Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 211139 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 739 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 735 AM EDT THURSDAY... WEAK 1010 MB SURFACE WAVE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY PROVIDING A PERIODS OF RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MODEST...GENERALLY IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN PER RADAR ESTIMATES IN PARTS OF ROCKINGHAM COUNTY. MOST OF THAT HEAVIER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE CWA TO THE EAST. A SECONDARY BATCH OF MORE STRATIFORM RAINFALL CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS MAY PROVIDE A FEW MORE HOURS OF GENERALLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. SEVERAL SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT COUNTIES IN VA AND NC REMAIN IN THE SPC GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY AS A FEW STORMS COULD TAP SOME LATE-DEVELOPING INSTABILITY UNDER CLEARING SKIES ALONG WITH MODEST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KT AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NC COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON BUT WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS TODAY WILL HOLD IN 50S MUCH OF THE DAY BUT COULD SEE A BUMP INTO THE MID-60S IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH ANY CLEARING. OVERNIGHT LOOKS CALM AND PLEASANT WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BUILDS EASTWARD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY... WILL START FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN. NORTHWEST WINDFLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES... OCCASIONALLY REACHING 25 MPH ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE LOW/MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EVENING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH...AND MAY SEE A SHOWER OR TWO PUSH ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING. AT ANY RATE...THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM THE CENTRAL OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OF THE COAST ON SUNDAY... SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN A WARMING TREND...RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SITUATED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 77 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL...AND DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WORDING INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENING OUT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP US IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND OPEN THE PATTERN UP TO BE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WHILE THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS FOR WEDNESDAY SO WE LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST... AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 715 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... LOW PRESSURE PRODUCING PATCHY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS INTO MID-DAY WITH RAIN..REDUCED VSBSYS AND LOWERED CIGS INTO AT LEAST MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RAIN MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...AMS/PC

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