Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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774 FXUS61 KRNK 092048 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 348 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system rotates into the area tonight with windy conditions and mountain snow showers. Weak high pressure builds in briefly Monday before clipper arrives Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EST Saturday... The deformation snow band will be exiting stage right later this afternoon/early this evening, just as low pressure moving through the Great Lakes pushes a cold front into the region from the west. There will be a good push of cold air behind the front and the low level wind field will steadily amplify overnight. This will create upslope snow showers west of the Blue Ridge along with very gusty winds. A couple of inches of accumulation are possible for the higher elevations, with accumulations of 2 to 5 inches for western Greenbrier county. While no snow accumulations are expected further east, wet and slushy roadways will become slick as falling temperatures refreeze roadways. Expect wind gusts will generally be less than 40MPH so no wind advisory is planned at this time. Upslope snow showers wind down to flurries Sunday morning, but gusty conditions will persist before gradually slackening during the afternoon. Temperatures will be well below normal through Sunday with lows tonight in the teens to lower 20s and highs Sunday in the upper 30s/near 40 east of the Blue Ridge, low/mid 30s west. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EST Saturday... Cold northwest flow to persist this forecast period with potential for mountain snow showers and Flurries. Disturbance moving across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early Tuesday will provide best chance for snow shower coverage with some light snow accumulation possible from the Highlands of WV south across the western NRV and into the High Country of NC. Temperatures will be seasonably cold Monday, the trend 10 to 15 degrees below normal Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 PM EST Saturday... Upper air pattern is forecast to remain amplified with cold upper level trough over eastern North America. Embedded short waves passing through the general flow pattern will result in reinforcing shots of cold air and potential for mountain snow showers and flurries. This will also maintain elevated wind speeds with brisk northwest northwest winds across the ridges. Temperatures will favor the colder side of normal from Wednesday through Friday...trending back closer to normal for the weekend as the upper flow trends more zonal. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM EST Saturday... The deformation snow band will be exiting stage right later this afternoon/early this evening, just as low pressure moving through the Great Lakes pushes a cold front into the region from the west. This will allow flight conditions to trend to VFR east of the Blue Ridge, while locations west of the Ridge will rabidly descend to MVFR/IFR early tonight. There will be a good push of cold air behind the front and the low level wind field will steadily amplify overnight. This will create upslope snow showers west of the Blue Ridge along with very gusty winds. Expect MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in snow and blowing snow at KBLF and KLWB. Expect some MVFR cigs to make it to KBCB but any precipitation will likely be flurries. Wind gusts will start to increase early tonight with gusts at or above 30kt for KROA through daybreak. Gust conditions will spread east of the Piedmont Sunday morning as diurnal heating mixed the boundary layer and allows higher momentum air to reach the surface. Upslope snow showers wind down to flurries Sunday morning, but gusty conditions will persist before gradually slackening during the afternoon. Extended Discussion... VFR conditions then return Sunday evening through Monday. Next chance for sub-VFR conditions is with a clipper system Tuesday, particularly in the western mountains. These sub-VFR could linger into Wednesday as northwest flow continues. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for NCZ001-002-018. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for NCZ003>006-019-020. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Sunday for WVZ508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...PM/WP LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...MBS/WP

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