Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 240746 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 346 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure off the coast will establish a warmer and more moist southerly flow across the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region into the weekend. A slow moving cold front will enter from the west on Sunday with a chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Our weather then looks to remain unsettled through next week as a series of disturbances move across the central and southern part of the country, keeping a chance for showers and thunderstorms in our forecast through Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 345 AM EDT Friday... It`s looking like a quiet end to the workweek as an upper level ridge is the dominant weather feature over the Appalachians, though there will be a fair amount of cloud cover around. At the surface, high pressure along the middle Atlantic coast will continue to push offshore today. Satellite imagery shows some lower clouds extending back from the NC mountains toward the Gulf coast, guidance supports return flow around the high drawing these clouds up into the region this afternoon along and east of the Blue Ridge into Southside. Additionally, a short wave will swing through the Ohio valley along a warm front on the rim of the upper ridge. This is generating some shower/storms well off to our northwest, but expect some showers to brush by to our north today with lower clouds extending southward into the region. Quiet weather then continues tonight as the ridge axis crosses the region and high pressure at the surface remains parked off the mid Atlantic coast. With a deepening southerly flow, temperatures will moderate considerably from readings yesterday with highs about 10 degrees warmer which will be above normal for late March.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EDT Thursday... A pattern transition will be underway this weekend as predominate northwest flow aloft comes to an end, replaced by unsettled split flow with series of southern stream storm systems of Pacific origin to parade across the CONUS. First in this series of storm systems will arrive Sunday. Until its arrival, the first half of the weekend will be dry, Saturday certainly a great day to be outdoors with temperatures in the 60s/70s. Late Saturday, moisture will be on the increase west of the Appalachians per the approach of an upper low to lifting out of the Southern Plains. Showers/thunderstorms associated with this system will be advancing east across the Tennessee Valley into far southwest VA or southern WV Saturday night. The upper low will then take a more northward track into the Ohio Valley and weaken as it encounters the upper ridge along the eastern seaboard. This will result in a weakening of the thunderstorm activity as it crosses the mountains, but still sufficient forcing, instability, to promote high probability of showers areawide for Sunday. Temperatures Sunday will be just a tad lower thanks to cloud cover and precipitation, but with increasing dewpoints, overnight lows will be warmer. With regard to QPF, models are in fairly good agreement, advertising 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain along and west of the Blue Ridge Sunday, and 1/4 to 1/2 inch east of the Blue Ridge. Severe weather is not expected for our CWA for this first system. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Thursday... Next in a series of upper-level low pressure areas will move from the Southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley/Central Appalachians late Monday into Tuesday. While this system will again be weakening as it moves toward the western Atlantic upper ridge, it will have somewhat better dynamics and instability to work with than the Sunday system. Therefore, a chance of thunderstorms anticipated areawide for Tuesday afternoon. This still does not look like a widespread severe weather maker for our CWA, but slightly better potential for at least some stronger storms with small hail per warmer temperatures, higher surface dewpoints and slightly better instability compared to the Sunday system. Rainfall amounts again appear to be in the 1/4 to 3/4 inch range over all with this event. A quieter midweek period appears in order as another upper- level system deepens but slows as it moves into Texas and an upper ridge amplifies across the eastern U.S. A weak area of high pressure from the Great Lakes filters into the area for midweek. By Friday, this aforementioned system will move into the Mid-Atlantic region as yet another upper-level low pressure area moves from the southwest U.S. into Texas. Temperatures will remain mild through the upcoming week with no significant intrusions of Canadian air. A slight cooling will be noted midweek, but temperatures will favor the warm side of normal with highs in the 60s/70s and lows mainly in the 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 240 AM EDT Friday... High pressure along the middle Atlantic coast will continue to push offshore today and keep our winds from a southerly direction. Satellite imagery shows some lower clouds extending back from the NC mountains toward the Gulf coast, and guidance indicates that our southerly flow will help draw this moisture up into the region this afternoon mainly east of the Blue Ridge into Southside VA. While conditions will remain VFR, expect cigs to develop this afternoon with a downward trend down and approach MVFR at KDAN. Additionally, a short wave will swing through the Ohio valley along a warm front on the rim of the upper ridge. This is generating some shower/storms well off to our northwest, but expect some showers to brush by to the north with some lower VFR clouds extending down into KLWB. Expect VFR conditions to persist into Friday night. Winds will become a bit gust this afternoon with gusts around 20kts expected mainly east of the Ridge. Extended Aviation Discussion... Moisture starts to increase over the weekend ahead of an upper- level low pressure area moving northeast from the Southern Plains. Precipitation is not expected until Sunday when sub- VFR conditions become more of a possibility. Otherwise looking at overall VFR to start the weekend with most lower cigs remaining west of the area until later Sunday at this point. Periods of unsettled weather will continue into the first half of next week as a series of upper-level lows track from west to east across the U.S. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...RAB LONG TERM...RAB AVIATION...MBS/AL

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