Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 152002 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 402 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FRONT NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY... FRONT JUST EAST OF LYH/DAN/SIF...WITH SPOTTER REPORTING TEMPS DROPPING FROM 68F AT 2PM TO 53F AT 245 PM NEAR REIDSVILLE. STILL DEALING THOUGH WITH SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TO LIFT THIS ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH IS SENDING COLDER AIR RUSHING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME WITH SNOW AND SOME GRAUPEL OR ICE PELLETS REPORTED. STILL GIVEN WARM GROUND NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SNOW...COULD GET SOME BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH UP TO 1-2 INCHES AROUND THE HIGHER RIDGES OF ERN WV INTO FAR SW VA. THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS EVENING AND CURRENT WIND HEADLINES STILL LOOK REASONABLE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUDS INVERSION LOWERING THIS EVENING SHOULD BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO 45 TO 50 MPH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND EITHER SIDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL FAR ENOUGH DESPITE THE SFC WINDS STAYING UP TO ALLOW FOR OUR FREEZE WARNING TO VERIFY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WORKS FROM KY/OHIO OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. WIND WILL SWING TO TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING TONIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD AS 8H TEMPS DROP TO -5 TO -12C TONIGHT THEN MODIFY TO NEAR 0C BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH 40S AROUND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY... ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH WED PM DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RECORD LOWS THREATENED. DRY WEDGE WITH EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL PERSIST UNTIL SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TOWNS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BECAUSE OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW BOTH DAYS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT LLVLS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT SPRINKLES THROUGH SE WEST VA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER SATURDAY MORNING THAN WED/THURS MORNINGS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY... SURFACE HIGH FILLING IN BEHIND FRIDAY`S WEAK BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY COVERS NEW ENGLAND AND THE ENTIRE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THIS HIGH MAY EVENTUALLY PARK OVER NEW ENGLAND SETTING UP ANOTHER DRY WEDGE PER THE ECMWF. THUS...SUNDAY MAY BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH ELIMINATES THE EASTERLY COMPONENT/DRY WEDGE...GIVING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND A WARMER SUNDAY. WILL GO BETWEEN THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY AND BENIGN...UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS. WENT WITH CHC POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT AT THIS TIMERANGE. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY... DEALING WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND VARIABLE CIGS/VSBYS. COLDER AIR WILL TRANSITION RAIN TO SNOW IN THE BLF/LWB SOON. SHOULD SEE CIGS LIFT TO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS CLEARING THINGS OUT THIS EVENING EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE 19-04Z TIME FRAME LEADING TO SVR TURBULENCE PER MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION. ANY CIGS WILL BE GONE AT BLF/LWB AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS SLOW AND WEAK ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE DAY FOR NOW. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS OTRW VFR ELSW TO START THE WEEKEND. && .CLIMATE...
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AS OF 358 PM EDT TUESDAY... APRIL 16TH RECORD LOWS ROANOKE 24F 1943...FORECASTED LOW 26F. LYNCHBURG 27F 1943...FORECASTED LOW 27F. DANVILLE 27F 1950...FORECASTED LOW 30F. BLUEFIELD 23F 1962...FORECASTED LOW 21F. BLACKSBURG 24F 2008...FORECASTED LOW 23F. LEWISBURG 25F 2008...FORECASTED LOW 21F.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059. FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ022>024- 032>035-043>047-058-059. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ014>017-022. NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-020. FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ003>006- 019-020. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAB/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...KM LONG TERM...KM AVIATION...JH/RAB/WP CLIMATE...JC/KM

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