Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 161915 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 315 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will push off the East Coast this evening into tonight. High pressure will cover the region Tuesday through Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 315 PM EDT Monday... A cold front across the Southeast States will travel eastward into the Atlantic ocean this evening into tonight. High pressure will build in quickly this evening and will be centered over West Virginia by Tuesday morning. Winds will decouple in the western valleys overnight. Temperatures will drop enough for frost from the New River Valley into southeast West Virginia and the Alleghany Highlands. While there is some potential for isolated spots in the mountains to have lows around freezing, have held off on any freeze warnings due to lack of areal coverage and confidence in occurrence. Adjustments to the frost headlines can be made this evening depending on temperatures drops and winds tonight. Model guidance was actually warmer on low temperatures for tonight. In general, low temperatures will range from the lower 30s in the colder mountain valleys to around 40 degrees in the piedmont. Surface high pressure will remain in control of our weather Tuesday. Under bright sunshine, high temperatures will warm into the mid 50s in the mountains to the mid 60s in the Piedmont.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 315 PM EDT Monday... Quiet weather this period with gradual warming trend under high pressure. Should be a colder night Tuesday night in the piedmont as the high center shifts over central NC. Some frost headlines are possible again during this time, and will mentioned in the HWO. Lows will be in the 30s Tuesday night across the entire forecast area, with temperatures warming toward the mid to upper 60s Wednesday. As the high shifts a little to our east return flow is going to provide some increase in temps especially in the day. Lows Wednesday night will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s, where the warmer temps actually should be over the ridges in the west with mixing southeast flow. Temperatures warm above normal Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Another bubble high over the southern Appalachians Friday morning but with increasing heights and low level temps will experience temperatures a little milder with lower to mid 40s, except some upper 30s sheltered valleys. Expect little in the way of clouds this period.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 217 PM EDT Monday... Amplified upper ridge over the southeast will keep us on the warmer side of normal and dry heading into the weekend. By Saturday night, the ridge axis begins to get kicked east of our area by a deepening trough pushing into the middle of the country. Models are disagreeing on the depth of the trough with GFS weaker than the Euro, as it closes off a southern low over southern TX. The Euro on the other hand closes to low off further north closer to the northern TX. Since both show low closing off, and upper flow turning more southwest, influx of moisture should bring increasing chances of showers by early next week. Should be a dry weekend followed by a good chance of showers Monday. Temperatures staying above normal during this period.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 137 PM EDT Monday... Upslope flow keeping SCT to BKN MVFR stratocumulus over the mountains this afternoon into this evening. Clearing is expected this evening int tonight, returning all sites to VFR overnight into Tuesday. Northwest winds gusting up to 25 knots especially at higher elevations will diminish tonight as high pressure moves east into the area. Areas of frost are likely in sheltered valleys late tonight into Tuesday morning. Light winds are expected Tuesday with VFR conditions. High confidence in ceilings, visibilities and winds during the taf period. Extended Aviation Discussion... High pressure will remain over the region for the week with VFR weather from Tuesday through Saturday. As the high slides to the east, some return moisture may generate an isolated shower in the northwest mountains of North Carolina early next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ007-009>014-018>020. NC...None. WV...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ042>044-507-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...PW/RAB/WP AVIATION...AMS/KK

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