Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 152134 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 534 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure will remain wedged up against the east side of the Appalachians through the weekend. As the high slides off to our southeast, warmer air will move in from the southwest and bring much above normal temperatures to the region by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Saturday... High pressure centered over the area is resulting in fair/dry weather with light winds. Little or no change expected for the remainder of the weekend. There is a shallow layer of moisture just beneath the subsidence inversion, so don`t be surprised to see a period of cloudiness late tonight and early Sunday morning, especially along and east of the Blue Ridge. The only affect this should have would be to hold the temperature up a few degrees and/or accent tonight`s Full Moon... aka Hunter`s Moon, Falling Leaf Moon, Dying Grass Moon (thank goodness), etc. Moonrise this evening is around a 6:45 EDT and will peak at 100 percent fullness around 12:43 AM. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... A fairly progressive low amplitude upper pattern over the lower 48 will push relatively flat ridging into the eastern US as the main jet resides well to our north through the first part of next week. This will allow high pressure to slide off to our southeast and take up a position off the coast, swinging winds around to a southwesterly direction and bringing a surge of warm air into the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region. This is more reminiscent of a summertime pattern and our temperatures will respond accordingly, but with a continued lack of deeper synoptic moisture it appears that our stretch of dry weather will continue into midweek. Temperatures to start the week will be well above normal with lower 80s expected east of the Blue Ridge and mid/upper 70s to the west. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... Still much uncertainty in the forecast toward the end of the week. Model guidance continues to be in good agreement in continuing our stretch of very warm weather through Wednesday, but then solutions diverge in the evolution of a trof moving through the midsection of the country. If there is a trend developing, it appears to be favoring a more progressive open wave solution as opposed to a closed cutoff over the southeast. At this point, believe following the lead of WPC in favoring an ensemble blend is reasonable given the disparity of the deterministic model runs. Thus, it looks like our chances for precipitation will be increasing on Thursday as a cold front approaches. Friday and Friday night look wettest as a coastal low develops and stalls the front over the region. We continue with a good chance of precipitation into Saturday before the coastal low pulls off into New England and we get some improvement for Sunday. Again, there is much uncertainty in the evolution of this pattern and things are subject to change as later model runs hopefully start to converge on a solution. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 100 PM EDT Saturday... Conditions mainly VFR this afternoon, although can`t rule out patchy MVFR ceilings per morning soundings which indicated moisture present between 1500-3000 ft agl. The afternoon sun may lift this moisture and create a bkn cig, therefore only medium forecast confidence that conditions will remain VFR. High pressure wedging southwest thru the area will promote mainly VFR condition through the remainder of the weekend, although will have to monitor closely. There is potential for some cloudiness to get trapped underneath the subsidence inversion, thus cautiously optimistic that it will remain totally VFR, the NAM suggesting bkn/ovc skies for both ROA/BCB for the overnight. Other models suggest less cloud cover with mainly VFR. At the very least, if clouds do not materialize will have to deal with late night river valley fog at LWB/BCB with potential for period of IFR for a few hours Sunday morning. Extended aviation discussion... Looking for mostly VFR conditions through Wednesday aside from late night/early morning patchy dense fog in the river valleys. && .CLIMATE...
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As of 515 PM EDT Saturday... Record maximum temperatures through Thursday, Oct 20. Oct 16 Location Record Max Bluefield.....81 in 1989 Danville......89 in 1985 Lynchburg.....89 in 1897 Roanoke.......85 in 1930 Blacksburg....80 in 1992 Oct 17 Location Record Max Bluefield.....78 in 2000 Danville......88 in 1989 Lynchburg.....88 in 1908 Roanoke.......86 in 1938 Blacksburg....80 in 1989 Oct 18 Location Record Max Bluefield.....79 in 2007 Danville......86 in 2007 Lynchburg.....91 in 1938 Roanoke.......91 in 1938 Blacksburg....80 in 1953 Oct 19 Location Record Max Bluefield.....81 in 1984 Danville......85 in 1953 Lynchburg.....88 in 1938 Roanoke.......91 in 1938 Blacksburg....80 in 1991 Oct 20 Location Record Max Bluefield.....79 in 1993 Danville......88 in 1984 Lynchburg.....85 in 1993 Roanoke.......84 in 2005 Blacksburg....82 in 1985
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...PM CLIMATE...AMS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.