) with no significant impacts projected in the interior. Interests are encouraged to monitor the latest forecasts specific to Maria from the National Hurricane Center. Overall stuck with a persistence forecast for Sunday and Monday, with dry conditions and mostly sunny skies leading to highs into the mid/upper 80s. Lows should be commonly in the upper 50s to mid 60s, though a couple degrees milder Monday night. Given a bit more uncertainty this morning on western extent of cloud cover Tuesday, did opt to lower highs a bit into the low 80s from Amherst County VA to Rockingham County NC eastward. GFS-based BUFKIT soundings around Danville and Farmville show east-northeast winds in the 900-700 mb layer around 30 kts Tuesday. Don`t think these will fully mix but did increase wind gusts slightly to around 20-22 mph in the Southside and Caswell County NC...essentially a moderate afternoon east-northeast breeze. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Friday... Recent guidance continues to point to Maria`s closest approach to the Chesapeake/coastal Carolinas on Wednesday. Though the current expectation is for no significant effects from Maria aside from a modest increase in northeast to north winds in our far eastern counties, will need to carefully monitor how close Maria`s circulation gets to the Atlantic seaboard. Otherwise, with subsidence still in place, don`t expect much in the way of shower activity, but cloud cover as a whole should increase, especially for those East of the Blue Ridge. A Persistence forecast trend in temperatures will continue through this time period. A cold front approaches from the north and west on Thursday, bringing the possibility of isolated to scattered showers across the area. Timing of the front, at least in the eyes of the GFS, doesn`t look favorable for significant shower coverage or intensity, but it should be enough to push the remnants of Maria far enough off shore to break us free from the easterly flow. Drier and more seasonable conditions should follow the front, and continue into the weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Saturday... No change in the general synoptic pattern as a large ridge of high pressure dominates the eastern US while tropical systems over the Atlantic remain far enough removed from the region influence our weather this TAF period. Any isolated convective precipitation from the southern Blue Ridge into the mountains of NC will be sliding further to the south with no impact to any TAF sites. Thus, expect VFR flight conditions through the period with some nocturnal fog/stratus development primarily expected to affect locations west of the Blue Ridge. Guidance is reluctant to develop obvis at KBCB and KLWB but thus far our stagnant pattern has proven favorable for fog so will defer to persistence and climatology and include a period of IFR cig/vsby toward daybreak at both locations. Any fog/stratus dissipates early Sunday morning with VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Extended Aviation Discussion... Overall persistence forecast into early next week as strong high pressure aloft builds in from the northwest keeping tropical moisture offshore. This should also maintain good flying conditions along with mostly dry weather, outside of any late night/early morning fog through Wednesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...AL LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...AMS/MBS

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