Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 261735 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 135 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE PROVIDE DRY WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC...THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY INCREASING MOISTURE OVER TIME INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... ADDED SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. AS OF 925 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. AS OF 711 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... A FEW MORE CLOUDS EVIDENT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT OVERALL WILL STILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION... PUSH OF MOISTURE AT 8H ANGLING TOWARD SE WV...WITH 00Z NAM APPEARING TO CATCH THIS A LITTLE BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS. AM LEANING TOWARD THE NAM IN TERMS OF SKY COVER TODAY...SO WILL WORK MORE CLOUDS EARLY IN SE WV/FAR SW VA WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE CLOUDINESS IN SE WV TO SCATTER OUT. MODELS DIFFER TONIGHT...WITH FRONTAL WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS SHOWING SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ENTERING SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC PIEDMONT...PRINTING OUT SOME SHOWERS. SEEMS OVERDONE AND FORECAST WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH SUNSHINE SHOULD WARM IT UP FAST IN THE DRIER AIR MASS. TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 80S FROM THE ROANOKE VALLEY EAST TO THE PIEDMONT. TONIGHT...TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO MILDER THAN TONIGHT WITH FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHEAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 50S MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 60 EAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BEFORE STARTING TO LIFT NORTH INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...MAINTAINING NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FLOW...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AT BAY AND MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES...COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE VALUES. FLOW TURNS EASTERLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS WHILE PIVOTING AROUND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. SLOWLY... ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MIX FURTHER INTO THE REGION FROM EAST TO WEST...BRINGING INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND THE RETURN OF ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FARTHER AWAY FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SURROUNDING THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH...AND HOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE MOISTURE RETURN POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH HIGHER POP VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY...WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY. FOR NOW...KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF LIKELY TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY... MEAN UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE INFILTRATED BY SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ATTEMPT TO LOWER 5H HEIGHTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TO WHAT DEGREE THIS OCCURS REMAINS UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL TO SEE RIDGING STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH APPROACH OF ERIKA FROM THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER DOES APPEAR THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA...BETWEEN THE RESIDUAL FRONT OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST...AND MID LEVEL WEAKNESS TO THE NW. GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE PER THE WEAK FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF ANY UPSTREAM FEATURES AT TIMES...AND SEEN IN LATEST MODEL PWATS...SUPPORTS SOME INCREASE IN DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE RIDGES WHERE AIDED BY OROGRAPHICS...WITH BEST CHANCES PERHAPS SUNDAY GIVEN SOME COOLING ALOFT...AND POSSIBLE REMNANT WAVE OF DANNY SLIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT PER GFS BEFORE UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH PC WEST TO MOSTLY SUNNY EAST DURING THE DAY INCLUDING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WILL BECOME MORE HOT/HUMID THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARMING ALOFT WHICH SHOULD PUSH HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 EAST WITH MOSTLY 80S ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO MTHE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF LATE NIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE. EXCEPTION TO THE VFR WILL BE THE TYPICAL LATE NIGHT FOG THREAT OVER LWB/BCB THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/WP NEAR TERM...KK/WP SHORT TERM...JM/NF LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...KK/WP

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