Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 250541 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 141 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN STALL...AND BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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AS OF 100 AM EDT SATURDAY... MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF 822 PM EDT FRIDAY... OTHER THAN FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE...QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS THIS EVENING AND LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT PER EVENING SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME LOW TOPPED SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS THE SW UNDER THE MID LEVEL INVERSION THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS MIXING WEAKENS AND MOISTURE POOLS A BIT. ALSO SEEING A DECENT LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHICH THE HRRR KEEPS FOCUS ALONG AS CU SPREADS OUT UNDER THE DRY AIR ABOVE AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. SINCE THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN OVERDONE WILL ONLY KEEP AN ISOLATED MENTION GOING SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE A FEW MORE HOURS WITH PC TO CLEAR ELSW. OTHER CONCERN WITH POSSIBLE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS EASTERN SLOPES LATE...AND EXPANSE OF FOG BY FORMATION BY DAWN ESPCLY VALLEYS AND OUT EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF FOG SO INCLUDED SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG VALLEYS AND LEFT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA IN PATCHY COVERAGE. OTRW BUMPED DOWN LOW TEMPS A LITTLE IN THE WEST WHILE RAISING SOME SE BUT OVERALL 60S WITH A FEW 50S DEEPER VALLEYS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH LOSE OF HEATING...CLOUDS WILL FADE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. AN INVERSION WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS INVERSION MAY BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER THE AREA AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS NOT BEING OVERCOME BY THIS STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY HAVE PATCHY MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKER THAN THE STRATUS DECK WILL. LIKE THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS SMALL BUT POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA BLUE RIDGE. IT APPEARS SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 318 PM EDT FRIDAY... YOU CAN EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMER WX INTO SUNDAY...WITH WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY PLUS SOME ENERGY ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STRONGER STORMS TO FORM MONDAY...BUT STILL MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE...WITH LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE CREEPING BACK UP WITH HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S EAST WARMING TO THE MID 60S MTNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 70 EAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 138 PM EDT FRIDAY... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY SITUATED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP US A BIT ON THE HUMID SIDE WITH CLOSE TO SEASONAL TEMPS...HIGHS 80S MOUNTAINS TO LOW 90S EAST...WITH ONLY A SCATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIODS. AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD OPENS UP AS IT MOVES EAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. MODELS ARE FAVORING HEIGHTS LOWERING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING INROADS INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL START TO INCREASE THE THREAT OF STORMS. AT THE MOMENT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE THE USUAL CHANCE RANGE OF 30-50 PERCENT...BUT THINK NEXT FRIDAY WOULD START TO FAVOR HIGHER POPS. TEMPS SHOULD FALL OFF SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL THINK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST...WE SHOULD STILL SEE 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S AROUND 70 EAST. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 130 AM EDT SATURDAY... EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL GENERATE PATCHY STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE POCKETS OF FOG THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL HINDER FOG THIS MORNING. BUT...STILL BELIEVE THAT WE WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR KLWB. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT DAN...AND BCB. ANY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY...WITH DAYTIME HEATING ERODING ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY AFTER 25/13Z. EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BRING REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA... WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIDGES WITH HEATING. COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR MENTION IN TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST... HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN CONTROL OVERHEAD...AND MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG. SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE ENHANCED BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE COAST. A RETURN OF HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...JH/RCS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...KK/NF/PW

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